the parallel between YUAN and BTCif our guesses are correct, then closer to December we will see the growth of bitcoin in parallel with the yuan.
Yuan
BTC | RMB StoryAs we all fret on the verge of what's going to happen next with BTC, the Fed, the SEC's decision on Bitwise's ETF, the US-China trade war, etc... It's good to also not forget how influential China has been in the news the past year. And not to mention, how influential China has been to BTC the past decade.
If we look at the charts of both BTC and the RMB, there is a peculiar inverse relationship between the two. Are we poised for the next divergence as we can see on the top right?
The BTC 21 D SMA just touched the 200 D SMA indicating strength for the bears...
And as we all know the macro environment isn't looking too pretty either...
LONG TERM SPECULATION | LONG IS SUSPECTED!See chart for illustration
Lower time frame will be published soon as price action is been monitored
USD/CNY - Even a hare will bite when it is cornered.
Hi, today we are going to talk about Yuan Renminbi and its current landscape.
We have a Double Top Breakout on USD/CNY with Volume and could bring the Yuan Renminbi to a dramatic devaluation against the US Dollar. Trough this daily chart, we can observe that China's central bank - (PBOC) had to remove or loosen the grip on it, allowing the currency fluctuation and their free precification by the market, without strong barriers programed by the PBOC.
Thank you for reading and leave your comments if you like.
Kweichow Moutai (600519) SSE short.All description on the chart.
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Thank you.
Currency manipulator & Goldman Sachs forecastsAfter China devalued the Yuan on Monday, markets were awaiting a US response. It appeared quickly enough: The U.S. Treasury Department announced late on Monday that it had determined for the first time since 1994 that China was manipulating its currency, knocking the U.S. dollar. Maybe in response to this, or maybe just to show that the fall of the renminbi on Monday is just a power struggle, the People’s Bank of China took steps to stabilize weakness in the yuan. As a result, its fall has stopped and even strengthened somewhat. Although the Yuan against the dollar remained above 7.
Investors yesterday were able to take a breath. Haven assets after strong growth on Monday, adjusted on Tuesday. Given that the situation remains tense and uncertain, we continue to recommend the Japanese yen and gold purchases.
We also continue to recommend selling the dollar. Against the background of such a development of events, it is more than logical and to expect a further rate cut. Currently, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, 100% of traders expect the Fed rate cut in September. But there is another interesting point. If last week only 1.5% of traders expected a 0.5% decrease, then this week the percentage was already 21.5%, that is, the probability increased sharply - almost 15 times up(!).
Thus, we are talking about the reduction of the rates two times in a row. And the dollar is still extremely expensive. So the opportunity for its sales is unique. It’s even strange why the markets cling to their purchases.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recently published their vision of the current situation in the world. Their forecasts are: the Fed will lower the rate in 2019 at least 3 times, a trade war will continue until 2020, and still Trump is the President we should not count on its end.
In general, the vector of development of events has not yet changed. Therefore, our basic trading recommendations are also unchanged.
In addition to selling the dollar and buying safe-haven assets, we continue to sell oil and the Russian ruble. We also hold long positions on the pound and those who do not have them have the opportunity to buy at very attractive prices.
Chinese Media Downplays Yuan’s Drop Due to Manipulator LabelChinese state media supported the government’s move on yuan’s weakening, saying it was normal. The press stressed on economic benefits that come with a flexible currency.
According to Xinhua News Agency’s Monday report, the yuan falling beyond 7 a dollar is a result of a market drive. The move shows the exchange rate is now more flexible. The report also said it’s normal to have market sentiments fluctuate amid rising external risks.
People’s Daily said the yuan’s future is unpredictable. It said the central bank is now more tolerant of fluctuations compared to during the 2016 depression cycle. The newspaper also published an article on one of its WeChat accounts. It said that markets play a more significant role in the yuan’s exchange rate.
On Monday, yuan’s weakening to its lowest level in more than ten years. It caused Trump administration to label China – a currency manipulator worsening the U.S-China trade war. The move is symbolic but highlights the deteriorating trade relationship between the two giant economies.
On Tuesday, the yuan pared losses in Hong Kong after China’s central bank fixed daily rate stronger than 7 per dollar. On Monday, Yi Gang the People’s Bank of China governor said China wouldn’t use yuan as a tool to deal in trade disputes.
According to a Chinese Security journal’s commentary, the domestic financial media also eased investor’s nerves to say PBOC was still keen on it bottom-line-mindset. Policymakers were considering a range of risks in managing exchange rates.
The journal also emphasized that there was no need to worry about yuan steep depreciation or shocks to asset prices amid capital outflow. It said that there was no basis for the yuan to weaken significantly.
China’s yuan stabilizes, investor sentiment remains delicate
Is fear in Yuan driving Bitcoin Bull runs??As a result of the trade war and trumps latest tweet China is currently devaluing the yuan. It's now above 7yuan/usd.
I imagine this might promt some chinese millionaires to want to buy BTC due to fear. I'm seeing some correlation in when there is fear in the Chinese Yuan through devaluation.
Is this causing a Bitcoin bullrun?
The circled section conflicts with this however some periods show strong correlation.
The hypothesis is that wealthy Chinese nationals are seeing the devaluation of there currency and buying up large amounts of Gold and Bitcoin.
This might be obvious to some people but I thought I'd share a chart
XAUCNY - Gold, CNY Hegded - is in troubleGold, denominated in Chinese yuan (CNY) has really made the grade.
10,000 yuan per ounce looks like firm resistance; so suggestion is the price has to be juiced into some lower floors.
CNY-denominated gold will hit a new high in the future.
Only valid for Chinese people. If you want to keep your wealth. You need physical gold. I don't understand the macro economy. I think the trade war is long-term and he will exacerbate the devaluation of the renminbi. If you are a Chinese compatriot. I hope you are lucky.
Can you afford to ignore the Renminbi rally? NO!What happened last time...:
Clearly, we hit a very strong support...
What's this? It's a Bird...It's a Plane... NO! It's the Chinese Renminbi making a double bottom on the monthly chart! And a higher LOW! WOW!
The US are turning socialist and the FED have DESTROYED the us dollar. It is getting abandonned.
China is becoming a TITAN and the Yuan is a new PARADIGM! The new worldwide monetary system.
Those that do not buy a whole lot of little yuans now or soon will regret it for the rest of their lives.
USDCNH to retest 6.8Not supposed to raly like this. USD not that strong. On this chart it is at a premium compared to normal.
Also, USDCNH has been following USDTRY with a delay:
USDSEK went down too even. Time for USDCNH.
I have Ucad mapped out for the WEEK, here take a look!After careful review of the USDCAD currency pair, I have been fortunate enough to create a perspective for the entire week ahead. I see the USD first recovering against the Canadian dollar with the oil p [rice playing a major role in this move, followed by a midweek reversal which is likely to come in play on Wednesday or Thursday, with the release of key economic data. The Us president is currently in Japan making negotiations and china is looking to de-evaluate the YUAN. So this week should be very interesting.
Happy Trading and Manage your Risk!
The Urban Genius
China on the move, strikes a blowLooks like China's on the move by devaluing their currency against the dollar.
This looks to me to be further escalation.
Bloody Friday in US equity markets tomorrow?
Trade deadlock, Saudi tanker attacked, expert opinionsThe trade negotiations between the US and China are still at an impasse. The reason is - the Trump’s position, who accused China of violating the agreements. China, in turn, accused the United States of having provoked a negotiation crisis. Well, sum up there is a complete halt in the negotiation process, the expected counter-actions on the part of China and rather gloomy prospects for the world economy ahead.
As for counter-action. China announced that it will increase duties on US goods in the amount of $ 60 billion. The Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China issued a statement announcing that from June 1, 2019 duties on a number of American goods will be increased from 5% to 25 %
Yuan naturally has dropped, reaching the lowest values against the dollar since December 27. According to analysts, this decline will not be limited and it is worth preparing for the assault on the mark of 7 yuan per dollar (the minimum value of the yuan since the global financial crisis). Yuan was not the only victim - stock indices declined steadily.
In general, the conditions for Japanese yen and gold growth are more than favorable. So, we continue to recommend its buying.
As for the US dollar, recently, any uncertainty of investors leads to its growth: the markets perceive the dollar as another variation of safe-haven assets. That is why a lot of managers of famous funds unanimously declare that the dollar is still the king in the foreign exchange market and its buying should be preferred. Moreover, the advice is buying it against the currencies of developing countries, for example, the Turkish lira, the Argentine peso, and the same Chinese yuan. It is simply to understand what is happening currently, the escalation of trade wars causes damage primarily to the economy of developing countries, therefore its currencies will be the first to take the brunt.
Saudi tankers among 'sabotaged' ships off the UAE coast. Taking into account the already tense situation in the Middle East, the oil market reacted to this force majeure as a completely natural reaction in the form of price increases and oil. But the growth did not last long and the day closed with a “black candle”. We will keep up to date and continue to look for points for oil sales.
By the end of Monday, our trading preferences have changed: we will look for points for buying the euro against the dollar, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold and the Japanese yen, but we will wait a little with Australian and Canadian dollars buying so far.
Making money, another quiet weekAnother quiet week in the foreign exchange market is over. Traders and investors are getting used to calmness. Although each in such conditions behaves differently. Some optimize trading strategies for existing conditions. Others go to emerging markets where volatility is high. Accordingly, the carry trade is back in fashion.
You can use temporary imbalances in capital flows for the purpose of speculative earnings. The most obvious trading strategy is buying of developing countries’ currencies with a high-interest rate of the Central Bank in exchange for the currencies of developed countries with a zero or even negative rate so earn on the interest rate differential. Indian rupee and Chinese yuan can be mentioned as the most obvious buying candidates. And you can sell the Japanese yen and the euro.
For those who decided to continue to trade the "majors" in the foreign exchange market, we would recommend dramatically increasing the aggressiveness of trading. In the absence of directed movements, even oscillator works as extremely efficient.
Another option is to earn money with options. Obviously, the period of ultra-low volatility cannot last forever and sooner or later the markets will “shoot”. In order to make money on it, you can use basic option strategies, for example, buying both put and call options in the hope of a strong move no matter where (options strategy is straddle). Considering the extent to which option premiums have fallen in price, this strategy may well lead to super-profits.
Returning to the news background, we note that this week will be pretty calm. Bursts of volatility are possible in yen pairs. The fact is that on Thursday the Bank of Japan will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy, and on Friday a whole block of important statistical data from Japan will be published (data on the labor market, inflation, industrial production, and retail sales).
As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for selling dollar in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying), buying of gold and oil in the commodity markets, in addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble.
Tides May Turn for USDCNHJust minutes ago, Reuters reported that Lightheizer and Mnuchin are going to Bejing for talks. However, trade war detente is now not on the table until June. Trump threatens to keep tariffs on if China won't hold up their end of the deal on intellectual property. Honestly its not looking good. It is difficult to tell if this trend will continue to go negative and if Trump holds an all out assault in the trade war against everyone and anyone he can get his hands on. This may be the world we live in by the end of 2019. Who knows. But clearly, the talks are no longer going as well as we once thought and also let's keep in mind how Trump walked away from Kim Jong Un in Hanoi. This is what we are trending towards now which would be quite detrimental to markets in spite of Trump's desire for a deal which is quite strong and in spite of his sensitivity towards the stock markets which we also know he is quite sensitive to as well. However in the end, in order for these negotiations to go well Trump needs at least the idea that he can create a positive message at the end.
That's the fundie picture. I'll much more briefly talk technicals. Overall, we are trending towards oversold with the USD even though the momentum is still trending in that direction. If you like my analysis, read some more words and check out some more charts here: www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
