USDZAR Excellent sell signalThe USDZAR pair gave a solid sell signal last time (August 16, see chart below) we made made a call on it, easily hitting the 17.500 Target:
Yet again, the price got rejected near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 8-month Channel Down. A candle closing below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) will confirm the sell signal. If successful, we will short and target Support 1 at 17.03500.
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ZAR
Potential bullish rise?USD/ZAR is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 17.3355
1st Support: 17.1641
1st Resistance: 17.59060
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/ZAR Reaches Key Demand Zone: Are We Set for a Reversal?The USD/ZAR currency pair has reached a significant demand area around the 17.72800 level, presenting a potential opportunity for a long position. This critical zone has caught the attention of traders and market analysts alike, especially those looking for a reversal setup based on market positioning data and technical indicators.
COT Report Insights: A Contrarian Indicator
A deeper dive into the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals intriguing insights into market sentiment for the USD/ZAR pair. The data shows a notable divergence between retail traders and commercials. Currently, retail traders are predominantly short on the USD/ZAR, betting on further declines in the pair. On the other hand, commercials—who often represent larger, more informed institutional players—are also short on the Rand in the Weekly Futures market. This contrarian stance by retail traders and commercials indicates that a significant market move may be on the horizon.
Market Positioning and the Case for a Reversal
The current market positioning suggests a classic oversold condition for the USD/ZAR pair. An oversold market is typically characterized by excessive selling pressure that has pushed prices lower than what underlying fundamentals might justify. This often leads to a potential reversal as market forces balance out and traders begin to cover their short positions.
The convergence of these factors—an oversold technical condition, retail traders being heavily short, and commercials positioning themselves short on the Rand—sets the stage for a possible bullish reversal. Such a scenario could see the USD/ZAR pair rebound from the current demand area and make a move higher, as buying interest emerges to drive the pair up from its current levels.
Technical Analysis Supports Bullish Outlook
From a technical perspective, the 17.72800 demand zone has historically served as a strong support level, where buying pressure has previously emerged. This zone has acted as a magnet for price action, attracting significant buying interest whenever the pair has approached it. The current price action shows signs of stabilization around this key area, further bolstering the case for a bullish reversal.
Additionally, the presence of bullish reversal patterns or signals, such as candlestick formations or momentum indicators turning upward from oversold levels, would add further confirmation to the potential for an upward move. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring the price action for these confirming signals to enter long positions with more confidence.
Conclusion: Preparing for a Bullish Reversal
Given the convergence of factors—COT report insights, oversold conditions, and technical support at the demand zone—the USD/ZAR pair appears primed for a potential bullish reversal. Traders should keep a close watch on upcoming price action and market data for further clues on the timing and strength of this anticipated move. As always, it's essential to manage risk carefully and consider both fundamental and technical aspects when planning trades.
With the USD/ZAR trading near critical levels, a well-timed entry could offer a favorable risk-reward setup for those anticipating a reversal and subsequent upward movement in the pair.
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Bullish bounce?USD/ZAR is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could reverse to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 17.64039
1st Support: 17.47874
1st Resistance: 17.84762
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 50% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 18.03042
1st Support: 17.81615
1st Resistance: 18.17267
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 17.92393
1st Support: 17.67661
1st Resistance: 18.05016
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDZAR Channel Down intact. More selling to come.The USDZAR pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since April and currently is more than half-way through its latest Bearish Leg. Technically it resembles the Bearish Leg of May, which completed a -7.00% decline in the pricing of its Lower Low.
As a result, our short-term Target on this pair is 17.500 which is slightly less than -7.00%, near the Support 2 level.
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Bullish reversal?USD/ZAR is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 17.92416
1st Support: 17.74888
1st Resistance: 18.12955
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish rise?USD/ZAR has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 18.03295
1st Support: 17.94288
1st Resistance: 18.17598
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level.
Pivot: 18.30934
1st Support: 18.12993
1st Resistance: 18.43011
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is reacting off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 18.39589
1st Support: 18.17481
1st Resistance: 18.55218
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish reversal off 50% Fibonacci support?USD/ZAR has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 18.2155
1st Support: 18.1280
1st Resistance: 18.4373
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
#USDZAR Down channel formingUSDZAR has been trading in a defined sideways channel 19,40-17,40 for close to 18 months. Early days, but another down channel looks like it might be forming.
If this is the case, 17,40 could be challenged in coming weeks and a break of the bottom of the the sideways channel at 17,40 could be on the cards.
Bullish bounce?USD/ZAR is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 18.1317
1st Support: 17.9290
1st Resistance: 18.4709
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Heading into overlap resistance, could it reverse from here?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 18.4787
1st Support: 18.1270
1st Resistance: 18.6895
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDZAR Short-term bullish signal but bearish overall.The USDZAR pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the April 09 Low. After pricing the latest Lower Low last week, the price is currently on the new Bullish Leg but got rejected today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Both past Bullish Legs of this pattern rose by +5.30%. On top of that, their 1D RSI sequences are quite similar. As a result, we take advantage of today's rejection and turn bullish, targeting 18.7500 (marginally under an expected +5.30% rise.
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USDZAR Low risk buy signal.The USDZAR pair is trading below both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having formed a Channel Down (blue) since the start of the year. The 1D RSI hit the bottom of its Rectangle, so even though there is some limited downside on the Channel Down before forming a Lower Low, the reward is much higher on the upside.
Assuming a Lower Low at the bottom, we expect another +4.40% rise towards the Lower Highs, thus our Target is at 19.1500.
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USDZAR to 13 rands per dollarBased on the chart, Im seeing nothing else but a sell from here. Weekly has a crazy divergence between the price and the RSI.
A Top was created in February 2016.
Range 19 to 20 rands is a liquidity area. from here if price does not break above 20 rands, then expect more price drops from here.
Based on my TA, from November 2023 till 22 January 2024 we were in a correction cycle to complete wave cycle 2, so from here im expecting a further drop for wave cycle 3 an Impulse down which always comes after correction, then once wave cycle 3 is complete then i will come with an update because we need to also have wave cycle 4 and 5.
So basically this year is gonna be changing for Rands against dollar. Im just here wondering on whats gonna happen with the S.A politics which is gonna lead to rand gaining strength against the dollar, but lets watch and we gonn see. Im just excited for this year man.
USDZAR Double confirmation sell signalThe USDZAR pair is trading above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), on a strong consolidation phase as it approaches the end of an 8-month Triangle. Having been rejected last week very close to not only the Triangle's top but also the (dotted) Channel Up top (Lower Highs trend-line), we have a strong short-term sell signal in our hands. Our Target is Support 1 at 18.555.
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USDZAR: Long term Channel Up preparing the final rally.USDZAR is trading around the 1D MA50 on neutral technicals (RSI = 45.374, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 21.007) but on a long term Channel Up for the past 2 years. This current consolidation has been the accumulation period in the two bullish legs prior before the final rally to a Higher High. This is our buy entry and we aim at the top of the Channel (TP = 21.000).
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USDZAR One last High before this 3-month rally is exhausted.The USDZAR pair made a 4-month High last week, extending the 3-month rally since the Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern on July 27. With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting, based on the previous Higher High, the price has one last run to make before getting exhausted. Our target is the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 20.2500.
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