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THE MOST IMPORTANT FOREX FUNDAMENTALS 📰 Hey traders, Even though I am a pure technician and I rely only on technical analysis when I trade, we can not deny the fact that fundamentals are the main driver of the financial markets. In this post, we will discuss the most important fundamentals that affect forex market. 📍Unemployment rate. Unemployment rate reflects the percentage of people without a job in a selected country or region. Rising unemployment rate usually signifies an unhealthy state of the economy and negatively affects the currency strength. 📍Housing prices. Housing prices reflect people's demand for housing. Rising rate reflects a healthy state of the economy, strengthening purchasing power of the individuals and their confidence in the future. Growing demand for housing is considered to be one of the most important drivers in the economy. 📍Inflation. Inflation reflects the purchasing power of a currency. It is usually measured by evaluation of the price of the selected basket of goods or services over some period. High inflation is usually the primary indicator of the weakness of the currency and the unhealthy state of the economy. 📍Monetary policy. Monetary policy is the actions of central banks related to money supply in the economy. There are two main levers: interests rates and bank reserve requirements. Higher interest rates suppress the economy, making the currency stronger. Lower interests rates increase the money supply, making the economy grow but devaluing the national currency. 📍Political discourse. Political discourse is the social, economical and geopolitical policies of the national government. Political ideology determines the set of priorities for the ruling party that directly impacts the state of the economy. 📍Payrolls and earnings. Payroll reports reflect the dynamic of the creation of new jobs by the economy, while average earnings show the increase or decrease of the earnings of the individuals. Growing earnings and payrolls positively affect the value of a national currency and signify the expansion of the economy. Pay closes attention to these fundamentals and monitor how the market reacts to that data. What fundamentals do you consider to be the most important? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
5
Gold bears Gold has been in a bear market and is showing significant signs of further moves to the downside. We have further confluence with the DXY(Dollar gaining strength), Gold has spiked on a Strong resistance and is current pushing higher as of Tuesday(last week of the month). I'm expecting a Pump and Dump on gold as it has to Trap Traders in the wrong side of the market before I pulsing to the downside. I would like a Formation of a Bullish flag as to induce more buy as this will insure a breakage of those strong resistive areas. If a bullish inducing pattern does not occur, gold will push higher as to trigger buyers into the market. It would be advisable to wait for breakage of Structure/Bullish inducer to occur as to get the best prices
TVC:GOLDShort
by PJ_Tsotetsi
If you understand this chart, you are not bullish for markets.If you understand this chart, you are not bullish for the U.S. / World Markets - (Opinion) So I watch a lot of indexes for research purposes and fun honestly. Seeing how different sectors of finance move when fundamental, sentiment and technical news influences them has always been interesting to me. Recently while researching I came across a chart that made my heart sink. I never really experienced this in my life, as I've been studying monetary policy and trading for years at this point. This is the Hang Sang Index put up in contrast with the DOW Jones Industrial Average. Before you read this article do you know why I'm mirroring these two indexes? What assumptions can you take from these charts? Can you predict any high probability assumptions from your conclusions? Let me break this down from a first principles perspective, which is the way I love teaching the most. When looking at markets, the price action is moved through supply and demand. Especially when looking at indexes of these sorts, as they are largely referenced from the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of a country, along with many other factors, of course. When we look at these two indexes we notice that the HSI is slightly trailing the DOW over most of the time period. Why is this? It's because China is the worlds largest, supplier and conversely, the U.S. is the worlds largest demander. An assumption we can make here is that in more cases than not their markets move first due to this factor. This makes sense though, the west cannot generate a profit unless it has the materials for the goods and resources it wishes to produce and we need to pay before we receive those resources, in most cases. So what can we extrapolate from all of this information? Well, HSI could in some cases be a leading indicator for the DOW and how the American markets will move and this can be confirmed on a macro level in this chart. Most of the major market crashes over the last 2 years can be viewed on this chart and if I had more data (Trading View) only had D going back to 2019) I'm sure I could show you much more correlation to these charts. What's most concerning is where our markets and also geopolitical landscapes our markets are currently involved in. With supply chains breaking down around the world on continental size scales the availability and in some cases the sanctions being implemented around the world has thrown into effect one of the largest global financial crises I think we've seen in well over 250 years. Now this is why I wrote opinion on the top, because going back in the American Markets, the closest thing in the last 100 years I could put this into perspective to is of course, the Great Depression. Not to be confused with the Great Recession of 2008. I am saying I believe this is WORSE than what we've seen in over 100 years. The U.S., EU, China and Russia's economies are making it increasingly difficult for free and fair trade around the world and we can see this in the large economic collapse we've seen since the end of 2019. The World Reserve Currency is now being attacked by several continents and it is safe to say the currency wars how now started between nations. You can see this in what many world economies have done to destabilize the U.S. Dollar. Things like the first time Russia defaulted on their debt in over 100 years. Chinas entire financial system in one of the worst shapes it has been in, ever. They are also "not able" to pay back a large amount of their debt to us in a U.S. Dollar amount. Tables are turning and this is why in America, they are seeing supply chains of their own breaking down. Prices of all of their commodities, goods & services skyrocketing. Cost of living in general becoming so expensive that repo and default rates are at decades long highs. The decentralization of American goods & services was one of its best and worst ideas ever. It was amazing because it was able to outsource the materials and people it needed to create one of the largest market systems the world has ever known, but it's key to working is in the fair trade, positive affiliate and respect between the buyer & seller that makes that possible. When in a war-time economy as I believe we can safely say we are in, all chips are off the table. I hope you understand what I'm trying to say here. Just a thought that's been on my mind the last couple months. I wish everyone peace love and prosperity <3 - Watson
INDEX:HSI
by WatsonsView
VSBLTY Groupe VSBGF Continues Growing$VSBGF recently took a dip, not only because of the broader "risk-off" environment and economic headwinds... recently announcing 16.7 million shares at a $0.30 offering with a warrant for additional purchase of common stock at $0.50 as well as private sale of 10 mil units for $3 million USD. Market response was bearish, on the surface this is seemingly bad as shareholders are diluted... however, peeling back the layers reveals Jay (CEO) and team are continuing to land big partnerships and agreements in the retail space. DYOR and you'll find tremendous building tailwinds and a company delivering against a bullish impermanent plan and a very bright future. Their tech is innovative and a significant value add to the market. Don't lose sight of what they're doing and don't fall asleep as the delivery begins yielding more revenue and in short order, profits.
OTC:VSBGFLong
by R0MM3LL
QANplatform - QANXI believe this one may go big in the future. Quantum-computers are close and many people will seek for safety in this new environment. "QANplatform is the quantum-resistant Layer 1 hybrid blockchain platform that will allow developers and enterprises to build quantum-resistant: smart-contracts, DApps, DeFi solutions, NFTs, tokens, Metaverse on top of the QAN-blockchain platform in any programming language." "QANplatform is the only Layer-1 blockchain that has integrated CRYSTALS-Dilithium in its security layer." NIST - National Institute of Standards and Technology: Announcement of winners of 6 year competition in search of encryption tools that are designed to withstand the assault of a future quantum-computer attacks. Algorithms for general encryption: CRYSTALS-Kyber Algorithms For digital signatures: CRYSTALS-Dilithium, FALCON and SPHINCS+ The information is not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort.
by joze10000
1
EU - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISIn response to fears that the energy crisis will throw Europe into recession and restrict ECB's ability to tighten monetary policy, the Euro dropped as low as $1.01 for the first time in over 20 years. On July 11, Nord Stream 1, the key gas pipeline, began annual maintenance. Flows are expected to stop for 10 days, but concerns linger that supply might not recover fully. This month, the European Central Bank is expected to raise key rates by 25 basis points, the first increase in more than a decade, while the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points after a cumulative 150 basis point increase since March.
by una_exp
BTCUSD (07/07/2022) "review and improve of the last (1h btcusd)"(Lets Recover And Improve) The last analysis with a short in bitcoin published yesterday 06/07 was not of sufficient quality, luckily I was able to cut the short before executing it in negative with the stoploss, Since this afternoon, knowing that I wasn't going to get home soon and that I don't like to leave operations open when I can't have even the slightest control over them, I've decided to close it. As I have said, I do not like to leave operations open at night and I think that any short-term trader has this very clear, I have decided not to be able to sleep to correct the analysis previously done, realizing the number of errors and presuppositions that I had given after the fatigue of having done a lot of behavior analysis this morning. Right now I have not executed any Short, I have left, as if they were open trades with the TradingView tool, two short simulations with a behavior that seems much more rational to me, even so the real entry if I wanted to trade from REAL would not be given until the second short with confirmation of fall. I may not be a great analyst yet and spend too much time and frustration most of the time before a true objective study, but as long as I continue to keep these journals as a reminder of my improvement and advancement in knowledge I am satisfied. Good evening and I hope that if someone takes too long to read this, they have the luck and the desire to want and be able to continue operating or learning from it. A strong greeting! ---------------------------------------------------------------ç El último análisis con un short en bitcoin publicado ayer dia 06/07 carecía de calidad suficiente, por suerte fui capaz de cortar el short antes de ejecutarlo en negativo con el stoploss, desde esta tarde sabiendo que no iba a llegar pronto a casa y que no me gusta dejar operaciones abiertas cuando no puedo llevar un mínimamente leve control sobre ellas he decidido cerrarla. Como bien he dicho no me gusta dejar operaciones abiertas de noche y creo que cualquier trader cortoplazista tiene esto muy claro, he decdido al no poder dormir corregir el análisis previamente hecho, dandome cuenta de la cantidad de errores y presuposiciones que había dado tras el cansancio de haber hecho mucho mucho análisis de comportamientos esta mañana. Ahora mismo no he ejecutado ningun Short, he dejado como si fueran operaciones abiertas con la herramienta de TradingView dos simulaciones de short con un comportamiento que me parece mucho mas racional, aun así la verdadera entrada si quisese operar de froma REAL no la daría hasta el segundo short con confirmación de caída. Quizás no se aún un gran analista y dedique demasiado tiempo y frustración la mayoría de las veces antes que un verdadero estudio objetivo, pero mientras siga manteniendo estas publicaciones de diario como recordatorio de mi mejora y avance en conocimientos estoy satisfecho. Buenas noches y espero que si alguien se demora a leer esto tenga la suerte y las ganas de querer y poder seguir operando o aprendiendo de ello. Un fuerte saludo!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by AVNGL01
4
ADA Cardano VASIL Hardfork DetailsHI Friends. Today i decide to explain more about coming upgrade in cardano blockchain. without wasting time lets go friends. Vasil Hardfork: Another Network Upgrade On The Cardano Blockchain A hardfork is a software upgrade to a blockchain’s network, making previously invalid transactions and blocks valid. While many blockchains rarely do the hardfork, Cardano (ADA) is a sort of blockchain that experiences periodic improvements every year. After their first hardfork, Alonzo, now Cardano is on track to implement another fork called the ‘Vasil hardfork’. Vasil hardfork is the second massive upgrade to the Cardano network that focuses on overall network stability and connectivity. With Vasil, pipelining testing, new CIP mechanisms (CIP-31, CIP-32, CIP-33, CIP-40), UTXO on-disk storage integration, and Hydra will be introduced as added functions. once Vasil hardfork is completed, Cardano will receive a higher throughput and an enhanced range of decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized exchange (DEX), and smart contracts. These enhancements are derived from the scaling improvements of the network as stated earlier, including pipelining tests, improved logging, the release of four CIPs: CIP-31 (Reference Input), CIP-32 (Inline Datum), CIP-33 (Reference Script), and CIP-40 (Collateral Output), UTXO HD and Hydra integration. CIP’s Explanation: CIP-33 is expected to significantly reduce transaction costs, by making transactions small and “lightweight” CIP-31 will facilitate Decentralized Apps (DApps) to access transactional output without having to recreate it as before. CIP-32 introduces an on-chain data storage for the community and developers, thereby making Cardano a “truly decentralized architecture”. CIP-40 executing a Plutus Smart contract requires a collateral amount, which means users must include a fee to cover the cost of executing the script.When a transaction fails validation, said collateral is completely lost. CIP-40 changes this by including just enough collateral in a transaction for it to go through and setting a limit to failed transactions, so it can only lose a minimum amount of collateral. Despite several crashes and bearish market cycles at the moment, ADA still performs well and ranks in the top 10th percentile on the crypto market, based on its market capitalization this upgrade scheduled to happen in 29 june 2022 but its delayed for next month july. thank you for your reading and your support. hope to like this post.please share me your opinion in comments.
by TraderAmin-KZ
2
LONG Citigroup, most undervalued US bankReasons to buy: -one of warren buffet's recent buys -Trading below 5 year avg p/b valuations (0.80) at 0.51 -Book value of 94USD per share, fair value = 75USD per share VS current price of 46USD (63% upside) -4% dividend yield -Cheapest out of all US banks -Rising interest rates pushes up Net interest margins While slowing economic growth will curtail near-term loan growth, expect that rising interest rates, robust economic growth, and moderating inflation will provide a good tailwind for banks. These factors will lead to rising interest income, maintaining low default rates, and lowering charge offs.
NYSE:CLong
by FIRE_CAPITAL_SG
2
035. PIGGISH PLAY - Long Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD)Royal Gold Inc. is now positioned for the holy grail of bullish baggers. The bags on this trade are so big that I had to steal a pot from some greedy leprechaun in order to fit all the potential gains in one location. For a visual perspective of the potential gainz on this trade, see the upper-right-hand part of the chart for the 'Pig Pot'. I also sometimes keep weed in there, so please leave that bag alone/let me know if you happen to find it. I. Fundamental Briefing: This will be the second Pig Play in a row where I touch upon the fundamental situation of the underlying company's financials. I usually prefer to keep it technical because that is the only moral basis to take a trade. But the fundamental picture needs to be addressed for RGLD because it is actually undervalued. That's right - in what must be the frothiest market in American history, we have ourselves a SEVERELY UNDERVALUED stock that just released a heroic quarterly report. Not only is this company operationally best-in-class, but it just cleared the remainder of its payable notes while also securing an enormous line of credit, if needed. This is an important detail because it hints at a potentially aggressive strategy with acquisitions and property expansions galore. For those less acquainted with the precious metals industry, there is a particular category of company that operates as a collector-of-sorts, whereby it simply takes a royalty from operations on the properties it owns. These properties are usually large plots of land that contain one or multiple mines that are available for digging by the mining companies that have a contractual right to do so. Once the refined product is sold to third-party retailers (presumably by the mining companies, but could be other parties at times), Royal Gold proves its namesake by collecting a royalty at the time of sale. Aside from Royal, the other major royalty player in this space is Franco Nevada, which I also personally like, but is not nearly as undervalued as our guy here. The bottom fundamental line is that it's great! If you want to know more or don't believe me, take a glance at their latest quarterly numbers and guidance for 2022. II. Technical Picture: Much like what RGLD does, I have discovered the locations of the largest mines in the chart and identified them as such. The geometric form on the left side of the chart is a rather complicated arrangement of triangles and circles that are drawn to form golden rectangles and other such sacred angles. This sort of 'geometric' style of technical analysis is both difficult to teach and actually use for accurate projections. It is not a set of techniques that is practical to use intraday because of how time consuming it is to get precise projections. In any case, I have manipulated and contorted a few of the angles and distances to project out where the bullish and bearish landmine hits are likely to occur in time and in price. It just so happens that there are a string of harmonically-spaced LANDMINES set to explode in perfect order in the days and weeks to come. I will say that I've never seen such a perfect array of bullish line extensions like this and am very excited to buy and hold and do nothing for once. For the record, its laughable that people actually brag about their success with this strategy when there is legitimately nothing to it - especially if it is an alt-coin. To wrap this up before the opportunity disappears, the reason why this is so special is because there is a very high chance that you can use short-term options like you would any run-of-the-mill pure equity play. That is, between the dates of ~ February 11th and July 18th, there is hardly any resistance that will cause this move much trouble. If anything, it might delay the inevitable continues rally to 150+, but that can be easily dealt with by having the right options strategy (see next section). III. Pig Spec's and Other Entry Details: Unlike most of my plays, this one has farther-spaced contract expiration dates. There are only 4 to choose from between now and July 18th. They are as follows: a) March 18th b) April 14th c) June 17th d) July 15th - (its as if the makers know about the July 18th cutoff) The way I am going to play this is to distribute all of my allotted capital to the April 14th expiration. That is, 100% of the capital is going toward three different strikes, all for April 14th. I am going to enter these three strikes tomorrow, see below for details: BUY LONG CALLS ON RGLD (80% of Total Capital) BUY LONG CALLS ON RGLD (20 % of Total Capital) That is all for now, see reasoning section below for strategic explanation. IV. Options Strategy Explained: The way I would like to play this is to mimic the process of buying and holding equity with the expectation of higher prices and steady gains. This is mainly because of the very low probability that the stock trades below 115 for the period between now and mid-July. I am making this assumption based on some of the characteristics of the particular geometric structure of the chart and the timing of the major underlying trends in precious metals. As far as strike selection goes, 110 is an extremely safe level from here on out. As it stands today, the premium structure is such that you can pay proportionately the same for the 115 and 120 strikes without incurring an additional cost for this safety. This deal exists for the 4/14 110 strike, but it will not last, so I advise entering swiftly at some point during the trading day tomorrow. The only barrier for this strike is the higher cost per contract, which is why the saying goes, "it takes money to make money." Still, with the protection it offers in this spot, Id much prefer to own half the number of contracts with less than a quarter of the implied risk. To this last point of having to tradeoff between safety and number of contracts owned - the solution lies in the remaining 25% of allotted capital going towards the much more aggressive 130 strike for the same expiry. While I say "aggressive" with a straight face, it is a little comical to call it as such given some of the other plays I've made in the past. The point is that this trade is golden and proof of this lies in how un-aggressive the aggressive portion of the position is. Unlike the SBUX play, this one is slower and more methodical and may last until mid-July. Therefore, I do not foresee making many changes to the above setup, in terms of the options held. I will provide an updated plan around mid-March depending on how much RGLD moves from now until then. Otherwise, I will not provide mid-play guidance for this one, unless something extremely strange happens where gold gets outlawed or something in the next couple of months. America has outlawed gold before, so it wouldn't totally shock me. Sort of kidding, but whats great is that it represents the biggest risk that I can see with this trade. = Bagz Galore -King-Pig NASDAQ:RGLD AMEX:GLD TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER FXOPEN:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! MCX:SILVER1! AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ FTX:PAXGUSD
NASDAQ:RGLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
16
Plan for potential "ape" spreadJust a small idea. I like this company; been trading it since 2018 and the pandemic. "In case" the Monkeypox virus spreads, this could be a decent hedge. We saw $SIGA with huge gaps last week (similar play), which likely will open higher on Monday. According to one source; It's spread through droplets and/or contact with infected lesions; skin contact coughs, etc. In other words, this is nothing you only inhale, like Covid" By that, hospital staff would need to wear full protective gear (In worst-case scenario). Alpha Pro Tech makes "high-value disposable Personal Protective Apparel and masks", and I, therefore, expect it to extend its weekly base building and breakout. Entered Thursday. Had a nice PocketPivot and wedge BO from Friday. Stop: 5% start. When 5% gained -> moved to B/E before trailing 5%/ma10. Not my classic setup, but there are not any good breakouts in this market anyway :) Good luck next week.
AMEX:APTLong
by TechFille006