Should traders be watching Inflation data this week? Definitely!Inflation data from outside the US should pique traders interest this week. Several major economies will be reporting on actual inflation figures experienced during September 2021.
Will they match their forecasted values, or will the data follow US inflation and surprisingly creep upward?
Who should be watching the inflation data?
Traders of the Great British Pound, South African Rand, Euro, Canadian Dollar, and the Japanese Yen should circle these dates in their economic calendars.
Why does the Inflation data deserve special attention this week?
While inflation data is usually closely watched, the surprising inflation figures released in the US last week means traders should be extra vigilant with their inflation watching.
Last week, the US inflation rate (September, YoY) surprised the market by beating expectations. Inflation in the US was expected to report at 5.3%, level with the rate reported in August. However, the actual figure arrived ten basis points higher (5.4%) and returned inflation to the 13-year high seen a month earlier in July 2021.
As it stands, Trading Economics is forecasting inflation in the US inflation rate (October, YoY) to rise another ten basis points to 5.5%. If inflation were to cross 5.6%, a new 30-year record would stand (US inflation Jan, YoY, 1991 was 5.7%).
Calendar Dates to Circle:
United Kingdom, GBP,
Inflation Rate YoY September
Wednesday, 7:00 pm (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: 3.2%
South Africa, ZAR,
Inflation Rate YoY September
Wednesday, 9:00 pm (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: 4.9%
European Union, EUR,
Inflation Rate YoY September
Wednesday, 10:00 pm (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: 3.0%
Canada, CAD,
Inflation Rate YoY September
Thursday, 1:30 am (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: 4.1%
Japan, JPY,
Inflation Rate YoY September
Friday, 12:30 pm (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: -0.4%
ZAR
Potential Fib Retracement on AMSJSE:AMS has been trading in a downward trend since March this year. For basically the whole month of July, it made a retracement all the way up to the 61.8 Fib level. It then went down again to form lower lows. It is currently bouncing off a very strong support level and is looking like it will make a retracement again before continuing downwards. My prediction is that it might go up to the resistance level which coincides with the 50/61.8 Fib level. Let's see what happens.
ABSA downward move potentiallyJSE:ABG formed a bearish harami on the 4th of October which is a top reversal signal. This week, the momentum has been confirmed by the crossing downwards of the stochastic. The MACD and the EMAs look like they are on the verge of crossing down too which will be a further confirmation of the downward move.
Strong breakout on Sun InternationalJSE:SUI has made a strong upward move in the last two days. It is up over 11% in just today's price action. Currently it is trading at a strong trendline. It could either bounce off and make it's way down before turning up again, but if it breaks through, I think we can potentially see an extended upward move.
EXXARO - Upward channel with a Bullish HaramiJSE:EXX has been trading in an upward channel since the big gap that was formed towards the end of April. It reached the bottom of the channel and formed a bullish harami pattern as it reached the support level. This candle pattern is a strong bottom reversal pattern and could be a sign of a reversal. This, coupled with the bottom of the channel could mean we could see a move towards the top of the channel again.
Hammer Harami on VODJSE:VOD formed a hammer candle on the 13th of September which also happens to form part of a bullish harami pattern. Both are strong bullish signals. I think we could see a move up to at least the previous high at around 14500. If it breaks through this level and confirms we could see a continuation to form even higher highs.
Double Bottom forming on NaspersJSE:NPN has formed what could turn into a double bottom pattern. It formed a bottom on the 23rd of August and then again on the 15th of September. If it breaks through the high formed on the 7th of September, the pattern will be confirmed and then I think we could see a move up towards the resistance level at around 300000. A long with the current move, it is also showing signs of upward momentum based on the position of the stochastic and the MACD. I will wait for confirmation before entering, though.
Double Top forming on NedbankAlthough not confirmed yet, JSE:NED seems to be forming a double top pattern.
Here is the definition of a double top from investopedia: A double top is an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern that forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs. It is confirmed once the asset's price falls below a support level equal to the low between the two prior highs.
Although it still has quite a distance to go, if it continues down and breaks through the "neckline" I think we could see a nice downward move all the way to the support level at around 15250. I will be waiting for confirmation before entering.
BIDVEST - Upward Channel with Upward MomentumJSE:BVT has been trading in a nice upward channel since November last year. It is currently trading just below the middle of the channel and seems to be on its way up. It is also showing some good signs of upward momentum based on the stochastic, MACD and the two EMAs that are crossing based on today's price action so far. If the momentum continues, I think we could see a move up to the top of the channel which also coincides with the strong resistance level at around the 22000 level.
MCG on the up?JSE:MCG is showing signs of great upward momentum. The stochastic and MACD indicators turned up last week and the two EMA's crossed in an upward direction yesterday as the final trigger for a long trade. We could see a love up towards the 12500 resistance level, and if it breaks through that level, we could potentially see it going all the way towards the previous highs at around the 14000 level.
WHL - Downward MomentumJSE:WHL has ticked all of the "indicator boxes" to signal a short trade. The EMA's crossed on Friday last week which was the final trigger sign along with the Stochastic and the MACD crossing downwards a few days earlier.
Today, so far, the price seems to be slightly up, but if it breaks through the lows formed on Friday, I will enter a short position.
ABSA - Bearish Engulfing off of Ascending ResistanceJSE:ABG formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on 1 September which is a top reversal signal. What makes the signal stronger is the fact that it it coincides with the resistance level from the current longer term up-trend.
The MACD, Stochastic and now the EMA's are also showing signs of downward momentum. I think we could possibly be looking at a move down towards the 13500 area before turning back up again.