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CYBIN Cybin is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company on a mission to create safe and effective psychedelic-based therapeutics to address the large unmet need for new and innovative treatment options for people who suffer from mental health conditions. Cybin’s goal of revolutionizing mental healthcare is supported by a network of world-class partners and internationally recognized scientists aimed at progressing proprietary drug discovery platforms, innovative drug delivery systems, and novel formulation approaches and treatment regimens. Billionaire Steve Cohen Buys 19M Shares Of Cybin Stock For Psychedelics R&D, Blake Mycoskie $100M Pledge. The considerably large acquisition puts Cybin in the limelight with credibility status in ongoing and future work - see Cybin’s recent acquisition announcement of DMT therapeutics developer Small Pharma DMTTF. Blake Mycoskie On His $100M Pledge To Psychedelics Research Following a sound pledge of $100 million for psychedelics research, billionaire Blake Mycoskie has updated on how his funding agenda -representing around 25% of his wealth- will unfold. Mycoskie says he is planning to “give $5 million a year for the rest of the time, until the $100 million runs out,” a yearly sum that “feels right, because the industry still feels nascent.” That could change in the presence of “a huge opportunity” or in the need of “a huge campaign push.” Although he understands other donors are waiting for further regulatory and scientific success, his personal standpoint is that those aren’t needed in view of solid works authored by Johns Hopkins and New York University, among others.
AMEX:CYBNLong
by CBKWahoo
USDJPY UP INTO THE CLOUDSTOP DOWN ANALYSIS ON USDJPY: USD/JPY is approaching the psychological barrier at 150, not too far from the 2022 high of 152.00. There is no sign of reversal of the uptrend, while momentum on the weekly charts isn’t showing any signs of fatigue. This suggests the pair could give a shot at 152.00. For the immediate upward pressure to begin easing, USD/JPY would need to fall below the early-September high of 147.75. Above 152.00, the next level to watch would be the 1990 high of 160.35. "Luke 18:31" My entry on the bounce from 15M trendline up intp the 150 clouds
Long
by Zealonit
Warren Buffett's Margin of SafetyIn the world of investing, few names carry as much weight as Warren Buffett. Often hailed as the Oracle of Omaha, Buffett's wisdom has guided countless investors to financial success. At the core of his investment philosophy lies a concept he considers paramount: the Margin of Safety. Buffett once famously said that the three most important words in investing are "Margin of Safety." To delve deeper into this principle, he pointed to Chapter 20 of "The Intelligent Investor," a seminal work by Benjamin Graham, which he deemed the best chapter ever written on the subject. Chapter 20: The Concept of a Margin of Safety At its essence, the Margin of Safety revolves around the idea that every stock has a fair (intrinsic) value based on the underlying company. However, this fair value often deviates significantly from the stock's current market price. No Margin of Safety: When the stock price exceeds its fair value, there is no margin of safety. Margin of Safety: When the stock price falls below its fair value, a margin of safety exists. Benefits of the Margin of Safety Investing in any asset for less than its intrinsic value is a sound financial decision. However, in the world of investing, where determining precise fair values can be elusive, this principle holds even greater significance. One can never pinpoint an exact fair value; they can only estimate a range. The Margin of Safety serves as a shield against potential errors in estimating fair value. The Mathematical Advantage A Margin of Safety provides two critical mathematical advantages: Downside Protection: Avoiding losses is paramount in investing. It takes a 100% gain to recover from a 50% loss. Therefore, preventing losses should be a top priority. Exponential Returns: Imagine a stock with a fair value of $10 but currently trading at $8, offering a 25% upside. Now, if that same stock were available for $5, the upside potential would skyrocket to 100%. A Margin of Safety can turn a good investment into an exceptional one. Why Do Margins of Safety Exist? The concept of Mr. Market, introduced by Benjamin Graham, plays a pivotal role in understanding the existence of Margins of Safety. Mr. Market is depicted as an impulsive individual, prone to bouts of depression (selling stocks at a discount) and exuberance (selling at a premium). Stock markets exhibit such fluctuations due to the psychological biases and errors of market participants. Understanding this human element is crucial in grasping the significance of Margins of Safety. In the words of Warren Buffett himself, "If you understand chapters 8 and 20 of 'The Intelligent Investor' and chapter 12 of 'The General Theory,' you don't need to read anything else." These chapters provide a foundation for investors to navigate the complexities of the market with the wisdom of a Margin of Safety. In conclusion, the Margin of Safety isn't just a concept; it's a guiding principle that can safeguard your investments and unlock their full potential. Buffett's reverence for this idea underscores its importance in achieving success in the world of finance.
Education
by Vestinda
Kelly Criterion and other common position-sizing methodsWhat is position sizing & why is it important? Position size refers to the amount of risk - money, contracts, equity, etc. - that a trader uses when entering a position on the financial market. We assume, for ease, that traders expect a 100% profit or loss as a result of the profit lost. Common ways to size positions are: Using a set amount of capital per trade . A trader enters with $100 for example, every time. This means that no matter what the position is, the maximum risk of it will be that set capital. It is the most straight-forward way to size positions, and it aims at producing linear growth in their portfolio. Using a set amount of contracts per trade . A trader enters with 1 contract of the given asset per trade. When trading Bitcoin, for example, this would mean 1 contract is equal to 1 Bitcoin. This approach can be tricky to backtest and analyse, since the contract’s dollar value changes over time. A trade that has been placed at a given time when the dollar price is high may show as a bigger win or loss, and a trade at a time when the dollar price of the contract is less, can be shown as a smaller win or loss. Percentage of total equity - this method is used by traders who decide to enter with a given percentage of their total equity on each position. It is commonly used in an attempt to achieve ‘exponential growth’ of the portfolio size. However, the following fictional scenario will show how luck plays a major role in the outcome of such a sizing method. Let’s assume that the trader has chosen to enter with 50% of their total capital per position. This would mean that with an equity of $1000, a trader would enter with $500 the first time. This could lead to two situations for the first trade: - The position is profitable, and the total equity now is $1500 - The position is losing, and the total equity now is $500. When we look at these two cases, we can then go deeper into the trading process, looking at the second and third positions they enter. If the first trade is losing, and we assume that the second two are winning: a) 500 * 0.5 = 250 entry, total capital when profitable is 750 b) 750 * 0.5 = 375 entry, total capital when profitable is $1125 On the other hand, If the first trade is winning, and we assume that the second two are winning too: a) 1500 * 0.5 = 750 entry, total capital when profitable is $2250 b) 2250 * 0.5 = 1125 entry, total capital when profitable is $3375 Let’s recap: The trader enters with 50% of the capital and, based on the outcome of the first trade, even if the following two trades are profitable, the difference between the final equity is: a) First trade lost: $1125 b) First trade won: $3375 This extreme difference of $2250 comes from the single first trade, and whether it’s profitable or not. This goes to show that luck is extremely important when trading with percentage of equity, since that first trade can go any way. Traders often do not take into account the luck factor that they need to have to reach exponential growth . This leads to very unrealistic expectations of performance of their trading strategy. What is the Kelly Criterion? The percentage of equity strategy, as we saw, is dependent on luck and is very tricky. The Kelly Criterion builds on top of that method, however it takes into account factors of the trader’s strategy and historical performance to create a new way of sizing positions. This mathematical formula is employed by investors seeking to enhance their capital growth objectives. It presupposes that investors are willing to reinvest their profits and expose them to potential risks in subsequent trades. The primary aim of this formula is to ascertain the optimal allocation of capital for each individual trade. The Kelly criterion encompasses two pivotal components: Winning Probability Factor (W) : This factor represents the likelihood of a trade yielding a positive return. In the context of TradingView strategies, this refers to the Percent Profitable. Win/Loss Ratio (R) : This ratio is calculated by the maximum winning potential divided by the maximum loss potential. It could be taken as the Take Profit / Stop-Loss ratio. It can also be taken as the Largest Winning Trade / Largest Losing Trade ratio from the backtesting tab. The outcome of this formula furnishes investors with guidance on the proportion of their total capital to allocate to each investment endeavour. Commonly referred to as the Kelly strategy, Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, the formula can be expressed as follows: Kelly % = W - (1 - W) / R Where: Kelly % = Percent of equity that the trader should put in a single trade W = Winning Probability Factor R = Win/Loss Ratio This Kelly % is the suggested percentage of equity a trader should put into their position, based on this sizing formula. With the change of Winning Probability and Win/Loss ratio, traders are able to re-apply the formula to adjust their position size. Let’s see an example of this formula. Let’s assume our Win/Loss Ration (R) is the Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss from the TradingView backtesting statistics. Let’s say the Win/Loss ratio is 0.965. Also, let’s assume that the Winning Probability Factor is the Percent Profitable statistics from TradingView’s backtesting window. Let’s assume that it is 70%. With this data, our Kelly % would be: Kelly % = 0.7 - (1 - 0.7) / 0.965 = 0.38912 = 38.9% Therefore, based on this fictional example, the trader should allocate around 38.9% of their equity and not more, in order to have an optimal position size according to the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly formula, in essence, aims to answer the question of “What percent of my equity should I use in a trade, so that it will be optimal”. While any method it is not perfect, it is widely used in the industry as a way to more accurately size positions that use percent of equity for entries. Caution disclaimer Although adherents of the Kelly Criterion may choose to apply the formula in its conventional manner, it is essential to acknowledge the potential downsides associated with allocating an excessively substantial portion of one's portfolio into a solitary asset. In the pursuit of diversification, investors would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investments that surpass 20% of their overall equity, even if the Kelly Criterion advocates a more substantial allocation. Source about information on Kelly Criterion www.investopedia.com
Editors' picks
Education
by sofex
2
Invitation Homes - The Strangest Stock I Know OfInvitation Homes NYSE:INVH presents a fascinating and somewhat enigmatic story within financial markets - especially as a stock that can be traded. I personally, am quite bearish and think its crash would benefit countless home buyers across the country. Let me explain... Founded by Blackstone, this company has evolved into the largest single-owner entity of homes in the United States. Today, they own over 80,000 single-family and multi-family homes. How did they do this? Invitation Homes took advantage of low-interest rates to amass its portfolio, buying home after home, and using the cash flows from renting those homes, to secure loans to buy even more homes. As far as I can tell, they own 80,000+ homes that are all dependent on the cash flow from renting those homes out being greater than the costs to service them whether it's repairs, taxes or something else. In a way, this kind of card game, cards stacking on top of cards, reminds me of the financial crisis. Remove one card and... For a little more historical context: Invitation Homes has managed to become the fastest-growing entity of single family home purchases that has ever existed. Even more interesting, one can't help but wonder if their acquisitions have, in some way, artificially inflated housing prices in certain areas. Did home prices really rise as much as they did an organic fashion? Or did one single buyer prop up entire markets? And now, their purchases have nearly halted, meaning the buying power in those regions is shrinking dramatically. It's possible that they were cornering the market on themselves! In essence, Invitation Homes serves as a captivating case study in the intricate dance between the real estate market, financial markets, and now trading/investing. I wonder what kind of implications a home purchaser like this could face if the market were to realize some cracks in its model. What if it was forced write down its book as home prices correct? What if rents drop? What if counties raise their taxes? What if the wear and tear of certain homes exceed their monthly rental costs? It's on my watchlist as a SHORT, because the company that could be worth $0.00 if the market turns on them faster than is being realized. No position right now, but watching.
NYSE:INVH
by scheplick
1
🔥 ARM IPO: Worth the hype? Should I chase? What even is it?ARM DD: Before you read this, understand that trying to buy IPOs when they begin trading isn't guaranteed and if you market buy, you will get roasted. It's not good to chase IPOs. No matter if this is the next NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:TSLA and NASDAQ:AMZN combined, do not chase and only make wise and calculated decisions while trading. I've been waiting for this IPO for a while. It's finally here. It might be the most over anticipated IPO in a while. Trade carefully. Do not chase blindly. Have a plan. Trade the plan. If it doesn't come, move on. If you learn something or want to trade with me, give me a follow & join my community. Thanks. IPO valued @ $55B. Around $51 per share. They are only releasing 9% of the total shares to the public. So it has a tiny float. SoftBank is the owner, they bought ARM 7 years ago. The floor for me is 40B USD valuation. Meaning, around $38.50 is support. Where did I get that number? NVDA was closing on buying ARM for 40B USD in 2020. NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:INTC , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , TSM, Samsung, are all interested in investing in ARM. What does ARM do? ARM is not a chip manufacturer. ARM designs chips & system processors & holds patents to chips and they license their technology to other big tech like AAPL, NVDA. Hence, NVDA wanted to buy them for 40B USD. THE POSITIVES: SoftBank bought out someone's 25% stake in ARM recently. For 16B USD. That puts it at a FWB:64B valuation in their eyes. That means the owner of ARM expects ARM to surpass 64B USD. NVDA CEO loves ARM, but NVDA failed to acquire it. NVDA CEO has been selling NVDA. Around 150k shares this year. Last sale 14M USD on 9/11/23. IMO he's freeing up to buy ARM @ IPO. Remember SoftBank is a 90% owner. Everyone who wants it gets it at IPO. Yes, even NVDA CEO. The float is tiny, and asset managers . NYSE:TSM expressed interest of 100M USD investment This might be the most hyped IPO in a while. THE NEGATIVES: SoftBank is a known dumper. SoftBank bought ARM in 2016 for $32B. They tried flipping it in 2020 for 40B USD to NVDA. So they were happy with a 8B flip USD in 4 years. Sus. Shows signs that if ARM does well, they'll unload. Because SoftBank are known dumpers, once they dump one time, investors will get shook. Their net income is low. Under 550M. Their revenue is around $2.7B. Their net income dropped YoY. Again, I will evaluate if I'm buying this and post my entries/ exits in my community. Welcome to join. Stay tuned.
NASDAQ:ARMLong
by kingdips
17
Audius / AUDIO & TIKTOK 🎵The price of Audius is $0.36 today with a 24hour trading volume of 100 million dollars. This represents a 20% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 80% price increase in the past 30 days Audius is a decentralized music streaming protocol. Artists can upload their music to the network which will be streamed by nodes to listeners through a mobile app. AUDIO is the native token for the platform and is used for staking, governance, and incentivized earnings for artists, fans, and node operators. The Audius project recently announced a partnership with Tik Tok in which musics on the platform will be available to users on one of the largest social network in the world.With the integration, users new to Audius can simply create accounts by linking their TikTok profile. From there, listeners can automatically import their handle, information and carry over their TikTok verification status to Audius. next targets are 0.39, 0.45 and 0.49$
Long
by moonypto
12
Searching The Ocean Floor For Beaten Down StocksInvesting in beaten-down stocks can be a tempting prospect, as these stocks often come with the allure of potentially high returns at a discounted price. However, it's essential to be aware of the risks associated with such investments. Beaten-down stocks typically belong to companies facing significant challenges, whether it's poor financial performance, management issues, or adverse market conditions. With that being said, I don't ever think it's a good idea... Unless... You think you've found something that the market has totally miscalculated in its valuation. I am not a believer in efficient markets, and thus, I must occasionally believe that bargains are possible. The companies on this chart are all beaten down stocks. I'm not saying that they are buys or sells. Just that they are on my watchlist. It seems that one or two of these may be totally misvalued. I need to do some research. I don't know enough about these companies, but they are now on my watchlist. Here's a brief overview of the symbols listed: Desktop Metal NYSE:DM - This 3D printing company experienced a rollercoaster ride in its stock price due to the volatility of the tech sector. While the potential for revolutionary technology is there, investing in a beaten-down stock like Desktop Metal carries the risk of prolonged losses if the company's products fail to gain widespread adoption or if competition intensifies. Expensify NASDAQ:EXFY - Expensify is in the business of expense management software, a niche that is subject to market fluctuations and competition from larger players. Buying beaten-down Expensify stock may lead to losses if the company struggles to differentiate itself or if its customer base doesn't expand as expected. Canopy Growth NASDAQ:CGC - As a prominent player in the cannabis industry, Canopy Growth faced regulatory challenges and market volatility. Investing in this beaten-down stock entails the risk of ongoing legal and regulatory hurdles, which can significantly affect the company's performance. The cannabis industry also faces competition and supply chain issues that could impact profitability. Vimeo NASDAQ:VMEO - Vimeo, a video-sharing platform, competes in a crowded market alongside giants like YouTube. Buying beaten-down Vimeo stock carries the risk of underperformance if it fails to capture a significant share of the market or if user engagement doesn't meet expectations. Allbirds NASDAQ:BIRD - They make shoes... they had a euphoric moment, but it's been nothing but down ever since. Closed stores and more. I still see people wearing them and their material is unique. I don't own a pair, but I need to check the shoes out a little more. That's all. Update coming in a few months.
NYSE:DM
by scheplick
6
How Could Apple's Market Cap Impact Bitcoin and Crypto Markets?THE APPLE FACTOR Introduction: The crypto world is always abuzz with potential catalysts for market movements, and this time, it's not just crypto-related news making waves. Renowned crypto analyst Nicholas Merten, better known as DataDash, recently shared his insights on how a declining Apple market cap could have significant implications for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency markets. In this TradingView article, we'll delve into Merten's analysis and explore the potential consequences for the crypto space. The Apple Decline: A Cause for Concern? Apple Inc., one of the world's largest tech giants, reached a milestone in July 2023 when its market capitalization hit an astounding $3 trillion. However, since then, Apple's market cap has experienced a decline, currently resting at $2.79 trillion at the time of writing. Merten argues that this downward trend in Apple's valuation could trigger a chain reaction in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. The Domino Effect on Crypto: A 60%+ Drop? Nicholas Merten suggests that if Apple continues on this path and contracts from a $3 trillion company to a $1.5 trillion company, it could have profound consequences for Bitcoin. He argues that this impact could surpass even major crypto events like halving or the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. In his own words, Merten states, "If that scenario plays out, you can easily see Bitcoin coming down here to new lows at around $10,000 to $12,000." While he emphasizes that it's not a guarantee, it's a scenario that traders and investors should take seriously. Why Does Apple Matter? The significance of Apple's decline goes beyond its sheer size. Apple's market cap decline has a cascading effect on other equities, including tech giants like Microsoft and the famous FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google). Additionally, it could impact the broader stock market and, crucially, the cryptocurrency space, from Bitcoin to various altcoins. As Merten puts it, "Those small percentage declines, while they seem small, are magnified when you consider Apple’s valuation and the weighted impact it’s going to have on other equities." Conclusion: Navigating Potential Storms The crypto market is no stranger to volatility, and external factors often play a significant role in shaping its trajectory. Nicholas Merten's warning about the potential repercussions of Apple's market cap decline is a stark reminder that the crypto world is interconnected with the broader financial ecosystem. While it's essential to stay informed and heed expert advice, it's equally crucial for traders and investors to maintain a diversified portfolio and be prepared for various scenarios. The relationship between Apple's fortunes and Bitcoin's fate is a fascinating topic to watch, and its evolution may offer valuable insights into the future of both traditional and crypto markets. As always, the key to success in trading and investing is a combination of vigilance, knowledge, and adaptability.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by CryptoSnagger
Buffett: Legacy's CrossroadsWarren Buffett, the legendary maestro of Wall Street, is making headlines once again. In an environment of soaring inflation and already high-interest rates, Berkshire Hathaway is outperforming and beating its benchmark, the S&P 500. But a crucial question looms: Are we witnessing the end of an era or a late renaissance for the Oracle of Omaha? And does this raise doubts about the wisdom of investing in Berkshire Hathaway as Buffett and Munger age? At the heart of this debate, several elements warrant a deep dive: 1. The Intrinsic Value Advantage: The current environment of inflation and high-interest rates favors companies with tangible assets and strong cash flows, a characteristic Berkshire Hathaway possesses in abundance. Real assets like infrastructure and well-established businesses become more attractive in times of inflation, clearly playing to Warren Buffett's strengths. 2. The Return to Prudence: Rising interest rates prompt many investors to adopt a more cautious approach. Buffett, renowned for his legendary investment wisdom, thrives when volatility rises and uncertainty abounds. His long-term, value-focused investment style finds renewed relevance, offering a ray of hope to concerned investors. 3. Seeking Protection Against Inflation: During periods of rampant inflation, investors seek assets that can preserve the value of their money. Berkshire Hathaway, with its diverse portfolio spanning various sectors, offers a potential refuge against currency devaluation. Well-managed, cash-generating businesses held by Berkshire can shield investments from the detrimental effects of inflation. 4. Reactivated Growth Opportunities: In a high-interest-rate environment, solid companies with well-established business models regain favor. Berkshire Hathaway is ideally positioned to capitalize on these steadier growth opportunities. Emphasizing prudent, long-term management aligns with the needs of investors seeking stability. But the Crucial Question: Is Investing in Berkshire Hathaway Still Relevant? The pivotal question at hand is whether investing in Berkshire Hathaway remains relevant as Warren Buffett and his long-time partner, Charlie Munger, advance in age. Both iconic figures are nearing their 90th year, raising questions about succession and the enduring philosophy that characterizes Berkshire Hathaway's unique approach to investing. Perhaps we are witnessing the final chapter of the Buffett era, where the maestro, while still capable of outperforming, gradually passes the torch to a new generation of portfolio managers. If Buffett's magic endures, his influence and legacy will persist, but it's inevitable to wonder if we're witnessing an inevitable transition. Intriguing Outlooks for the Future: So, what does the future hold for Berkshire Hathaway after Buffett and Munger? Speculation abounds. Some envision a smooth transition, with Berkshire's current teams carrying forward the spirit and management philosophy inherited from Buffett. Others contemplate a potential breakup of the conglomerate into smaller, specialized entities. The possibilities are myriad, and every investor ponders which strategy will prevail. One of the most intriguing scenarios is a Berkshire Hathaway that further diversifies into emerging technologies and innovation while retaining its traditional investments in tangible sectors. In conclusion, Warren Buffett seems to have regained his magic touch in an environment of inflation and high-interest rates. However, investing in Berkshire Hathaway is now at the center of a complex debate. The question of whether we are witnessing the end of a legendary era or the dawn of a late renaissance remains open. Time will tell, but one thing is certain: Warren Buffett's story is far from over, and the financial world continues to watch with fascination. Stay tuned for the evolving narrative, where investment decisions in Berkshire Hathaway may hold captivating surprises for the future.
NYSE:BRK.B
by Julien_Eche