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ZAR

What to do with the rand?? for a South African citizen, global assets are essential given the fact that the South African market only constitutes around 1% of the global market whilst the South African economy constitutes 0.4% of the global economy. Simply put, South African need exposure to assets which are susceptible to short term movements in the Rand. The chart shows the ZAR/USD exchange rate in blue and the local financial index in orange. For the most part they tend to have a negative correlation. In other words, if the rand strengthens, South African financials tend to do well and vice versa. We can see that the long-term trend for the rand is towards a weakening bias. In the short to medium term, movements in the rand impact the ability to show South African investors a good return on foreign assets. in other words the currency factor increases volatility for a Rand investor or at least someone who spends their money in Rands (retired investors). South African financial are showing cheap valuations which discount the financial turmoil that South African consumers are facing. Therefore there's a low base effect which needs to be factored in (possible repricing of the shares). On the other hand SA financials are also discounting the fact that there ability to grow their earnings is perhaps less than desirable. Select financials are likely to be better performers based on the merits of their business however, from an overall financial wellness perspective, the index is not all that attractive over a 12-18 month period. The question is, will this help support a bottom range for the Rand at around R14 to the USD? If so, the risk of an extreme strengthening event hitting the rand is probably closer to 20% - 25%. Does this potentially support the fact that the rand should be weaker in the next 12 - 18 months? The clear and obvious unknown to this scenario is that if the commodity cycle continues and indeed accelerates, South Africa's income statement and balance sheet become marginally healthier and therefore could result in a re-rating in the Rand and local financials. Its important to understand that it not about trading the rand but rather trying to quantify its downside risk from a Rand investor looking to offshore assets. If one was able to close their eyes and forget the volatility in the currency, well then problem solved however, investor behaviour doesn't allow for that... Please like and follow. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
by JesseMorgans
4
USDZAR - Long Term Lookout ForexHi Everyone Been a while since I've posted on my account here! I felt like doing something different today (other than crypto) after someone asked me about USDZAR / Forex. Even if you're not into this specific trading pair, watch the video anyway, I mention some really interesting points that you can apply to your other chart pairs like fib time zones etc. The Fractal / Wyckoff Method: The Fractal demonstrating effectiveness of Fibonacci for time zones: The new fractal and accompanying Fibonacci time zone: Watch for 3 price targets before Feb 2022. Let me know your thoughts below, BlockTechEv
by BlockTechEv
4
EURZAR on a channel break 🦐EURZAR on the 4h chart created a triple top below a weekly resistance. The price is currently testing the ascending channel trendline over a daily support and according to Plancton0's strategy if the market will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
12
USD/ZAR:PRICE ACTION+FIBO ANALISYS|DOWNTREND|SHORT SETUP🔔The forecast for the USD/ZAR turned bearish after this currency pair lost upside momentum. Traders should expect a rise in volatility as bulls and bears wrestle for control. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links in Description and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page and Ideas by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Bullish Flag on Purple GroupJSE:PPE had a nice upward rally at the beginning of June followed by a slightly downward consolidation period. Because of these moves, we have seen the formation of a bullish flag pattern. A bullish flag is a continuation pattern, therefore the expectation is that the price will continue upwards once the breakout has happened. So far this morning a breakout has occurred, but I may be inclined to wait until Monday before entering a long position. If you take the length of the "flagpole" into account the target for this trade should be around 190.
JSE:PPELong
by RossLarter
GBP/ZAR:SWING FIBO RETRACEMENT UPTREND|LONG SETUP 🔔The forecast for the GBP/ZAR remains bullish after this currency pair finished a minor correction. Can bulls take advantage of upside pressures and force the GBP/ZAR into its next horizontal resistance area? Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Long
by FOREXN1
7