Dow Jones Gap Fill TradeHow many gaps get filled?
Gaps in the chart fill 80% of the time .
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DOW JONES Key trade focused on the MA50 (4h).Dow Jones has been trading inside a Channel Up since the October 27th Low.
The MA50 (4h) has been the main support throughout this time, having stayed unbroken since November 1st.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price as long as the MA50 (4h) holds.
2. If the MA50 (4h) breaks, sell.
Targets:
1. 38550 (+4.06% rise, the lowest throughout the Channel Up).
2. 36400 (the MA200 4h).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has been trading under a Falling Resistance, which indicates a potential Bearish Divergence. It favors a break under the Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Huge Bearish Divergence on 4HDow Jones (DJI) is trading within a very aggressive Channel Up since the October 27 bottom that has seen it rise almost by +17%, making new a All Time High (ATH) in the process. In the meantime it is about to hit the Higher Highs trend-line that has been acting as a Resistance, rejecting similar Channel Up patterns since April 14.
What is more alarming than this Resistance, is the Channel Down that has emerged on the 4H RSI. The other two similar Channel Down patterns that emerged after the RSI got overbought, did so right before the index peaked on the Higher Highs trend-line, starting two corrective Bearish Megaphone patterns. Those structures reached at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous Higher Low, and the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Based on this occurrence, we expect yet another Higher Highs rejection that will test at least the 0.618 Fib at 36750, which is our current sell target. Potentially, if the selling pressure is pilled up and transitions to the 1D time-frame, it can reach as low as the 0.5 Fibonacci from the October bottom at 35150.
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DOW JONES Correction expected due to insanely overbought RSI.Dow Jones (DJI) easily hit last week's (December 12) target (37000) at the top of the 2-month Channel Up (see chart below) with the price grinding ever since on its top:
That was a short-term signal, today we shift our attention to the medium-term and the 1D time-frame where the 1D RSI is 'insanely' overbought near 87.50, a level it hasn't touched since January 2018. In fact if we look a little longer, we can see a perfectly fitting sequence with today's price action in late 2016. The 1D RSI got hugely overbought at 87.40 on December 13 2016 and pulled-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before resuming the uptrend.
This overbought 1D RSI peak was made after two straight Channel Downs leading to approximately +9.58% and +14.50% rises, which is quite similar to what's been happening since April. This tells us not to engage in any buying any more, even though due to being on the end of year euphoria and post Fed rate cut anticipation, it can rise some more. But the risk is higher now than buying near the 1D MA50 again.
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DOW JONES has entered the SELL ZONEDow Jones / US30 has broken into the 0.786 - 1.000 Fibonacci zone, which is the top range of the Channel Up since September 2022.
That is the most efficient range to start adding shorts as a corrective Channel Down is expected to start in January.
Wait for the 1day MACD to form a Bearish Cross.
Target 35450, which is the 0.236 Fibonacci level and has been touched by both previous Bearish Waves of the Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Channel Up still intact.Dow Jones reached the top of the Channel Up that started in late October and turned sideways.
The longer this pattern stays intact, the more every pull back is a buy opportunity.
The MA50 (4h) is supporting since November 1st, showing the sheer strength of this bullish trend.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell below the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 37800 (under the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was the target top of the mid November consolidation).
2. 35600 (projected contact with the MA200 4h).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) sequences among the two bullish legs are identical, confirming the bullish sentiment towards the 1.382 Fibonacci.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: Correction imminent. Buy at the right time.Dow Jones made new All Time High yesterday and today reached the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level of the 14 month Channel Up pattern. Needless to say it is massively overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 79.702, MACD = 696.100, ADX = 90.584). The sheer strenght of this rise since the October 27th bottom can only be compared to the first rise of the Channel in October-November 2022.
After almost reaching the 0.786 Channel Fibonacci level, it pulled back to the 0.236 horizontal Fibonacci and then moved to a +19% rise before a consolidation that made the Channel's blow off top. Consequently, we cease our buying at the moment and will wait for that short term correction to the 0.236 Fibonacci (36,160). This will be our next buy entry to target the +19% extension (TP = 38,450).
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DOW JONES Does this rally still surprise you?Two months ago (October 11) we made a bold statement calling for "the start of a new Bull rally under our nose" on Dow Jones (DJI) (see chart below):
Many traders/ investors/ market participants have been surprised by the current November - December rally but in reality they shouldn't as the index is methodically repeating the 2016 - 2017 Rising Wedge pattern, as we've shown on that analysis. We are now at the level where the price is breaking above that pattern (blue circle), which comes after the 1W RSI makes a fake-out break breach below the Higher Lows and then rebounds.
On the current analysis we expand the chart more, in order to show you that the very same Rising Wedge also emerged from May 2011 to December 2012. We are therefore on a +10 year cyclical pattern which the all three Wedges not only displaying identical break-outs/ fake-outs but also similar duration.
The 2011/12 pattern peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, the 2015/16 a little higher on the 3.0 Fib ext. We can assume that this progression could give a new top on a higher Fib, but if we take the worst case scenario of the model (2.618 Fib), we can expect a High around 42900.
Check out also how the Sine Waves grasp fairly accurately the cyclical movement on those bottoms and peaks during these past +10 years. Another important observation is that after the index broke above the Rising Wedge in 2016, it didn't offer any significant dips to buy. Rare buy entry opportunities existed only on the middle trend-line (orange) of the Bollinger Bands. The 2013 break-out gave significantly more dips buy opportunities, 7 in total all marginally below the Bollinger middle, before the 2.618 Fibonacci peak.
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DOW JONES Channel Up still holding, aiming at All Time Highs.Dow Jones (DJI) maintains its bullish trade within the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 27 Low. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since November 01 and as long as it continues to do so, the index is more likely to test the 36975 All Time High (Jan 05 2022). Especially since it is currently on a 4H MACD Bullish Cross.
The previous two MACD Bullish Crosses have delivered rises of around +2.70% to the top of the Channel Up. Another +2.70% rise will send the price above 37000 and that is our target. If however the index closes below the 4H MA50, we will take the long's loss and reverse to a short immediately, targeting the bottom of the Channel Up. If the price closes below it, we will re-sell and target Support 1 at 35300, where potentially contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) can be made for the first time since November 02.
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DOW JONES Next stop 37000Dow Jones held the MA50 (4h) today after the initial NFP decline.
This keeps the Channel Up intact on its upper layers, aiming for a new Higher High.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the MA50 (4h) holds.
2. Sell if it breaks.
Targets:
1. 37000 (Fibonacci 1.78 extension, like the Nov 15th Higher High).
2. 35700 (bottom of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) rebounded exactly on the level (Support 1) the Nov 9th did. The two legs are so far very symmetrical and promt to the extension of the Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Channel Up showing the way to All Time Highs.Dow Jones (DJI) hit the top of the Channel Up without a pull-back, which as we noted (see chart below), was a bullish break-out signal above Resistance 1 (35700)
So you might be wondering, what about Santa's rally? Is it still feasible? It is technically, even if the index breaks lower next week. So far the short-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame is holding, with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting right on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). As long as this holds, we remain bullish, targeting the 36960 All Time High (ATH). If it breaks, we will short-term target 35300 (first level of the dashed Support range) and then get on the reversal. Ideally we would like to see the RSI oversold on the 30.00 mark before entering a low risk buy.
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DOW JONES Sell signal at the top of the 1 year Channel UpDow Jones hit the top of the 1 year Channel Up, achieving an unprecedented High of overbought conditions on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 75.323, MACD = 557.860, ADX = 77.014). The first signs of exhaustion are given by the Stock RSI, which is pulling back. So far this can only be a short term sell signal so we are only aiming for the minimum retrace of the 0.236 Fibonacci level (TP = 35,550). Beyond that we need to see a closing under it in order to make an extension to the 1D MA50 (technically) but that would negate a seasonal Christmas rally. So for now take we keep only a short term horizon.
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Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:DIA chart anaylsis/mapping.
DIA ETF on relative strength compared to recent SPY/QQQ performance, indicating potential market rotation.
Trading scenarios:
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib.
Shallow pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / ascending trend-line (green dashed) / gap fill confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = gap fills / descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone.
Deeper pullback #1 = Golden Pocket Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue).
Capitulation #2 = gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = gap fills / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
DOW JONES One final push before correction.Dow Jones / US30 made a new High on its November rally today.
This is all part of the bullish sequence from the bottom to the top of the 1 year Channel Up pattern.
The last blow off top rally that formed the July 27th High completed a +6.30% rise from the moment it tested and held the 1day MA50.
That would now be at 35960, above both Resistance A and B levels.
As a result there is still time for you to buy and target 35960 for quick profits.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Pull-back or Santa rally?It's more than 2 weeks since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI), giving a bullish rebound signal on the 1D MA50 (see chart below) that quickly hit its target:
The price is now significantly above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is roughly where the previous bullish wave of March - April took a medium-term pause and pulled-back first to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The % rise so far though (+9.50%) is almost the same as April's (+9.03%).
With the 1D RSI however printing a sideways sequence on the 70.00 overbought mark, very similar to April's, it is worth attempting now a sell targeting the 1D MA50 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 34300. Since however we are very close to the (seasonaly bullish) Christmas period, if Resistance 1 (35700) breaks, we will take the loss on the short and instead buy towards the top of the 12 month Channel Up and target 36300, as part of the so called Santa's rally.
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DOW JONES: The top is close. Pullback expected.Dow Jones is unfolding the second rally sequence of the 1 year Channel Up and has reached today the 0.786 Fibonacci level of July's High. The 1D technical outlook is about to turn overbought (RSI = 68.650, MACD = 236.580, ADX = 32.415) and as the rally approaches the R1 level (35,100) as well as being almost on the +9.05% range from the bottom, we are looking towards a late April peak formation and pullback.
The pullback is expected to be at a -2.75% minimum, like June 23rd that reached the 1D MA50. Sell, TP = 34,300.
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DOW JONES Consolidation leading to a Christmas rally?Dow Jones / US30 spent all week above the 1day MA50, in fact Friday's rebound took place exactly on it (Support A at 33850).
This is potentially an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and with the 1day RSI at 60.00 and over its MA, it draws comparisons with the June 15th pattern, which peaked at +6.08%.
That pattern has same measurements as the current Inverse Head and Shoulders and formed the Right Shoulder in 3 weeks, supported by the 1day MA50.
After that another +6.15% leg brought the price to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension.
Similarly, the current Inverse Head and Shoulders may target the 1.786 Fibonacci, which in this case will be a little under the 35700 Resistance B high.
Buy and target 35500 (a little under Fibonacci 1.786).
Previous chart:
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Are we about to see a new era of expansion for the tech sector?This is the Nasdaq to Dow Jones ratio (NDX/DJI) on the 1W time-frame (with the RSI on the 1M), which offers very interesting conclusions as to where we are on the large scale of things, which can be particularly helpful now as the shorting bets have been increased to the most in 5 years.
The recent pull-back since the July Highs, have made market critics call for a stronger correction. for the NDX/DJI pair, this has just been a consolidation. Going back to 2000, the tech sector witnessed a 'biblical' Bear Cycle as the Dotcom Bubble popped. It wasn't until November 2021 that the NDX/DJI ratio reached this 0.47 All Time High (ATH) Resistance but again as we saw, the inflation crisis happened and had a 1 year Bear Cycle.
Now the ratio is almost back to the ATH Resistance and just formed a 1W Golden Cross, which is a very bullish pattern, the first since October 2007. What's really interesting is that this consolidation on a 1W Golden Cross is quite similar to the July 1991 pattern. That fractal was basically the expansion phase that led to the Dotcom Bubble burst. The 1M RSI sequences are similar between the two fractals.
This chart shows us that such expansions take place inside Channel Up patterns. The 1W Golden Cross and a potential break above the 0.47 Resistance, may be the signal telling us that the technology market is starting a new era of expansion and it won't be surprising even fundamentally. Among other technological advancements and inventions, we are in the era of A.I. and that can be the vehicle to grow the market to unprecedented highs just like the internet was in the 1990s fractal that led to the 2000 Dotcom bubble.
Do you think the time to invest in tech long-term is now?
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DOW JONES: Final pump before correction.Dow Jones turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.241, MACD = -34.600, ADX = 33.114) after more than three weeks as it smashed past our target and even crossed over the R1 level (34,150). The inevitable formation of a Golden Cross on the 4H timeframe, indicates that this sequence has one more High left to give on the LH and HH trendlines cross.
The 4H MACD Bearish Cross is very much like October 12th, both took off on a Double Bottom Bullish Cross. This is our last short term buy (TP = 34,500).
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DOW JONES Technical pull back ahead of Golden Cross (4h).Dow Jones is on course to form a Golden Cross on the (4h) time frame within 2 days.
Despite being bullish medium term, this pattern has caused a minor short term pull back all the prior 3 times it emerged in 2023.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 33750 (-1.20% decline, same with all previous cases).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) got overbought on Friday, as it had done all of the previous 3 fractals we are looking at that preceded the Golden Cross (4h). An additional sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Above the 1day MA50 after almost 2 months!Dow Jones / US30 crossed on Friday over the 1day MA50 for the first time since September 15.
It hit Resistance A (34150) which was the October 17th High and completed so far 5 green days in a row almost at the top of the Bearish Megaphone.
The long term pattern is a Channel Up, so there is still considerable upside left.
The 1day RSI also crossed over its Falling Resistance much like the March 29th fractal, which after a short consolidation on Resistance A, it hit Fibonacci 0.786.
Buy if the price crosses over the Bearish Megaphone and target 34950 (0.786 Fibonacci).
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES: Started rising, at least on the short term.Dow Jones went from oversold to neutral on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 51.457, MACD = -63.520, ADX = 28.038) as the price bottomed on the LL trendline of the three month Channel Down and rebounded straight to the 4H MA50 today. This is the short term Resistance, a closing above it confirms the 2nd part of the rally to the 4H MA200.
The 4H MACD is on the same Double Bullish Cross bottom formation as October 4th. The rally that followed rose by +4.05%. Consequently our bullish target (TP = 33,500) is under a max +4.05% range, as well as the 4H MA200 and the dashed LH trendline.
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DOW JONES Best buy opportunity in the last 7 months.Dow Jones (DJI) hit the bottom of the long-term Channel Up pattern by completing leg (e). This is a similar structure to the (a) - (e) sequence that bottomed on March 15. Technically this is the best buy opportunity on the index in the last 7 months. On top of that, the 1D RSI is on Higher Lows during the prices (d) - (e) wave, showcasing a huge Bullish Divergence, the first such since February 24 2022! We can't ignore however the potential 1D Death Cross formation and any bullish approach has to be adjusted short-term.
As for the target, the March rally breached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, therefore giving us the framework to target 35000 (Resistance 1 + 0.786 Fib). Be careful, as failure and/ or rejection on the 34150 October 17 High, will be a bearish signal, aiming at a Lower Low, potentially near Support 2.
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