YM1
US30 Outlook ICT ConceptsDow Jones Industrial Average (US30) Analysis
💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US30, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
💡 Previous Analysis Review:
The price has swept the previous month high (PMH) and the buy-side liquidity (BSL) above it, placing it in a deep premium.
📍 Current Market Overview:
The current price is around 40,920.69. The price has swept the previous week low (PWL) and tapped into the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG).
🔍 Identifying Key Levels:
• PMH: Previous Month High
• PWL: Previous Week Low
• PWH: Previous Week High
• PML: Previous Month Low
• BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
• SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
• EQH: Equal Highs
• EQL: Equal Lows
• FVG: Fair Value Gap, highlighting areas of imbalance
📊 Key Considerations:
• Current Price Position: The price is trading around 40,920.69, after sweeping the PMH and BSL, and now in a deep premium.
• PWL and 4H FVG Interaction: The price has swept the PWL and tapped into the 4H FVG, also aligning with the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) levels.
• OTE Levels: The current price is within the OTE levels, suggesting a potential lower movement.
📈 Bearish Scenario:
Given the current price action and key considerations, a bearish scenario is possible if the following conditions are met:
Target SSL and FVG Below: The price can be expected to go lower from here, targeting the SSL and the FVG below it, or even the PWL, which is close to the equilibrium (50%) of the range.
📉 Bullish Scenario:
A bullish scenario should be considered if the following conditions are met:
Clearing Sell-Side Liquidity: For any bullish scenario and long positions, we need the sell side of the chart to be cleared from liquidity. Once the liquidity is cleared, we can then decide on potential long positions.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary:
Bearish Expectation: The expectation is for the price to potentially move lower, targeting the SSL and the FVG below it, or even the PWL, which is close to the equilibrium (50%) of the range.
Bullish Expectation: For a bullish scenario, we need the sell side of the chart to be cleared from liquidity. After the liquidity is cleared, we can consider long positions.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US30 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
DOW JONES Correction isn't over yet. See where to buy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) made initially a direct hit on our July 05 (see 1st chart below) 41000 Target and following the rejection then, is on its way of hitting the 39200 downside Target (July 17, 2nd chart below) as well:
Zooming out to the long-term pattern again after a while, we can still see that the dominant technical structure is a Channel Up that first started on the September 30 2022 inflation crisis bottom.
On the more medium-term, we can isolate a (dashed) Channel Up that started on the April 19 2024 Low. It appears that the current correction is technically its new Bearish Leg. Symmetrically, we should be expecting the new Higher Low to make contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is our first buy entry.
The second is just below the 0.5 Fibonacci Channel level, which can potentially make near contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a strong long-term Support. That scenario is drawn based on the October 27 2023 bottom which was after a symmetrical correction (-9.25%) with the March 20 2023 bottom. Similarly, the current Bearish Leg could be symmetrical (-6.84%) with the correction that led to the April 18 2024 Low.
For both buy entries, our new long-term Target will be 42400 (Higher High on the medium-term Channel Up).
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DOW JONES Top of its Channel. Sell opportunity.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) hit our 41000 Target as projected on our last analysis (July 10, see chart below) and reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 3-month Channel Up:
The Bullish leg competed a rise around the same levels as the previous one (7.87% against 7.65%), so we can assume the symmetry will continue to shape within this pattern and affect the Bearish Legs too.
The previous Bearish Leg made a -5.14% decline. Our Target is 39200, marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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US30 Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US30 , dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
📰 Headlines
CPI News: The actual Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers came in lower than expected, leading to a weakened U.S. Dollar index. This news has had a significant impact on market sentiment, driving price movements.
🔍 Identifying Key Levels
The chart highlights crucial levels and zones influencing the current market behavior:
• PMH: Previous Month High, a resistance level where liquidity might accumulate.
• PWH: Previous Week High, another resistance level indicative of potential liquidity.
• FVG: Fair Value Gap, marking areas of market imbalance.
• Daily FVG: Daily Fair Value Gap, acting as a significant support zone.
• PWL & PML: Previous Week Low and Previous Month Low, key levels for potential liquidity captures.
• BSL: Buy-side Liquidity, indicating where traders have placed their buy orders.
• SSL: Sell-side Liquidity, indicating where traders have placed their sell orders.
📊 Key Considerations
• PWH and PMH Taken: The market has recently taken out the liquidity resting above the previous week high and previous month high.
• BSL: The current price action is approaching areas where buy-side liquidity is likely to be taken out.
• Daily FVG: This zone is a significant support area where the market might gather liquidity before a potential reversal.
📉 Current Price Action
The market has recently taken out the PWH and PMH, capturing the liquidity above these levels. This suggests a potential for further upward movement, especially with the weakened U.S. Dollar due to lower-than-expected CPI numbers. Additionally, the price action has taken out some low resistance liquidity on its way up, driven by the news.
🔄 Bearish Scenario
Although the current sentiment is bullish, it's essential to consider the bearish scenario under certain conditions:
• Reversal from Key Levels: If the price fails to hold above the PWH and PMH levels, we could see a reversal targeting the FVG and Daily FVG zones.
• Targeting PWL & PML: If the bearish sentiment gains strength, the market could target the previous week low and previous month low to capture additional liquidity before a potential reversal.
📈 Bullish Scenario Considerations
The overall bias appears bullish due to several factors:
• CPI News Impact: The lower-than-expected CPI numbers have weakened the U.S. Dollar, contributing to a bullish sentiment.
• Low Resistance Liquidity Taken: The market has already taken out some low resistance sell-side liquidity, clearing the path for further upward movement.
• Targeting BSL: The market is likely to continue higher, aiming to take out the buy-side liquidity.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary
The market has shown a strong bullish sentiment by taking out the PWH and PMH, driven by the CPI news and weakened U.S. Dollar. The price is likely to target further buy-side liquidity, with potential for higher movement. However, traders should be cautious of potential reversals from key resistance levels and consider the possibility of a bearish scenario if these levels do not hold. Understanding these key levels and the current market behavior helps in making informed trading decisions.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US30 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
DOW JONES Looking to break above the 3-month Triangle.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been consolidating within an Ascending Triangle since the April 01 High and recently is being supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 17.
As long as it continues to hold, there are higher probabilities to finally break above the Triangle's top (Resistance 1). If it does, the pattern will transition into a Channel Up that will aim for a new Higher High.
The first Bullish Leg extended to as high as +7.52%. The 1.382 Fibonacci extension is technically the break-out target on these occasions, so our Target is in the middle of those levels at 41000.
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DOW JONES All patterns pointing to a bullish break-out.We have seen today's pattern on one of our previous analyses (June 14, see chart below) but on the 1W time-frame:
Today we make some slight modifications as we view it on the short-term 1D time-frame. Dow Jones (DJI) continues to replicate the sequence of February 14 2023 - May 30 2023 and following the latest 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross, is ready to break above the (bold dashed) Ascending Triangle.
As you can see there is so far high symmetry between the two patterns. The 2023 one made a Higher High following the Triangle break-out on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the bottom. It had two identical Bullish Legs since that Low.
As a result, we are targeting at least 41000 on the medium-term, which is tightly located within the 1.382 Fib and a symmetrical +7.50% Bullish Leg.
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YM Short Trade SetupShort Trade Setup:
Entry: Look for a break below the recent consolidation low, around 39,425. A breakdown with increased selling volume could signal further downside.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss just above the consolidation high or a recent resistance level, around 39,560. This minimizes risk in case of a false breakdown.
Target: Set the initial target at the previous support area of around 39,225, with the potential to extend lower if the bearish trend continues.
YM Long Trade SetupLong Trade Setup:
Entry: Look for a break above the recent consolidation high, around 39,560. If the price breaks above this level with strong volume, it could indicate a bullish move.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss slightly below the consolidation low or a recent support level, around 39,425. This helps protect against a false breakout.
Target: Set the initial target at the recent high of around 39,850, with a potential to extend to higher levels if the bullish momentum continues.
DOW JONES is on an expansion phase until late 2025.Dow Jones (DJI) closed the 2nd straight green month (1M candle), something that isn't discussed a lot amidst the pessimistic views lately across the market. Technically, since the bounce on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), the index entered a new Expansion Leg inside the Channel Up that started after the 2008 Housing Crisis.
Each Bullish Leg has been so far more aggressive than the previous but even if Dow repeats the 'weakest' one, we will still look for a +75.32% rise since the September 2022 bottom. This translates into a long-term Target of 50000, which can extend as long as late 2025.
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DOW JONES Ascending Triangle on its Bullish Leg.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) broke above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) again for the first time in a week, while holding the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. The dominant pattern is an Ascending Triangle and the price action appears to be repeating the previous Leg.
As you can see, following the bottom formation and accumulation (green Arc) on the Higher Lows trend-line, which followed the Bearish Leg in the form of a Channel Down, the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up) posted a strong rally, the 2nd phase of the structure, towards the Ascending Triangle's top at 40080 (Resistance 1) when it broke above the 4H MA200.
As a result, we are bullish as long as the Asc. Triangle holds, targeting 40000 (just under Resistance 1, bottom of the red Zone). If however the price breaks below the Asc. Triangle (Higher Lows), we will take the loss on the buy and open a sell instead, targeting 37250 (Support 1).
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DOW JONES Bottom next week. 42k long-term Target.Dow Jones (DJI) is about to close a red 1W candle, staying flat basically for the 3rd week in a row. May's Double Top on Resistance 1 (40075) technically calls for an approach attempt on Support 1 (37250) but that doesn't invalidate the long-term bullish technicals as the pattern is a 1.5 year Channel Up.
As a result, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting since the week of October 30 2023, closing in towards Support 1, we expect a bottom to be formed next week when the 1W RSI makes a Lower Low. As you can see, the last 3 long-term buy opportunities have been when a 1W RSI Channel Down (blue) made a Lower Low.
Our long-term Target for Q4 is 42000 (just above the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level).
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