Dow Jones Bearish Price Action Gameplan for 12/16High-impact news should bring significant volume on Monday. Based on this, I anticipate a strong buy from 5:00 AM to 8:30 AM CST, potentially pushing price back up to FOMC Support before resuming its bearish trend toward 43,575 —a move worth approximately 358 ticks. If the market grants me my desired volume, I may be tempted to surf a few concepts; however, after Friday's successful hold, I’m leaning toward placing my sell position and holding it for the remainder of the session.
I anticipate price selling down to 43,300 by Wednesday FOMC, as this level aligns with the overall bullish trend we're currently in. Dow Jones often respects structures and trends, so I’m banking on it continuing to do so.
My only concern is that the election candle drove the trend higher than the original bull trend, so we may or may not reach my anticipated target. @Dow_Jones_Maestro posted a perfect example of this, check out his idea linked below:
Let’s lock in and collect those ticks!
YM1
Weekly Forex Forecast: Buy The S&P & NASDAQ. Wait On The DOW!This forecast is for the week of DEC 16 - 20th.
The SP500 & NAS100 are bullish and buys are the order for the week. The DOW Jones is weeker, sliding down as the USD climbs. Be careful here, as the DOW tends to travel it's own path at times.
FOMC is Wednesday. Stay vigilant and disciplined this week!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOW JONES: Neutral 1D means buy opportunity.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.536, MACD = 330.150, ADX = 20.923) as it is on the bearish wave of the 4H Channel Up, towards the 4H MA200, which on November 19th priced the last HL. The 4H RSI got oversold and rebounded today above its MA period, which twice before has been a buy signal. We are going long here, aiming at the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 45,400).
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12/11 NQ & YM Market AnalysisMarket Insight: Bears in Control, Detox in Progress
Today's market sentiment mirrors yesterday’s, with bears continuing to dominate. Traders should respect the bearish trend and prioritize short-selling strategies.
🔻 Bearish Strategy Insight:
The market needs to release recent pressure to achieve optimal "detox" effects. Only after a sufficient correction can the market stabilize, setting the stage for potential bullish attempts later.
🔺 Bullish Opportunity Watch:
While bears maintain control, conservative traders are advised to stay on the sidelines. If bearish momentum weakens after pressure release, bulls may seize the opportunity to challenge the life line levels. These levels will serve as critical resistance points for any upward attempts.
📌 Trading Suggestions:
Short-Term Bearish Bias: Follow the trend, avoid counter-trend trades.
Bullish Entry Timing: Wait for bearish momentum to fade before considering long positions cautiously.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and not investment advice.
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DOW JONES 25-year Cycles show the clear picture you should know.Almost 8 months ago (April 12, see chart below), just when Dow Jones (DJI) was recovering from April's correction, we sent a clear message not to lose sight of the greater picture and to stay bullish:
The reason was the index' clear cyclical pattern since the February 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. The index has grown by +17% since that analysis (from 38459 to 45080) and we can't see a reason not to complete the pattern and hit our 48850 Target, which is our projection for this Cycle's Top.
On this updated chart is on the 1W time-frame, in contrast with April's which was on the 1M, we have added to key elements. The Channel Up that is dictating the pace of the Bull Cycle since the Feb 2009 bottom and the Fibonacci retracement levels, which show that after the Bull Cycle topped, the subsequent Bear Cycle corrected within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci Zone at least before the bottom was formed.
In fact, all Cycles hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) upon the Bear corrections and those didn't start before the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was broken (1M candle close below). Our 48850 Target is technically the minimum estimate as that was the % rise of the previous one (Cycle 4), which was the least aggressive compared to others (Cycle 3 = +77.19%, Cycle 2 = +75.09%, Cycle 1 = +99.62%). If Cycle 5 peaks higher, we will draw the Fibonacci retracement levels from that top and re-adjust our expected 0.382 Fibonacci bottom for the Bear Cycle (or if the 1M MA50 gets hit first).
As far as timing of the Cycle 5 Top is concerned, we expect that to be on December 2025 the earliest, again based on the Cycle with the minimum time length (Cycle 3), excluding Cycle 1 which was the most aggressive as it was the first after the U.S. Housing Crisis bottom.
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DOW JONES cyclical trend points bottom is near.DOW JONES / US30 is trading inside a Channel Up pattern for the past 4 months.
Right now it is on a technical pullback towards the 4hour MA200, having already crossed under the 4hour MA50.
The 4hour MA200 was the level that supported the previous pullback that bottomed on November 19th.
Inside this pattern, every pullback corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and was a buy opportunity while the 4hour RSI turned oversold under its 30.00 level.
Time this buy entry and target 45600, which is the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, the level that priced all prior highs inside this Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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12/10 NQ & YM Market Analysis: Bears in Control, Awaiting RebouAs expected, U.S. markets continued their decline yesterday, with both the Nasdaq (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM) indices retreating further. The bears have firmly taken the lead, pushing the market downward and releasing selling pressure.
📌 Key Price Levels (Chip Life Line):
Dow Jones (YM) Life Line: 44,511
Nasdaq (NQ) Life Line: 21,468
🔴 Market Outlook: Bears Lead, Watch for Rebound Signals
📉 Early Session: Bears Maintain Pressure
The bearish momentum from yesterday is expected to persist through the early session. Selling pressure may continue dominating, making early entries risky. It’s wise to stay patient and avoid premature buying.
📈 Late Session: Rebound Potential
If selling pressure eases, the market could stabilize and attempt a rebound later in the session. Watch for key price levels being tested or reclaimed near the life lines for signs of recovery.
⏳ Strategy Insight: Stay Patient, Wait for Signals
With bears holding the upper hand, let the market fully digest selling pressure. Focus on observing how the market interacts with critical levels, especially near the life lines, before considering entry opportunities.
📢 Action Plan:
Monitor closely for signs of market stabilization or reversal.
Stay cautious and avoid hasty entries until support levels are confirmed.
Watch for potential breakouts or retests of key life lines for better trading signals.
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Weekly Forex Forecast: SP500, NAS, DOW ... Wait For BUYS!The equity markets closed the month with all time highs. Next week, there should be some
carry over. The week may open bearish in the short term, but I believe longs will be the ticket to ride!
* I will consider longs in SP500 and DOW before buying the NASDAQ, as it is weaker. There, I would take valid sells before I short SP500 or DOW JONES.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOW JONES: Short term consolidation to lead to 46,100.Dow Jones is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.961, MACD = 523.800, ADX = 24.313) as the bullish trend inside the 5 month Channel Up is still intact. In fact it is not just intact but the index is basically on All Time High levels, supported by the 4H MA50. The Channel Up is highly symmetric and technically we believe we are on the same level as September 30th. The index was inside a shorter term Channel Up, which after a 4H MA100 test, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI was as evident then as it is now. The two fractals are virtually identical, hence we project a similar result. Buy and target the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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DOW JONES High Channel Up symmetry points to 46000.Dow Jones (DJI) easily hit our 45000 Target as suggested on our November 20 idea (see chart below), and immediately turned sideways, consolidating basically for the past 6 days:
This is not the first time that we've come across this consolidation within the 4-month Channel Up as the exact same sequence was last seen during September 20 - October 08. As with today's price action, the consolidation also took place above the 1.0 Fibonacci level and once completed, it gave one final push to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before correcting back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we now set a new Target for the end of the year at 46000.
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DOW JONES targeting 165000 in the next 8 years.Dow Jones / US30 is following very distinct and easily recognizable patterns over the years and decades and this chart gives you the complete picture since the 1930s and the Great Depression.
We are currently well underway inside the Bull Cycle, which is the market's 3rd major these past 100 years.
With the support of the 1M MA50, this Bull Cycle (via a Channel Up pattern) is expected to continues rising until the point it breaks aggressively over the pattern towards the last years of the Bubble in 2029-2033.
From bottom to top, the previous two Bull Cycles rose by an incredible +2500%.
This means that long term and patient investors can still buy now and enjot another 8 years of immense growth and returns, targeting 165000.
Note that the RSI underneath the chart is on the 12M timeframe but achieves displaying the situatio more accurately than any. Clear Bear Cycle bottoms and breakouts over the MA when the Channel Up Bull Cycle started among all Cycles.
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DOW JONES: A few days of consolidation can push it to 46,100Dow Jones is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.114, MACD = 449.010, ADX = 35.064) and is printing a sequence much like post September 20th. That was a consolidation Channel that paved the way to the next bullish wave on the 1.5 Fib extension. This is a 4 month Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50. As long as it does, aim for the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25th: SP500, NAS, DOW = BUY THEM!The three indices are bullish. They each had a Daily +FVG they found support in, and were bullish from that point of contact. The DOW is the strongest, and may be the best bet, even though it is a wildcard most times. The SP500 is probably the safest buy, as the NASDAQ is the weakest of the three. If things turn bearish for any reason, the best short will be in the NASDAQ.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOW JONES bouncing on the 4H MA200 and 0.5 Fibonacci.Dow Jones (DJI) found Support yesterday exactly on its 4H MA200 (red trend-line), after just a brief break of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. The dominant pattern has been a Channel Up since the August 05 Low and within it, every 0.5 Fib test from the previous Low, has been the most effective buy entry as it started the new Bullish Leg.
The technical symmetry within this pattern is astounding as every Bullish Leg hit its 1.236 Fibonacci extension, completing a +8.30% rise. The ROC Higher Lows indicates that a rebound should be expected right now.
We haven't had a 1.236 Fib extension since the elections Low, so naturally take this 4H MA200 / 0.5 Fib bounce to buy if you haven't and target 45000 (also +8.30% rise).
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DOW JONES: Bottom buy signal. Target 45,600.Dow Jones just turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.982, MACD = 339.670, ADX = 28.026) as it hit today the 4H MA200 after exactly 2 weeks. This is getting very close to the bottom of the 14 month Channel Up. Technically the last two HLs were formed when the 1D RSI double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold limit. Overall, this is a good enough buy opportunity to target yet another +6.80% bullish wave (TP = 45,600).
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DOW JONES inside a bearish wave. Expect lower prices.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up since August.
However at the moment it is still on a bearish wave.
Three out of four bearish waves of this Channel Up hit the MA50 (1d) before reversing.
With the price rejected now on the MA50 (1h), this is still a sell opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 43000.
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is also declining. Once it turns sideways, it will be the signal to reverse to buying.
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Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 18 - 22: SP500, NAS, DOW, GOLDThis is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 18 -22nd.
The Big 3 Indexes started to pullback last week from there elections fueled rallies. Patience is required, as we look for confirmations of a market shift from bullish to bearish.
Gold also retraced last week, and may may struggle against a surging USD. Patience here will benefit traders, as we wait until the market tips its hand.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOW JONES 4H Golden Cross extending the rally.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent pre-election buy signal (October 29, see chart below) as it bottomed on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and just below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), in similar fashion as the September 11 Low, which then rallied to the 1.236 Fib extension:
As you can see, we hit our 44000 Target, which was again the 1.236 Fib ext, but a new bullish possibility emerges. The 4H RSI is about to turn bearish (below 45.00) after being overbought (above 70.00) for 7 days. Last time this happened was on August 22, the fractals are virtually identical. During that time, the price made a Higher Low and continued to peak after a +8.30% rise in total.
After another 0.5 Fib correction, the next Bullish Leg if the 3-month Channel Up was also +8.30%, indicating that there is high symmetry between the Legs of this pattern. Notice also the presence of a 4H Golden Cross both on the current as well as on the August Leg.
As a result, since we still have some distance before completing a +8.30% Bullish Leg increase, we go long again as long as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, targeting 45000.
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DOW JONES Short term signal for fast profit.Dow Jones pulled back from Monday's high but the price action started to reverse today.
As long as the MA50 (4h) holds, we expect a quick rebound (at least) like the ones after the October 16th and September 18th pull backs.
Those rebounds gave rallies of +1.57% and 1.79% respectively.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 44450 (+1.57%).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is also showing a temporary bottom similar to October 16th and September 18th.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: Short term target 44,850.Dow Jones is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.283, MACD = 438.030, ADX = 26.531) and on top of that, the 4H RSI has been inside overbought territory since November 5th. The price action remains inside the Channel Up that started in August but every time the 4H RSI trades sideways like this on overbought ranges, the price enters a smaller Channel Up and leads to the peak HH. That's what we are aiming for now (TP = 44,850).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 11th: BUY S&P500, NASDAQ, & DOW!This is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 11th.
The Big 3 Indexes are strong, trading at ATHs. There is no reason to look for anything other than buys this week.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Chart Idea - Bearish Setup on YM1!E-Mini Dow Jones had been making a bearish divergence on daily TF since July 2024. We also have been seeing it in an upward trend since Aug of this year. It finally it breaking today. It seems that the daily candle will close below the trend line today. If it does, we can look at the beautiful short setup on the retracement.
Entry - 42950-43000
SL - 43600
TP1 - 42000
TP2 - 41000
We hardly see these kind of clean setups. There is a high probabilty that it will play out before elections in November.
Not a financial advice !!