Nifty IT Complex Cup with HandleNifty IT had broken above the neckline of Complex Cup with Handle Pattern as can be seen in the chart.
It is down with some bad news in the Global Markets and currently, offers a sure shot returns of 21% as per the technical target.
This is the easiest money available in the Indian market right now as the companies included in the index are some of the largest and most trusted with excellent track record.
As they say, investors must 'Feel Greedy when others are Fearful.'
The worst is over for IT and this SAFE CONTRARIAN bet will surely make you feel proud of yourself when it achieves target.
You can trade this index with ITBEES ETF available on NSE.
Z-VALUE
TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONGTBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a
regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must
navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand
with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the
US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The
Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for
instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this
as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth
the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come
on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more
and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close
them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.
BASF India - Diversified Investment**Overview and Key Highlights**
1. **Revenue and Profitability**:
- **Revenue**: BASF India Limited reported a revenue of Rs. 137,674.8 million for the financial year 2023-2024, showing a slight increase from Rs. 136,447.7 million in the previous year.
- **Profit Before Tax**: The company recorded a profit before tax (before exceptional items) of Rs. 7,589.5 million, up from Rs. 5,280.9 million in the previous year.
2. **Dividend**:
- The Board of Directors has recommended a dividend of 150% (Rs. 15 per equity share), an increase from 80% (Rs. 8 per equity share) in the previous year.
3. **Segment Performance**:
- **Agricultural Solutions**: Registered good growth driven by products like Exponus® in insecticides, Priaxor® in fungicides, and Tynzer® in herbicides.
- **Industrial Solutions**: The Dispersions business saw higher volumes despite lower price realizations, while the Performance Chemicals business faced challenging market conditions but improved margins due to lower input costs.
- **Materials Segment**: Performance Materials and Monomers businesses showed significant growth, driven by high demand and new product sales.
- **Surface Technologies**: Coatings business improved marginally, while Catalysts business saw strong volume growth but faced higher input costs.
4. **Sustainability and Environmental Initiatives**:
- BASF India Limited has been focusing on environmental stewardship, achieving REDcert2 Certification for its Dispersion plants and reducing dependence on fossil fuels by procuring renewable energy.
- The company has also launched initiatives like BASF Kids’ Lab and We-Chemie to promote chemistry education and inclusion of women in the chemical industry.
5. **Corporate Governance and Compliance**:
- The company has maintained high standards of corporate governance, complying with all relevant regulations and standards.
- There were no significant qualifications or reservations in the auditors’ reports.
**Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics**
1. **Revenue Growth**:
- The revenue growth rate is approximately 1.1% year-over-year, indicating stable performance despite global economic uncertainties.
2. **Profit Margin**:
- The profit before tax margin has improved from about 3.9% in the previous year to around 5.5% in the current year, reflecting better cost management and product mix.
3. **Debt and Liquidity**:
- The company had no borrowings as of the end of the financial year 2023-2024, indicating strong liquidity and financial health.
- The debt-to-equity ratio was nil, further highlighting the company’s robust financial position.
4. **Return on Equity (ROE)**:
- Although not explicitly stated, the ROE can be calculated using the profit after tax and shareholders' equity. Given the profit after tax of Rs. 5,633.5 million and shareholders' equity of approximately Rs. 32,235.8 million, the ROE would be around 17.5%, indicating a healthy return on equity.
5. **Cash Flow**:
- The company generated cash from operations of Rs. 8,072.4 million during the year, demonstrating efficient working capital management.
**Core Business and Strategic Initiatives**
1. **Product Diversification**:
- BASF India Limited operates across various segments including Agricultural Solutions, Industrial Solutions, Materials, Surface Technologies, and Nutrition & Care. This diversification helps in mitigating risks and capitalizing on growth opportunities across different markets.
2. **Innovation and R&D**:
- The company has been investing in research and development, evident from the launch of new products like Efficon® Insecticide and the expansion of its Polyurethane Technical Development Center in Mumbai.
3. **Sustainability and ESG**:
- BASF India Limited has been proactive in sustainability initiatives, aiming to reduce its carbon footprint and promote environmental stewardship. The company has set targets to reduce its absolute CO2 emissions and achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
4. **Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)**:
- The company has a robust CSR policy focusing on areas such as Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH), Education, and Skill Development. It has spent Rs. 119 million on CSR activities during the financial year 2023-2024.
**Risk Management and Compliance**
1. **Risk Assessment**:
- The company has a mechanism for risk assessment and minimization, with regular reviews to ensure that risks are identified and controlled effectively.
2. **Compliance**:
- BASF India Limited has been compliant with all statutory requirements and has not faced any significant material orders from regulators or courts that could impact its operations.
3. **Internal Financial Controls**:
- The company has robust internal financial control systems in place, ensuring the orderly conduct of its business and safeguarding its assets.
Price Trends and Patterns
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: The chart shows several horizontal lines indicating key support levels. These levels acted as a floor, preventing the stock from falling further during pullbacks. Notable support levels were observed around 6,000 and 5,500.
Resistance Levels: Similarly, resistance levels acted as a ceiling, capping the stock’s upward movement. Key resistance levels were identified around 7,000 and 8,000.
Green Lines as Support:
The green lines drawn in the middle of long candlesticks have played a crucial role as support levels. These lines have consistently acted as a strong foundation, allowing the price to bounce back whenever it approached these levels.
Candlestick Patterns:
Bullish Patterns: Throughout the uptrend phases, we observed bullish candlestick patterns such as the hammer and bullish engulfing, signaling potential buying opportunities.
Bearish Patterns: During the correction phases, bearish patterns like the shooting star and bearish engulfing indicated potential selling pressure.
Volume Analysis
Trading volume is a critical component of price action analysis. The volume bars at the bottom of the chart provide insights into the strength of price movements:
High Volume on Uptrends: During the uptrend phases, we noticed increased trading volume, confirming the strength of the bullish moves. High volume on up days suggests strong investor interest and confidence.
Volume Spikes on Breakouts: Significant volume spikes were observed during breakout attempts above resistance levels. These spikes indicate strong buying interest, often leading to sustained upward movements.
**Conclusion**
BASF India Limited has demonstrated strong financial performance and operational resilience in the face of global economic uncertainties. The company's focus on sustainability, innovation, and corporate governance positions it well for long-term growth and profitability. Investors looking for a stable and socially responsible investment opportunity may find BASF India Limited an attractive option.
**Investment Considerations**
1. **Stable Financial Performance**: The company's consistent revenue growth and improved profitability make it a stable investment option.
2. **Sustainability Initiatives**: BASF India Limited's commitment to environmental stewardship and social responsibility aligns with the growing trend of ESG investing.
3. **Innovation and R&D**: The company's investment in research and development ensures a pipeline of new products and technologies, driving future growth.
4. **Robust Corporate Governance**: The company's adherence to high standards of corporate governance provides assurance of ethical and transparent business practices.
However, investors should also consider the following:
1. **Market Risks**: The company's performance can be affected by global economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and market volatility.
2. **Regulatory Risks**: Changes in regulations, particularly those related to environmental and safety standards, could impact the company's operations and costs.
3. **Competition**: The chemical industry is highly competitive, and the company must continually innovate and improve its products to maintain market share.
Overall, BASF India Limited presents a compelling investment case for those seeking a stable, innovative, and socially responsible company with strong financial fundamentals.
Bearish EURCHF Trade Idea: 58.96% Probability of Hitting TP1!The Euro is facing headwinds due to ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone. Persistent inflation concerns, coupled with the European Central Bank's cautious monetary policy stance, are weighing on the currency. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc continues to benefit from its safe-haven status amidst global economic uncertainties.
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and economic slowdown fears in major Eurozone economies like Germany are further contributing to the Euro's weakness relative to the Swiss Franc. The Swiss National Bank's commitment to maintaining price stability also supports the Franc's strength.
Regarding the trading strategy, I'll be employing a probability-based approach to enter short positions on EURCHF.
I use an indicator that does all the probability calculations based on historical data.
Here's the comprehensive top-down analysis:
12M:
1D:
6H:
Dollar General | DG | Long at $90.00Dollar General NYSE:DG took a massive hit this morning after revising their future earnings guidance. The economy is showing many signs of a recession, and this is a clear warning. From a technical analysis perspective, it has retouched my "crash" simple moving average and may dip further into the $80's in the near-term. But, like many overall strong companies that suddenly plummet, I view this as a future opportunity given the strength of NYSE:DG as a business (holistically). Dollar General is the only grocery and home goods store around in many rural locations. So, while there is doom and gloom in the near-term, Dollar General is in a personal buy zone at $90.00. I view this as a starter position, though, with the potential for future declines/opportunities for additional share accumulation in the near-term.
Target #1 = $100.00
Target #2 = $122.00
Target #3 = $200.00+ (very-long term outlook...)
GBPUSD TUESDAY 26thBuy side liquidity has been taken out (Friday high) after tapping on the 4hr fvg. Price left a daily bisi yesterday with sell side liquidity sitting above it so expecting a draw on ssl today then watch if price will respect the daily fvg.
NB: News coming later at 5pm 👀 waiting for the new York session.
The TradingView Show: Volatility Spikes with TradeStationWelcome to our latest live TradingView show with TradeStation! Kick back and watch this show to learn about the key things that are moving markets and shaping the conversation as the summer trading season comes to an end. What will you learn in this show?
Recent Price Action: We’ll analyze the market movements since the "carry trade crash" and see how this has affected various asset classes.
Interest Rates: We'll explore the latest developments in interest rates and their implications for trading strategies.
Dollar Index: Understand the current trends in the Dollar Index and how it influences currency movements.
Currencies: We’ll break down recent changes in currency pairs and what they mean for traders.
Then, we dive into a masterclass about Catalysts for Stock Movements, in which you'll learn about the key factors driving stock price changes. We’ll discuss 7 important catalysts to watch for, including:
1. Growth: Look at NVIDIA’s recent performance in AI chip sales.
2. Profit Margins: Examine how companies like META are improving their profitability.
3. Strategic Actions: Consider new leadership and strategic moves, such as Starbucks' new CEO.
4. Business Transformation: Explore how companies like Netflix and Microsoft are evolving their business models.
5-7. Other Key Factors: See how Apple's shift to services fits into the broader market picture.
Here are some examples of these catalysts:
Growth - Monitor trends like NVIDIA's AI chip sales.
Profit Margins - Track profitability improvements, such as with META.
Strategic Actions - Look out for major corporate strategies, like Starbucks' new CEO.
Business Transformation - Note significant shifts, such as Netflix’s new ad feature or Microsoft’s cloud computing focus.
Additional Catalysts - Keep an eye on other important factors like Apple’s expansion into services.
Don’t forget to jot down this checklist and join us each month for the TradingView Show, where we spotlight community members and cover educational content across equities, AI, crypto, gold, forex, and more.
Compliance and disclaimers:
Important information: tradestation.com/important-information/
Disclosure options: theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document
ETF prospectus page: tradestation.com/insights/etf-disclosures/
GBPUSD WEEKLY ANALYSIS The weakening dollar with the Jackson Hole anticipated affirmation of expectations for an interest rate cut on September and an arguably stronger pound has seen price move to yearly highs tapping into the monthly sibi.
Looking for the price to react from the imbalance and trade a little bit lower so coming week would love to see a sweep on last week's high in the early sessions on Monday ,turtle soup on the 4hr post Asia/London and go short and target past 1.31760 and 1.31110 and probably lower on the nfp.
NB: Will be keeping an eye on the consumer confidence and unemployment claims later during the week.
TILRAY RETRACEMENT A retracement does not imply a change in the trend, but rather a temporary pause or pullback. A retracement does not invalidate the previous trend. It confirms the trend, as the price resumes its original direction after the retracement.
Lower prices are an estimate but do not mean there has to be a retracement. They do reject many times depending on volume.
SUI/USDT Analysis Heading Towards $2.10?Current Price: $0.859
🟢 Key Points:
Fibonacci Retracement: SUI/USDT is currently trading within the "Golden Pocket" between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels, a critical area often associated with strong buying interest.
Price Target: The 2.618 Fibonacci extension suggests a potential target of $2.189, which aligns with recent technical developments.
Latest News Impact: The SUI ecosystem is seeing significant activity, including potential bullish momentum driven by recent developments such as Grayscale's announcement of a new SUI trust fund and notable OTC bids from large investors. These factors have contributed to a positive market sentiment, with SUI potentially poised for a 40% rally in the near term (CoinGape) (TradingView).
🔄 Potential Scenario:
After a strong recovery from recent lows, SUI might push towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ($1.527) and eventually the 2.618 extension ($2.189). The recent price action, bolstered by strategic network upgrades and increased institutional interest, supports this outlook. However, traders should be mindful of potential pullbacks, especially if SUI fails to hold its current support levels (CoinGape) (World Coin Index).
💡 Conclusion:
With recent bullish developments, SUI/USDT shows promising signs of a rally towards $2.10, especially if key resistance levels are broken. Short-term dips could present buying opportunities in light of the ongoing positive market sentiment.
COIN bouncing from the 200MA NASDAQ:COIN is currently bouncing from it 200 MA with plenty of room to push higher on the RSI. Commentary has been picking up significantly and crypto and major corporations and Governments Showing great interest in establishing themselves in the crypto world…..With stocks due for another pullback, and September historically being one of the worst months of the year for stocks, I believe this is perfect timing to establish positions with exposure to cryptocurrency…..Let’s see how this plays out!
Oat Futures break above the daily resistance line *****Oat Futures are breaking above the daily resistance line. 2024-2025 production outlook is up and stronger demand should support a rally at some point this year. This could mark a good entry point for a swing trade through January where it could climb back up to the daily 200ema.
SUI/USDT Analysis Heading Towards $2.10?Current Price: $0.859
🟢 Key Points:
Fibonacci Retracement: SUI/USDT is currently trading within the "Golden Pocket" between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels, a critical area often associated with strong buying interest.
Price Target: The 2.618 Fibonacci extension suggests a potential target of $2.189, which aligns with recent technical developments.
Latest News Impact: The SUI ecosystem is seeing significant activity, including potential bullish momentum driven by recent developments such as Grayscale's announcement of a new SUI trust fund and notable OTC bids from large investors. These factors have contributed to a positive market sentiment, with SUI potentially poised for a 40% rally in the near term (CoinGape) (TradingView).
🔄 Potential Scenario:
After a strong recovery from recent lows, SUI might push towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ($1.527) and eventually the 2.618 extension ($2.189). The recent price action, bolstered by strategic network upgrades and increased institutional interest, supports this outlook. However, traders should be mindful of potential pullbacks, especially if SUI fails to hold its current support levels (CoinGape) (World Coin Index).
💡 Conclusion:
With recent bullish developments, SUI/USDT shows promising signs of a rally towards $2.10, especially if key resistance levels are broken. Short-term dips could present buying opportunities in light of the ongoing positive market sentiment.
Fair Value for S&P 500, Price Targets for the next 12 monthsGoing into next week I calculate fair value for the S&P 500 to be between 5,400 and 4,800 with an average target of 5,100 over the next 12 months. The low end of the range factors in any chance that we see the economy creep to a stagnant point over the next 12 months.
If by some miracle the economy should continue to experience above average GDP growth, the S&P 500 could go as high as 6,300 in the year ahead
Investors should be cautious about making any large stock purchases if we continue to see unemployment rise and GDP growth slow.
Holding off for better buying opportunities is for the best with the S&P 500 above the 5,400 level. The market is likely to continue to see downward pressure. Right now, earnings growth projections are lofty and likely to be revised downward over the next 6 months.
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation (TRX) TRX Gold Corporation is advancing the Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania, which is supported by a substantial mineral resource estimate. As of May 2021, the project has a measured and indicated mineral resource of 35.88 million tonnes at 1.77 grams per tonne gold, amounting to over 2 million ounces of gold, along with an inferred resource of 17.8 million tonnes at 1.11 grams per tonne, containing more than 635,000 ounces of gold. The company’s leadership is dedicated to increasing gold production to generate positive cash flow, which will be reinvested in exploratory drilling to expand the resource base and advance the development of the project, which represents 90% of the current resources.
TRX Gold operates with a strong commitment to environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) principles, as demonstrated by its long-standing relationships and programs in the Geita Region of Tanzania, where it has been active for nearly two decades. The company’s strategy includes balancing near-term shareholder value creation with long-term growth by utilizing the cash flow from increased gold production to fund further exploration and development.
Given the current global economic climate and the steady interest in gold as a stateless currency, TRX Gold's prospects appear solid, particularly as central banks continue to diversify away from fiat currencies like the US dollar. The Tanzanian government's stable policies and the country's rich mineral resources contribute to the project's potential. Despite the company's current challenges, including the need to optimize production and manage costs effectively, the Buckreef Gold Project’s promising resource base and strategic approach could make it an attractive investment for those seeking exposure to the gold sector.
TRX Gold's market capitalization stands at $111.52 million, with a forward P/E ratio of 6.30 and a price-to-book ratio of 2.12. The company's operating margin is 21.40%, and it has no long-term debt, which positions it well for future growth. However, the net income for the latest reporting period shows a loss, indicating that the company is still in a critical growth phase and may face short-term financial challenges.
From a geopolitical perspective, Tanzania has maintained a relatively stable environment for mining operations, supported by the government’s interest in leveraging the country’s natural resources for economic development. This stability, combined with TRX Gold’s focus on sustainable practices and community engagement, suggests that the Buckreef Gold Project could be a key driver of both local and company-wide economic growth in the coming years.
TRX Gold presents a speculative opportunity with the potential for significant returns.
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Keep Calm And Trade BitcoinIt would be relevant and popular to type a scenario called "if" with forecasts to buy, sell and hold in one article. However, I tend to be as objective and useful as possible, because I believe that if we hold and speculate on our popularity, this can continue until the last market maker is left without his commission and lead to a dead line of existentialism. Especially since, while some if buy, others if sell and else if hedge. In general, I do not see the point in two or even three way forecasts for all occasions, so that you can always tell your subscribers: "Look in my feed history! — I told you..." (all the ways). I am convinced that in order to learn, you need to practice confident steps, then you will get irreplaceable experience and the opportunity, if necessary, to earn money without begging. Risk is a noble cause. It is important not to miss the moment here. Either way, you will have to make a choice, otherwise doubt will eat you up. So grab your space spoons and forks and have a hearty meal, the training simulator won't be returning to the ground until lunchtime.
I often observe fatal conclusions (probably from newbies) that if "bitcoin falls" so then it's forever, "it's all over". But what they won't understand is that always goods are bought and sold on the market? Otherwise the market doesn't exist. You simply can't afford to buy-buy-buy all the time, sometimes you have to sell. Otherwise, what's the point of all this? And Bitcoin is not Ethereum! Bitcoin is original blockchain core with limited emission! And look at all chart at least sometimes. Take a break. There are other areas for investment in life. You can buy a new laptop or surfboard, for example. You have to fix your profit from time to time.
Due to outside interference for the last four years, the price looks tired. Sooner or later, an exotic vacation of Bitcoin to at least 28k for a breather is inevitable, and then it returns to its mathematically lawful exponential level of ~100k by the end of next year. If your friends just bought Bitcoin, it does not mean that it will be worth a million next week, and they can sell it on the market and buy it again. Maybe they lack education in this area, help them. Think before you judge. Just free your mind to think differently from time to time.
As much as we would like it, the rocket is not fly into space this year. And the events do not matter for the mathematical regularity of the original blockchain. Yes, there is a tendency for shortages (deficit), but what will you do with Bitcoin if not sell at the real price now and buy it profitably later? Do not stand still, use the market to dream. There is a lot of liquidity in the support zone. The exponential trend is constant, but we will not fly into space at all, because there is nothing to do and under gravity we just build and fill up the supporting silicon mountains for our observatory to look at the stars. The original blockchain is the most stable algorithm for maintaining independence in a secure decentralized unity environment. And it is only a matter of time what the result of the infinity fraction with a limited denominator will be.
We are on the peak of the wave, the next part of Blockchain journey ahead. Now put the record on.
THE WHALES PLOT PATTERNThe BULL PLOTTER reads $56.665.37 regardless of rejection. This is not up for debate. When BITCOIN fell to $49,045, did the trend keep rejecting or did the trend move back up to the BULL PLOTTER?
The engulfing candle pattern was rejected and fell to $49,045. Was this a fakeout?
Look at this pattern, it's like ABC easy to read.
BITCOIN started with Engulfing then 1 bull candle then the same repeat. The third engulfing pattern fakeout met the qualifications for bullish engulfing but was rejected. Could this be a bluff?
In my opinion, it's a WHALES PLOT.
BITCOIN will reverse and ATR with PIPS still read $85K
This pattern was followed back-to-back. I've confirmed my other strategies with smart money movements, BULL SIGNALS, etc.
THE MORE IDEAS THAT READ BEARISH, THE BETTER. IT JUST CONFIRMS BITCOIN IS BULLISH and will be making a strong bullish reversal just like before.
How am I so sure this could be a BAIT TRAP? Look at my custom indicator.
There is much volume yet the herd is saying not enough volume. My volume extractor is supposed to be working against my volume and should be above the green volume wave.
Advanced forecast for BULL and BEARISH trends. Compare extractor with forecast. I can show this to a 10-year-old and will understand this like pre-school
If this was helpful to those who appreciate it, please like this. I'm working hard around the clock due to so much bearishness.
THE WHALES PLOT PATTERNThe BULL PLOTTER reads $56.665.37 regardless of rejection. This is not up for debate. When BITCOIN fell to $49,045, did the trend keep rejecting or did the trend move back up to the BULL PLOTTER?
The engulfing candle pattern was rejected and fell to $49,045. Was this a fakeout?
Look at this pattern, it's like ABC easy to read.
BITCOIN started with Engulfing then 1 bull candle then the same repeat. The third engulfing pattern fakeout met the qualifications for bullish engulfing but was rejected. Could this be a bluff?
In my opinion, it's a WHALES PLOT.
BITCOIN will reverse and ATR with PIPS still read $85K
This pattern was followed back-to-back. I've confirmed my other strategies with smart money movements, BULL SIGNALS, etc.
THE MORE IDEAS THAT READ BEARISH, THE BETTER. IT JUST CONFIRMS BITCOIN IS BULLISH and will be making a strong bullish reversal just like before.
How am I so sure this could be a BAIT TRAP? Look at my custom indicator.
There is much volume yet the herd is saying not enough volume. My volume extractor is supposed to be working against my volume and should be above the green volume wave.
Advanced forecast for BULL and BEARISH trends. Compare extractor with forecast. I can show this to a 10-year-old and will understand this like pre-school
If this was helpful to those who appreciate it, please like this. I'm working hard around the clock due to so much bearishness.
Comvita Monthly Buy ZoneBuying into Comvita
Monthly chart going back decades
Has multiple reasons to buy technically, and is selling far below book value, has low debt to equity and current ratio of 5.54 so assets far outweigh liabilities
Low dividend, but this is really a long term capital gains play say 5 years should be up to at least $5-$6
Take Two | TTWO & GTA VIIs TakeTwo Interactive Software Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2 stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US $9.1b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$27b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$139, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Take-Two Interactive Software as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.071. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Take-Two Interactive Software, we've put together three pertinent items you should explore:
Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Take-Two Interactive Software
Future Earnings: How does TTWO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
long story short
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Take-Two Interactive Software fair value estimate is US$162 and with US$138 share price, Take-Two Interactive Software appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
XRP: SEC vs Ripple Case Closed -(Don't Get Your Hopes Up Though)The 4 Year war is over for the worlds most hated altcoin.
Judge Analysa Torres has ordered Ripple to pay $125 million in civil penalties and cease any further violations of securities laws, concluding the outstretched legal case against Ripple. This penalty is favorable for Ripple, given that the SEC had originally claimed a $2 billion fine.
Considering the XRP army is still fairly strong thanks to paid youtubers and Twitter/X shillers, I'm expecting a short term volatility and wicky price action similar to what happened the previous time Ripple announced an SEC victory.
Noteworthy that XRP has ALREADY gone through a pre-emptive pump, increasing nearly 50% BEFORE the official announcement, likely due to insider trading as is typical with these kinds of things.
The previous 24-hours saw a trading volume of around $1.68 billion, indicating that whales are moving and the biggest action is likely already over. The market capitalization of the altcoin is currently $29.5 billion, which is ridiculous considering there is no actual usecase for the alt after 12 years.
To be completely objective - this COULD change, IF Ripple could come up with an actual usecase for XRP that somehow burns the enormous supply . Unfortunately, up until this point, it has been used by the board members as a liquidity pool to fund their actual company (Ripple). I don't think it would be wise to trust them considering they have shown their true colors and misused the once promising coin as well as the community.
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BINANCE:XRPUSD CRYPTOCAP:XRP