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Yuan

USDollar Set to Break Out Higher DXYThe US Dollar Index has been stuck in a rut. Since mid-May it has moved mainly sideways. Bouncing back and forth in consolidation, like it is bouncing off of the walls of a jail cell. The top of the consolidation is at the November high, a spot it just can’t seem to get over. But the chart below suggests there may be a jailbreak soon. There are several thing to watch. First that consolidation has been tightening. Each low has been a little bit higher than the last one. This is a sign of buyers overwhelming sellers. It also creates an ascending triangle. A break to the upside carries a target to 102. Momentum has held bullish, but reset off of the extreme levels of May. The RSI held at the mid line on the pullback and is now curling up. The MACD has also reset lower, nearly to zero, but remains positive. Finally the Bollinger Bands were pushed open Friday as the price drove up to resistance.
TVC:DXYLong
by rocktradr
What to look for next week? Gold, Euro, Bitcoin that's what.This is what I will be keeping my eye on next week: FX:EURUSD,FX:GBPUSD,FX:USDCNH,FX:USDMXN,FX:USDTRY,FX:EURJPY,FX:EURCHF,FX:EURCAD,FX:GBPJPY,FX:GBPCAD,TVC:GOLD,TVC:SILVER,COMEX:HG1!,BITFINEX:BTCUSD There might be some opportunities, and I want to perfect my trading in FX, so I will ignore stocks unless I have time, my priority is really making my FX trading perfect the rest is secondary. No rush to make profit, I just want to perfect my system at the moment. EURUSD It started going down with force, but I think I see divergence, and support is not that far, what is going to happen? I will keep an eye on it, maybe open a small trade. GBPUSD All this RSI divergence... Yeah it is still pointing down, but the donwtrend slowed down big time , could get a reversal. I probably go long based on several factors. We will see when we get there. Depends on idk news several indicators fibo etc. USDCNH Keeps getting divergence on the daily, what is it with all these divergences? Moves are weaker because big players are on vacation so there is divergence everywhere? Well anyway, it is aiming for ath overbought on the weekly, if it keeps going up with more and more divergence I will bet on the Yuan, pretty good odds I believe. My main favorite strategy is going with trends, really, but here we keep seing this stuff so I just have to go for the counter trend trades... USDMXN Just join the downtrend if possible. I have not seen a trend to join in such a long time, I do not even know how they look like, can't tell for sure if that one is good :o Seriously. USDTRY Well there is hope for the Lira bagholders. They were featured on bagholderquotes (twitter) a while ago, there are quite a few Lira bagholders :) If pepperstone would just verify me after 2 weeks, I could trade it, otherwise spread is too high. Reversal candle on the daily at the top. I could be wrong, but I have a gut feeling this could go very wrong either way... EURJPY Euro getting weaker as we saw at the start of this idea. Against the Yen it is even worse apparently. Going to look to short it on a retrace, either a weak retrace if all my conditions are met, or can be a strong retrace (got to watch usdjpy too...) EURCHF Looks like it is going to bounce. 1.154 has to be a good place to short it I reckon. EURCAD Took a loss by shorting this one too soon last week. Now I see %B divergence on the daily, I am better staying away from this one. GBPJPY Like GBPUSD but magnified. GBPCAD Is %B divergence and an RSI so low enough reasons to go long here? I seriously do not know. Must rememebr to keep an eye on this. GOLD Gold is SOOOO primed for reversal. I want to go long when it drops, but I don't even know if I get that opportunity. Silver I do not know. Waiting on the sidelines. Copper That bottoming thing I posted about 2 weeks ago, it might be over, and the downtrend could continue, but nothing is certain at the moment. Bitcoin Last but not least. I posted about this in my last BTC ideas. It's just the same stuff that repeats itself every 2 weeks. A drop with divergence (long or short it is the same just look at the chart upside down), followed by a second drop, the goes up. Supports / resistances always hold. Rince and repeat. I would call going long here very high probability. Since you know, it just keeps doing the same stuff and this worked the last idk maybe 50 times? In a row.
by MrRenev
USDCNH to drop soon?this short seems like a very obvious play given the bearish divergence on momentum indicators and a strong bearish shooting star which is a classic reversal pattern, but I feel like theres a catch somewhere here: Either we will see a large consolidation that many will see as a bull flag and long just to get stopped out, or we will have another weak rally with obvious signs of divergence before we fall. Either way I feel that the end is near for this rally, but this is a trade that will require patience to play out. Why? because the technicals for the dollar look strong and this push up has almost no slope change causing me to believe that there may be a little bit more to rally, or we may consolidate to even out the slope because it's less likely to see such a rally followed immediately by a steep drop, usually takes a consolidation and signs of weakness (momentum loss, lower high, dollar drop etc..) causing a slope change and then a drop. A lower high would cause a more drastic drop, I believe, but if we break the previous high I would look for a correction target around the .386 and , .5 from the top. I would start accumulating pieces to a short position slowly and watch the dollar closely but this should be a nice short play in the near future. May be early but I doubt it. Reversal plays are the riskiest so play this smart and good luck.
Short
by jefskers
2
Macro Dashboard 8 Of The Most Interesting Markets My outlook for what's happening right now and where things will likely turn or move to. BTCUSD WTI 30 Yr Bonds USDCNH Gold DXY EEM Bloomberg Commodities Index Seasonally August and September SPX underperforms while global markets outperform, this could be a good counter trend move into September lows as the US positions itself to vacuum up as much global assets as possible. Consider this scenario... Strong Dollar Strong Bond Strong Equities Strong Real Estate Strong Oil(?) Weak Gold, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Commodities, Global Real Estate, EEM, ME-Euro Equities, Asian Equities, Global Bonds, Brexit, Italexit, Spain-Exit, devaluation of Lira.... Where does money go in this scenario, that actually looks like it might take place? US Assets
by ChrisD_Macro
Gold 618 1210Even with the strength of the US Dollar , Gold is attempting to hold above 1210 which coincides with a key Fibonacci level on the chart. I know my charts seem cluttered, but this is a lot of Fibonacci, Time/price cycles, Tesla Vibrational theory and other analysis tools on one chart. Pay attention to the 1210 level right now because I believe this will play out to be a very key level in the immediate future. If Gold is able to hold above this level for the next few days/weeks, then we could see the US Dollar stall a bit and retrace while Gold and Silver may begin a renewed upside move. The global markets and the strength of the US Dollar are driving all of this rotation right now. In my opinion, it is a good move for the Metals to retrace to near these levels before the crap hits the fan. The only thing people need to consider is the value ratio of Gold to the Stock market. Right now, Gold and Silver are relatively cheap compared to historical levels. Pay attention because this 1210 level will likely not last long.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by rocktradr
USDCNH - OVERDONE PARABOLIC This is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD 0.01% peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold 0.77% , copper -2.43% , and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016. Comment: For a full understanding of things - read the article below. www.alhambrapartners.com
Short
by harmonay
1
GOLD Bullish DiverganceGold price reached a possible reversal zone at the uptrend line on the weekly time frame. You can read this post for more details, just click on the link in the related ideas below this post. If we look at the daily chart , we can see a buy signal based on a bullish divergence . The price bounces from 1220.00 level and RSI confirms the price reversal in the oversold zone. MACD histogram supports the possible upward movement. DMI is still bearish and confirms the strength of sellers and that's why we should use pending orders and a breakout signal for buying. If price moves above the resistance zone formed by the weekly uptrend line, SMA20 and 1240.00 resistance level , we'll get additional signal confirming the upward movement. Entry level should be above 1245.00 with stop orders below the local swing low at 1210.00 level. The main profit target should be at 1300.00 level. If the price breaks this resistance, the next target will be 1350.00 level.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by harmonay
China's dollar funding problem & why their currency is devaluingThis is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold, copper, and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016.
by GTStockmaster
Dollar Index Exhibiting Strong Bullish SignalsThis may be my second or third time analyzing the dollar index, so bear with me on this latest go. Looking at the weekly chart, especially in the last year or so, we see there is strong evidence of a reverse head and shoulders, only that the left shoulder is still to be formed. But, the reverse left shoulder aside we still have another strong bullish indicator, the cup and handle forming. Which ever way you look at it there's a tone of technical evidence that the dollar index is fixing to weaken relative to the currencies that comprise it. This doesn't bode well for the proponents of the most recent "trade war" between the U.S., China, and Europe. With U.S. goods becoming more expensive relative to the rest of the world and the anticipation of higher prices from the tariffs imposed from those aforementioned countries; demand will lessen for U.S. goods both internationally and domestically and this has the makings of a inflationary slow-down in the economy, which is the worst type of recession.
TVC:DXY
by ReadySetBudget
USD/CNY Analysis: Mid-TermTechnical Analysis i) Looks like a Cup and Handle formation for USD/CNY on the weekly chart. Looking to short play the Handle, looking for entries between 6.62 - 6.64 down to 6.48 level. ii) Our most likely scenario (1), will have a pullback from the Handle down to the 6.48 level from their should look for some long positions up to 6.8 level. *ii) However, as any good trader should know is that you shouldn't get married to a position or scenario. Therefore, for this scenario (2) at the 6.48 level instead of immedietaly closing position I advice that we re-assess the markets at that moment in time and see whether we should continue shorting down to 6.3 further easing into shorts on the ride down. **A1 is a copy/shadow of the Bars Pattern taken from A. Fundamental Analysis The strength of the US economy which led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year in conjunction with Trump's Tariffs has led the Chinese Yuan to fall more than 3% again the dollar in the past two weeks as tensions between the two largest economies has escalated. Chinese companies have amassed huge leveles of US dollar debts in recent years through bond sales in Hong Kong, according to financial data provider Dealoagic. However, it seems that China has been preparing for the upcoming Trade War as Moody's Investors Service stated that 'll but five of the 49 rated South and Southeast Asian high-yield non-financial companies have protection in place against a significant rise in debt levels or borrowing costs, if their local currencies were to depreciate up to 15% against the US dollar. The 49 companies reported a combined US dollar debt total of $45.5 billion as of year-end 2017, or about 55% of their total outstanding debt'. We can expect a further depeciation in the Yuan which shouldn't be to alarming for investors as it could make China's huge export industry more competitive globally as it makes Chinese products cheaper for buyers who pay in dollars. For which Trump has in the past repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency's value in order to acheive this.
Long
by MoneyBodySoul
USD/CNH All signals point downwardsThe US Dollar’s movements against the Chinese one currency have not been mapped for some time, because some consider them rather boring. The bottom line about the pair is that the US Dollar is losing value against the Yuan. However, the movements of various timeframes can be mapped in various scale patterns. Moreover, it can be observed that the currency exchange rate has a rather notable tendency to respect Fibonacci retracement lines. In regards to the near term future, the pair is either set to trade sideways or decline. The reason for such assumption is the fact that the pair has fallen below a very strong resistance cluster, which is located from 6.28 to 6.29 levels.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/JPY One of our favorite pairs. This Pair spits out pips at a rapid pace. The trick to this pair is patience. This pair rewards the patient. So what do we have this week? Outlook: -Price @ 150 has been tested multiple times. -Possible Right shoulder formation. -Then look to short at the peak. 147.50 is target 145.00 Psychological Fundamental: -We have Manufacturing PMI, we are forecasted to be a little under than last release. We are expected to be under 55.3 and clock in under 55.1. If this happens then this will make an extra push south. On the other hand, If we clock in over 55.3 then the pound will continue to rise and retest 151.00. - Lets continue to do our research to capitalize either way, be safe, have a nice comfortable risk/reward and hold your trade! follow @WallstreetJon
Short
by BlueNoteFx
1
USD/CNH Long term The US Dollar has continued to lose ground against the rest of the currencies. The USD/CNH pair is no exception to this event. However, there is one interesting aspect to the decline of the Buck against the Chinese Yuan. The currency pair recently stopped its decline and began to trade sideways. The move was initiated by a combined support of the lower trend line of junior channel down pattern, weekly S1 and monthly S2. All of these support levels are located in a range from 6.4200 to 6.4290. Meanwhile, resistance is provided by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 6.4480 mark. The pair is likely to trade sideways until it reaches the resistance of the channel. Afterwards, the decline should resume.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH meets long term supportThe US Dollar has been plummeting against the Chinese Yuan during the second half of August. However, it seems that the decline of the Buck against the Yuan has ended. The currency exchange rate has met the support of a rather week long term descending channel pattern near the 6.5240 mark. It is possible that the trend line managed to hold its ground because of the weekly S1, which is located at that level. Since then the pair has managed to score gains and reach the 6.56 mark, and it is expected to continue the surge. However, politics are more likely to set the exchange rate.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USDCNY. Filling the Mega Gap. Wave 5One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart. Frankly speaking I thought USDCNY is in a correction before I squeezed the chart, the Monthly chart. The pair had a Mega GAP in 1994. It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap. We could be in the last large wave down to hit the 5.8145 mark. This idea is opposite to the primary market opinion of imminent devaluation of yuan.
Short
by aibek
5