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Bullish BTCUSD up through 465 to 500I called the 1/7 breakout up to 465, exactly! Unfortunately, it came much quicker than expected and I didn't get a chance to take profits. So I'm still 100% long. We've seen some colidation back down to the 440 level. Overnight and into today, we saw a sustained breach of the bearish trendline from the 465 high. This looks bullish to me and with my expectation for further Yuan devaluation, I anticipate a move back up to 453 and a re-test of 465, before moving higher to challenge the summer highs at 500.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by simonsays452
Will USDINR breakout and depreciate INR further?China's central bank guided the yuan lower on Thursday FX_IDC:CNYUSD . China's first shock devaluation in August jolted the global financial markets and Indian currency "INR" was also affected by this sudden move. This second devaluation has come at such a crucial time, when money market was expecting strengthening in "INR" and start of appreciating trend. Can "INR" sustain the pressure or it will prevail further devaluation? Go long FX_IDC:USDINR Trade Trigger 67.2 Target 68.6 SLTP 66.7
Long
by GundyaBhau
Yuan fuelling the bitcoin resurgence?The cryptocurrencies have been back in the news recently, in light of Bitcoins astronomic resurgence. Although it would be naive to believe that any one thing can be the driver behind the 150% increase over the past few months, significant parallels however can be drawn with what has been going on in China. Now, I don't want to bore you, but for those who don't know; Chinese nationals can 'only' transfer out of the country the equivalent of $50,00 per year. With China's economy in somewhat of a downward spiral the government are increasingly keen to keep as much money as possible within its economy rather than it being held, invested or spent outside of China. There have been a number of high profile attempts to try and circumvent the restriction, which have had varying degrees of success. The abuse of China UnionPay is the one currently under the Ministry of Public Security’s microscope. Via the use of Union cards in Macau; the former Portuguese enclave has become a hotbed for the use of unregulated POS (Point Of Sale) systems. Chinese nationals can use these vendors to ‘purchase an item’ but in reality receive cash as a result of the transaction. My point is that with these capital controls gaining momentum, a parallel can be drawn with the increase in the price of Bitcoin. As a side note - expect Macau based casino revenues to be detrimentally affected, compounded by other measure being taken by Beijing to restrict the decadence of high profile officials on the island. ( OTC:WYNMY & Galaxy are two Macau based casino behemoths if you’re interested in that side of things). I am ultimately quite bearish in the short-term with the cryptocurrency having already failed to break the November 2014 highs with my target being the 0.5 fib level (circa $360) with 0.618 fib level ($310) presenting a favourable buy opportunity. It's pointless me regurgitating articles so I have put a link to it below (South China Morning Post). I have also put links to a few more articles that I found both useful and interesting when putting this analysis together. Sources: Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com Deutsche Welle: www.dw.com South China Morning Post: www.scmp.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DarrenWells
2
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS. India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014. In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009. Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan. USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment. The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then. The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83. Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374 Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
Abeconomics Continues to Fail – EURJPY ImplicationsThe proof is in the pudding, well it is in the globalized failing of quantitative easing. Abeconomics is no different. Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will continue to feel pressure as his "three arrows" economic policy fails to push consistent economic expansion. Japan's economy shrank 1.6 percent on an annualized basis with falling exports and contracting consumer spending to blame. The calls for additional stimulus can be heard loud and clear, but the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will further risk market fragmentation if additional easing is lumped into the already giant program. According to the continuous contract of Japanese yen futures, Japan's currency has declined over 33 percent since 2011. This has not garnered the growth Wall Street expected it to outside of asset prices. As the BoJ erodes the purchasing power of the yen, import prices are increasing and it is stifling consumer spending. Tax increases are almost a no-go for the same reason. Since Abe was elected in 2012, Japan has only been able to grow by two percent. That's only a few tenths lower that the U.S. during it's quasi-monetary policy, now in its seventh year. Near-term outlook for EURJPY: The EURJPY has been rejected from resistance at 138.79 twice before its current retracement lower. Price action is hinging on support of 137.75, and a close below will signal further downside. Dynamic resistance can be found at 137.55 and 13.30, or the 50 and 72-EMA respectively. Price action support won't be seen until 136.93, which corresponds to the near-term uptrend line. A challenge of 136 is probable. If traders look to take the pair higher, a break of 138.79 could cause a momentum push higher after challenging the descending trend line. This could push the pair up to 139.90. In the longer-term: However, the BoJ could begin to talk the yen lower whether due to poor economic data or the fact that China's decision to devalue the yuan has implications throughout the region. A weaker yuan could force the Japanese central bank to weaken the yen further to try and gain an additional competitive advantage. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) will look to shake the yuan's tether to the U.S. dollar, and future devaluations are in the cards. The BoJ could go tit-for-currency-war-tat. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
2
ARE ASIAN CURRENCY GIANTS TOO FAR APART?China and Japan may be the economic giants of Asia and the world, but the behavior of their currencies would indicate otherwise. Since August 2012, the Chinese yuan strengthened and the Japanese yen weakened considerably. The yuan trades at record highs against the yen. Given the negative impact of a strong currency on exports, China should seek to weaken its yuan against its neighbor’s yen. Since the Chinese yuan was allowed more freedom to move in 2010, it has essentially strengthened against the U.S. dollar. There was pressure from the U.S. to allow the yuan to reflect the economic strength of the Chinese economy. The yuan’s strength, which is shown on the chart as weakness of the U.S. dollar against the yuan, came to an end in January 2013. But the recovery of the dollar/yuan noticeably lagged the rally of dollar/yen. Japan had never been squeamish about loving an export-boosting and deflation-fighting weak yen. So traders didn’t really pay much attention to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s apparent concern about the negative economic impact of the currency’s recent weakness. The yen is now trading at an over six-year low against the dollar. While the two economic giants might have different fundamentals on their agendas, the reality says that weak currencies are needed for exports. The cross between the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen is trading at 17.77. The two components should converge, with the yuan weaker and yen stronger. However, only a convincing close below the 21-week exponential moving average, currently at 16.95, would signal that this FX re-convergence is actually under way.
by charttrader