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Yuan

USDCNH On Key Level! Trading Plan: USDCNH reached key daily structure support. touching the underlined level we see a bullish engulfing candle confirming the significance of this level. on 4H the price is currently forming a right shoulder of inverted head and shoulders pattern formation. 7.09 is its neckline. wait for a 4H bullish breakout of it and then buy on retest or aggressively (4H candle close above). the initial target will be - 7.125 if the market goes lower and closes below head level, setup will be invalid.
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
Chinese Yuan Has Completed The Bullish Setup To Move UpHey friends hope you are well and welcome to the new update from the forex market. The Chinese Yuan has completed the bullish setup and ready to move up against US Dollar. In today's article we will watch the different chart patterns and indicators that are giving signals for the bullish movement of an Chinese Yuan. A big falling wedge: On long term monthly chart the Chinese Yuan is moving in a falling wedg. And this is considered as a bullish reversal pattern among the traders community. As this is the long term monthly chart and signals and patterns are more firmed on long term charts, therefore there are more chances that it will follow the bullish reversal behavior of falling wedge. At this time the price line of Yuan is at the resistance of wedge. But this time it will be difficult for the priceline to drop up to the support of this wedge. Later this article you will see that strong reasons why the Chinese Yuan will not reach at the support. Down channel and synchronized movement with indicators and EMAs: On weekly chart the priceline can be seen moving within a down channel and the movement within this channel is very much synchronized with the stochastic and Momentum indicators. If you take a closer look at the chart then you will notice that whenever the price line reaches and the support and the stochastic gives bull cross and momentum starts turning bullish then price action takes bullish divergence and reaches up to the resistance of the channel. But this time the priceline of Yuan is almost at the center of the channel and Stochastic has entered in over sold zone and has given bull cross. And the momentum indicator is also changed from strong bearish to weak bearish. Therefore there are more chances that the price action will not move more down to reach the support of the channel. And if the Chinese Yuan will be moved up from here then the exponential moving average 10 can also cross up EMA 21 and this bull cross between the two exponential moving averages can lift the price action more up that can lead to the breakout from this channel. A double bottom formation is cancelling the bearish move of Head & Shoulder: On the weekly chart the price action has formed a Head and Shoulder pattern.The formation of this pattern was started from the September 2019. Now the priceline has crossed down the neckline of the shoulder and reached at $0.1395 support. Now the price action is likely to form a double bottom formation that can cancel the bearish rally that was started due to this H & S pattern. A harmonic BAT formation: On the same weekly chart the price action of Chinese Yuan has completed the formation of bullish BAT and entered in the potential reversal zone. Now we have seen that the different indicators on the weekly chart has given bullish signals and after formation of Head and Shoulder the priceline is likely to form a double bottom for bullish reversal and finally the price action has also formed a harmonic BAT pattern. And at this time it is in PRZ level. Therefore All indicators and patterns are giving strong signal that Chinese Yuan has completed the setup for bullish reversal. And it can start the bullish rally at any time. Conclusion: On the long term signals and patterns are in favor of bulls rather in favor of bears, however the stop loss is must. In this trade we can set the maximum extent of the potential reversal zone as our stop loss.
Long
by moon333
1
GBPAUD Long CHINA DEVALUE CORRELATIONA trade I picked up tonight. Fundamental: -AUD to weaken from CNY weakness as they fail to make 880bln in loans -economic performance expected to decline as outlined by Lowe Technicals: -strong rejection off end of daily range -supports built at swing low, first candle (1st arrow) Sentiment: -AUD overextended but GBP also weak -maybe if gold continues down AUD will follow Price action: -buyers from the initial rejection find value in the market and further purchase at support and a liquidity area (2nd arrow)
Long
by madebyforex
Chinese Yuan Is Going To Beat US Dollar Very HardStrong bullish rally and retracement at golden ratio: The Chinese Yuan has been moving up with a strong bullish rally since June 2007 to January 2014 that is almost seven years that the Yuan has been moving up against the US dollars. Then from January 2014 to January 2017 the Chinese Yuan moved down and retraced at 0.618 Fibonacci level that is the golden ratio therefore there were strong chances that it will again move up from this golden ratio and as per expectations the Chinese Yuan moved up again and took another powerful bullish divergence from January 2017 to March 2018 and this move was upto 11.48% for more than a year. Then from March 2018 the Chinese Yuan again started moving down against the US Dollar and at this time it is again at the same golden ratio of 0.618 Fibonacci level . Down channel and volume profile and other indicators: If we switch to the weekly chart then it can be clearly observed that from August 2018 the priceline of Chinese Yuan is now moving in a down channel. After August 2018 the price line has hit at the support of the channel on September 2019. Even though this time after hitting the resistance of the down channel the price action of Yuan is moving down but we can expect that this time the priceline will not reach the support of the channel. If we examine the price action of Yuan then in August 2018 we had the bollinger bands at the support of the channel. And when in Sep 2019 the price action was hitting for the second time on the support the channel at that time the bollinger bands was again at the support of the channel. But this time the Bollinger bands is above the support of this channel and there is a big distance between the support and the lower bands of the bollinger bands. Therefor this time the bollinger bands can play the role of biggest hurdle to stop the price action to move down up to the support of the channel. Here I have also placed the volume profile on the complete price action moving within this channel and after placing the volume profile it can be clearly seen that the trader’s interest is very low below the $0.14. That is almost the same level where we have the lower bands of the Bollinger bands. And the point of control of the volume profile is at $0.1450 that is above the resistance of the channel. Therefore there are strong chances that the price action can move up at anytime at least up to the POC level of the volume profile. Because the point of control of the volume profile always works as a center of gravity for the priceline and whenever the candlesticks move up move down it always pulls back the price action towards itself. And if we see the behavior of the priceline since August 2018 up till now then it can be clearly seen whenever the price action moved up or moved down then it always moves back to the POC level. Here I have also placed the stochastic and momentum indicators. And after placing these indicators we can observe that these both indicators are working in very synchronized manner with Bollinger bands. Whenever the price action hits the Bollinger bands support and stochastic and momentum both give the bull signals together then the priceline moves up to hit the resistance of the channel. Once it was happened on the candlestick of 27th August 2018 and after that the second time it was happened on the candlestick of 9th September 2019. At this time we can see the stochastic is again very close to the oversold zone and momentum is also bearish. Therefore I am again waiting bullish signals from these two indicators for the next bullish rally. Bullish harmonic BAT signal: The strongest bullish signal that I have received is that the price line of Chinese Yuan has completed a bullish BAT harmonic pattern on weekly chart. the formation of this harmonic move was started with the candlestick that was opened and closed on 2nd September 2019. And 1st leg was completed on the candlestick that was opened and closed on 28 January 2020. Then the priceline has been retraced upto 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level this was the first confirmation of the bullish BAT harmonic pattern. After this move we needed the Fibonacci projection between 0.382 to 0.886 Fib projection area of A to B leg and we can see that from 17th September 2020 to 9th March 2020 Chinese Yuan projected between this projection level that was the second confirmation for the bullish harmonic BAT pattern. And finally the priceline is again dropped down and retraced upto 0.786 to 0.886 Fibonacci level and this is a final confirmation of completion of bullish BAT pattern. Now at this time the price action is moving in the potential reversal zone of this bullish BAT and at anytime the price action of Chinese Yuan can move up with a powerful bullish divergence. And as per Fibonacci sequence of sequence if BAT pattern it can be project between 0.382 to 0.786 Fib projection level of A to D leg. Conclusion: We can expect buying zone from $ 0.1407 to $ 0.14 because at $0.14 we have strong supports. And realistically sell target can be from $ 0.1423 to $ 0.1448. If the Chinese Yuan will breakout the channel then we can even expect more powerful bullish rally against US Dollar for years.
Long
by moon333
3
ridethepig | NZDCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01NZD is moving as collateral with AUD, those following the previous AUDCNH idea will know this is no less imaginative. New Zealand is exposed to a short-circuit in Chinese supply chains leaving it vulnerable to a slowdown in China via coronavirus. On the monetary side, RBNZ has been notably quiet around the impact from the virus. The CB will not be able to hide from the slowdown for too long, exports are already being hit, tourism, commodities and consumer confidence! As is the case with AUDCNH: The range we are trading in NZDCNH is clearly defined; 4.7 - 4.05 and this trend has held since 2015. The flip is being broken and a breakdown looks imminent. Given the risk environment, I recommend trading towards support at the 4.05 lows and selling rallies going forward. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes coming on the CNH crosses ... an entire dissection of CNH and the impact from PBOC intervention. Jump into the comments with your charts and views!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Flash Crash In Play For AUDCNH !!A major breakdown ahead of the open as markets catch up to the virus disruptions. AUD and global trade are set to suffer for sometime, it will take a brave man to step against this flow. On the monetary side, RBA tee'd up a rate cut in April with another in Q3 on the cards. Housing has already done the heavy lifting, will need A LOT more help from elsewhere to create a positive outlook in the near-term for AUD. PBOC in a 'whatever it takes' moment with the printer starting to overheat. On the technicals, the doldrum 4.7-4.9 range remained intact throughout 2019. Since the new decade we have broken the lower end in the range via coronavirus trigger, a screaming warning for what is cooking globally. We are sitting at key support 4.5 which needs to hold otherwise we have a flash crash in play towards 4.3 - 4.25. Unless buyers step in quickly we are set to lose support on panic. Continue to sell weakness if we lose support. For those tracking USDCNH : For those tracking EURCNH : Lastly, for those tracking Chinese Equities : Best of luck all those in CNH, risks come from further PBOC intervention although looks like they ran out of time! Thanks all for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EURCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01Here we go for a round of important chart update on the FX, Commodity and Equity board... I do not subscribe to the idea of this being the start of the euro reserve currency rally which we were tracking earlier in the year that failed from the Coronavirus short-circuit, although it is certainly moving with speed. Remember we have month end flows in play now too and to put the 🍒 on top the virus still not under control. I am expecting further downside in euro as the outbreak continues to delay the recovery in trade for Europe, now it is crystal clear if it wasn't already that the EUR really holds the key to pandora's box for those wanting to play the reflationary trade. This has been delayed till later in 2020 via the deflationary shock from COVID-19. Tracking 1.05xx-1.04xx in EURUSD. On the CNH side, the PBOC intervention is notable: Advise selling rallies in Chinese Equities for now, the demand for currency will increase as long as the virus shows no signs of abating. I expect this cross to grind towards the 7.40 levels where it would be very attractive for those mid and long-term macro players to buy the dip into 2021. On the technical side, Strong resistance is found at 7.73 / 7.75, use this to sell into and target the support at 7.40 / 7.38. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CNY Market Commentary 2020.02.16On the technicals there is little to update while the resistance holds, despite the bounce via PBOC intervention on coronavirus risk flows. The only level in play to the topside is 7.0248 as it caps the highs in the current wave. Anything above will unlock a leg towards the next barrier at 7.0733. The coronavirus short-circuit sadly temporarily disrupted the USD devaluation / reflationary growth theme. I am still holding shorts and active looking for a test of the 6.825x. Anything below that will open the floodgates for the major break: As usual thanks for keeping support coming with the likes and comments, we'll open up the short-term flow after the Tokyo open in the comments below for those trading live!
Short
by ridethepig
USDCNH Reversal Pattern? Coronavirus Good News Upcoming?USDCNH has been in an uptrend with multiple higher lows, however, recently this began to exhaust as new higher lows (confirmed by higher highs) failed to materialize. We also had a big resistance/flip zone hit at 7.00 The swing at 6.9785 was an early entry signal, and also because it broke a smaller flip/support level above. Looking for a possible head and shoulder pattern here which would show us a transition for an uptrend to a downtrend with a lower high (lower low needed). We will await the break and close. Of course, just yesterday China said they would halve tariffs on US goods. This is being seen as progress to a phase 2 deal. Also, you must also entertain the idea that Coronavirus contained and progress headlines may be coming soon. Perhaps some successful vaccine or whatever. Though I would not trust the Chinese data on this.
Short
by Uncharted-FX
BUY IDEA: AUDJPY UPRISINGThe Australian Dollar is in route to challenge a breakout from its long standing downward momentum. Currently riding on an up-channel, the current price point sits at the bottom of the trend line + both 50 & 200 EMAs are immediately below; indicating additional support. As observed on the 15M chart, after touching the bottom of the trend line, the price point reverted upwards and is currently awaiting the accumulation process to finalize. Seen fighting to get above the 50 EMA on the 12H chart: I'm looking for price to reach 77.000 before retracing. This could turn out to be a long move.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn5320750
GBPJPY: #POUNDITSince mid-October the GBPound has been gaining momentum against the JapenseYuan. Reaching a recent high of 147.900, the price point immediately reverted to retest the previous channel's top trend line near 141.500 (shown in orange). After a showing of strong support, the price point returned to its longstanding uptrend which started August 11th 2019 (shown in green). Currently sitting on the 50EMA (25 day average) and the bottom of the longstanding trend line, I expect this price point to continue rising and eventually retest the 147.900 mark. Trend direction's obviously changing because we're sitting above the 200EMA now. I wonder if its finally headed back toward the highs of August 2015 (194.510).
Long
by UnknownUnicorn5320750
4
Major Reversal In Play For CNY - A Must Track!!A good time to update the CNY chart with US away from their desks for thanksgiving. Both sides rolling back tariffs means that CNY has unlocked the gates for a retrace towards the key 76.4%. On the monetary side, updates from PBOC who continue sitting on the bid and are unlikely to change stance and keep CNY strong against the crosses, and as long as this remains the case the highs will be capped. Risks to my thesis come from another escalation in protectionism. For Chinese Equities the important and key 2793 is back in play again: Those following previously will remember trading the breakout to the topside, which is now clear was the final exhaustion leg. A textbook one to track for those wanting to dig deeper: For the technicals we are tracking a similar leg in nature to the sell-off in 2017, initial looking to target 6.9xx with extensions as low as 6.6xx and 6.4xx. While to the topside invalidation will come via a break of the highs. Best of luck all those on the CNY bid, jump into the comments with any questions and your views on CNY!
Short
by ridethepig