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China’s Bitcoin Crackdown China’s Supreme Court has issued a ruling that specifies penalties for offenders who use cryptocurrency to raise funds. Penalties range up to 10 years in prison and fines of up to 500,000 yuan ($79,000). China’s years-long crackdown on cryptocurrency has stepped up another level, thanks to a new Supreme Court ruling that paves the way for fines and potentially lengthy jail sentences for citizens found guilty of fundraising via crypto tokens. Released earlier today, the Supreme Court’s decision specifies that “virtual currency” transactions used for raising funds can be prosecuted, with varying penalties available depending on the amount of money raised via the transactions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by rentooipili
Is the Chinese Yuan Readying to Reverse?The Chinese Yuan spent most of 2021 appreciating against the US Dollar despite a broadly upbeat year for the latter. Now, fundamentals may be paving the way for its turnaround amid the risk of slowing demand for Chinese exports - www.dailyfx.com USD/CNH recently turned higher following a more hawkish Federal Reserve, reinforcing the key 6.3526 - 6.3238 support zone. Meanwhile, the PBOC is looking comparatively dovish. Positive RSI divergence shows that downside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn higher. Immediate resistance appears to be the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 6.3833 before the midpoint at 6.4110. Down the road, the pair would have to face falling resistance from March which could reinstate the broader downside focus. On the other hand, taking out the key support zone exposes the 100% extension at 6.2936.
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
USD/CNH Triangle Apex Nears, Will Prices Break Higher or Lower? The Chinese Yuan's volatility versus the US Dollar has eased considerably in recent months compared to price action seen earlier this year. USD/CNH is quickly approaching the apex of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, however. This may see the currency pair make a break higher or lower in the coming weeks. Technically speaking, the triangle doesn't show bias to either side and prices are gyrating around the 100-day SMA. However, fundamentally, the Yuan's position versus the Greenback doesn't offer a strong picture given the prevailing housing market headwinds in China.
by Thomaswestw
Yuan will devalue soon, US dollar $DXY will soar!Republishing this from my USDCNY post. 1. Head and Shoulders pattern 2. MA's + PA show a bottoming pattern 3. China will devalue the Yuan (Remnimbi) 4. Dollar $DXY will go over 106 5. Gold $XAUUSD will go below $1,500 oz. 6. Silvere $XAGUSD will go below $15 oz. Trade idea related to this currency pair that goes through other macro factors twitter.com 10, 20, 30 year yields mirror this PA - and show USD will be going up as yields are starting to. When China devalues the Yuan, the FED will be helpless to push it down unless they go all in on YCC via UBI. Then you'll want to pivot into $XAUUSD or $XAGUSD.
Long
by EmptyEternity
Market Insight: Maintaining a forecast of 6.30 by end 2021 - INGING discussed its expectations for the USDCNY in a recent note to clients. Finally, the PBoC acts to deter yuan appreciation After several rounds of talking down yuan appreciation, China's central bank has now taken some firmer action. The PBoC will raise fx deposit reserves from 5% to 7% effective from 15th June. This comes after the PBoC appreciated the USDCNY fixing this morning to 6.3681 from last Friday's 6.3858. Will this work? We believe that this increase in foreign deposit reserves will help to deter speculators and shield the yuan from further rapid appreciation unless those speculators believe that the yuan wil appreciate by more than 2% points from now even after the PBoC has sent this strong signal. In short, this should be enough to slow the pace of the yuan's appreciation. But it may not stop it. Is this a backward move on exchange rate liberalisation? This sounds a bit like a retrograde step to the PBoC's ambitions on exchange rate liberalisation. But it isn't really. Looking at the fixing, which continued this morning to follow overnight developments of the dollar index, it looks as if the PBoC still wants to stick to the idea of exchange rate liberalisation. But this is difficult to achieve if the PBoC doesn't like speculators occasionally taking charge of the direction and pace of the yuan FX market. A market consists of FX users and investors, including speculators. We interpret the foreign deposit reserves as a tool to deter speculation, not yuan users (such as exporters and importers). And this type of administrative measure will continue to be used repeatedly when yuan moves look to be dominated too much by speculators. We are maintaining our USDCNY forecast at 6.30 for the end of 2021.
by thunderpips
CNY breaking major trendlineCNY has broken a major long term trendline against the US dollar. I believe there is more upside ahead for the Chinese Yuan. The Chinese gov will try to talk down the Yuan to dollar but that will not work without some major government intervention. Just today, they announced a hike in reserve ratio requirements for the first time since May 2007. This move didn't work then and it probably won't work now. It may slow the acceleration though. I would be looking for the Yuan to test its all time high of 16.66 area. Watch out for a throwback to .1558 area first.
Long
by ngordon
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 07.02.2021📌 Clarification of the manoeuvre designed to show the third liberating impulsive leg The following position was reached after Buyer's attack on the log chart created room for a momentum break. I chose the 'log chart' break (which was a game changer in the opening phase) as the one to track so that we could make use of the whitespace above. The way Buyer's play allows them to completely paralyse their opponent in majority . And now, I ask you: Why do Sellers permit the freeing move? Sellers refrain from stepping in. Correctly so, because here would be the typical example of liberation . The linkage was known in the classical school of Elliot , which believed in absolute freeing momentum moves on the log breaks and surprise surprise we got it with our wave 3 impulse. This coming to consciousness via Covid is accelerating the need for cryptographic sound money.. Let me recommend to you my Yearly closing chart: If you know the thoughts on swing chains , it is easy to outguess the concept of our opponent and understand which levels in the ladder they are naturally going to consider defending. In this particular case, we can see $53,400 as the next level to follow for Buyers. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | USDCNH into the elections📍 USDCNH into the elections Oct 2020 Markets are moving quickly. Sellers completed the third wave target at 6.629x as widely expected. The pullback we are tracking in wave 4 is now brilliant proof of a lust to expand even further down. In the 2020 macro chart, we are ahead of schedule and a healthy pullback into the elections, followed by an exchange lower seems like the pragmatic play. Of course if you are short from above you have nothing to do but continue to add on pullbacks, but for those wanting to get closer to the flows, a leg back towards 6.85x seems highly likely. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
FX Update: USD breaks support but do bears want to press...FX Update: USD breaks support but do bears want to press their case pre-election? Summary: The US dollar closed last week below important support levels as investors position for a large US stimulus deal and wax positive on a Biden presidency as odds continue to tilt his way in the latest polls, easing fears of a contested election. Elsewhere, China initiated a move overnight apparently aimed at slowing the pace of yuan appreciation. Trading focus: USD crosses below important support, China applies the brakes to CNY rally The US dollar closed Friday on a weak note, with risk sentiment continuing to improve on the prospects for a stimulus package possibly set to pass before the election on Trump’s latest change of tune in favour of a large package and the market apparently warming to a strong Democratic outcome (which must include taking the Senate to realize any portion of Biden’s campaign platform), choosing to see the glass half full of significant new stimulus under a Biden presidency and ignoring for now the glass-half-empty of the risk of climate regulations and even more importantly, higher taxes on corporations and high incomes and large capital gains. The close above 1.1800 in EURUSD and above 0.7200 in AUDUSD (discussed further below) sets the tone as the week gets underway, and after the strong run higher in risk sentiment, we’ll need to see US politicians deliver on stimulus to keep the US dollar heading weaker still. My chief question is whether USD bears want to press their case in further here with more than residual uncertainty around election outcomes, particularly on whether the Dems can take the Senate. Earnings season is also getting under way this week and will be important for risk sentiment as well. One interesting one to watch for insight on the economy is Wells Fargo, the largest, largely Main-Street focused US bank, set to report earnings on Wednesday. What it is seeing with its enormous client base as the initial US stimulus push has slowed could provide fresh insights on the “K-shaped” narrative of diverging fortunes for winners and losers in the Covid-19 crisis. Moving somewhat at odds with the weaker US dollar, China overnight launched a push apparently aimed at making a statement against the recent pace of yuan declines as it eased rules for financial institutions on speculating against the yuan (dropping the reserve ration to zero from 20%) and set the fix much stronger than expected. This, after the USDCNY rate traded near the lows of early 2019 on Friday. If China makes a more concerted effort to reverse the tide, this could certainly frustrate the pace of USD weakening elsewhere. Chart: AUDUSD It is rather impressive that the Australian dollar managed to close up above the important 0.7200 pivot and maintain that price action today despite China’s moves to at least slow the pace of yuan appreciation. This move above 0.7200 was an important technical trigger for keeping the focus to the upside but needs further support from the reflationary narrative of rising commodity prices and a US stimulus package on its way to keep the USD weaker – otherwise, we risk another false directional move as the market may frustrate any attempt at chunky directional moves until we clear up the US election uncertainties once and for all. Sterling – still no clarity, but market placing its chips on a breakthrough ahead of Thursday. UK Boris Johnson continues to claim that he is ready to walk away from talks with the EU if a deal in principle is not reached by the October 15 (this Thursday) negotiation deadline he set months ago for the terms of the post-Brexit transition period relationship. After weekend talks between Johnson and France’s Macron and Germany’s Merkel, Johnson said that the EU will have to move on its position on fisheries. Top EU negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK’s David Frost are set to resume talks in Brussels today. The market continues to price sterling as if a breakthrough is more likely than not this week, but the situation will almost inevitably produce significant volatility in either direction depending on the outcomes around the Thursday deadline. The 1.3000 level in GBPUSD was crossed more due to USD weakness, while EURGBP has dithered below 0.9100 without approaching the more pivotal 0.9000 area. To get below there, we would likely need an agreement-in-principle headline this week. The G-10 rundown USD – the US dollar is on its back foot but the chief question is perhaps whether the market is really ready to doing anything dramatic on the greenback until we at least get to the other side of the election. EUR – the positive risk sentiment in the US only echoed weakly into Europe and the positioning in US futures market is still extremely heavily long EUR – not the usual starting place for a major advance. JPY – both eyes on US yields this week after the recent spike higher – JPY could stay resilient if this is a false signal and yields head back lower – EURJPY one way to get contrarian on that account. Actua GBP – two-way risks this week as noted above on the UK’s October 15 deadline, though even a breakdown in talks doesn’t necessarily mean that no deal is possible before December 31. CHF – the franc hanging in there below 1.0800 in EURCHF even as the weekly CHF sight deposits actually shrank slightly last week. AUD – as noted above, the local technical key is the 0.7200 level in AUDUSD, while China moving against CNY appreciation could slow the prospects for upside, as could the uncertainty of the US election. CAD – the USDCAD moving in sympathy with USD weakness and has some room left ahead of the giant 1.3000 chart level – have a hard time seeing a major new move ahead of the US election. NZD – the RBNZ dusting off its negative rates talk still has AUDNZD above 1.0800, a pivotal level for differentiation with the relative NZD strength or weakness in the crosses. SEK – the krona enjoying the risk sentiment surge, but is the momentum positive enough here in the EU economy to continue to drive a fall in EURSK all the way to the sub-10.25 lows again – doubtful tactically. NOK – watching the price action in the pivotal 10.75-80 area in EURNOK as a recent oil recovery has helped reverse a good portion of the NOK’s steep decline from September, but we need more from oil and risk sentiment in Europe specifically to mount a challenge toward the 10.40 area cycle lows again. 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by Saxo
1