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ZAR

Heading into overlap resistance, could it reverse from here?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 18.4787 1st Support: 18.1270 1st Resistance: 18.6895 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USDZAR Short-term bullish signal but bearish overall.The USDZAR pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the April 09 Low. After pricing the latest Lower Low last week, the price is currently on the new Bullish Leg but got rejected today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Both past Bullish Legs of this pattern rose by +5.30%. On top of that, their 1D RSI sequences are quite similar. As a result, we take advantage of today's rejection and turn bullish, targeting 18.7500 (marginally under an expected +5.30% rise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDZAR Low risk buy signal.The USDZAR pair is trading below both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having formed a Channel Down (blue) since the start of the year. The 1D RSI hit the bottom of its Rectangle, so even though there is some limited downside on the Channel Down before forming a Lower Low, the reward is much higher on the upside. Assuming a Lower Low at the bottom, we expect another +4.40% rise towards the Lower Highs, thus our Target is at 19.1500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
USDZAR to 13 rands per dollarBased on the chart, Im seeing nothing else but a sell from here. Weekly has a crazy divergence between the price and the RSI. A Top was created in February 2016. Range 19 to 20 rands is a liquidity area. from here if price does not break above 20 rands, then expect more price drops from here. Based on my TA, from November 2023 till 22 January 2024 we were in a correction cycle to complete wave cycle 2, so from here im expecting a further drop for wave cycle 3 an Impulse down which always comes after correction, then once wave cycle 3 is complete then i will come with an update because we need to also have wave cycle 4 and 5. So basically this year is gonna be changing for Rands against dollar. Im just here wondering on whats gonna happen with the S.A politics which is gonna lead to rand gaining strength against the dollar, but lets watch and we gonn see. Im just excited for this year man.
Short
by Theofylrx
12
USDZAR Double confirmation sell signalThe USDZAR pair is trading above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), on a strong consolidation phase as it approaches the end of an 8-month Triangle. Having been rejected last week very close to not only the Triangle's top but also the (dotted) Channel Up top (Lower Highs trend-line), we have a strong short-term sell signal in our hands. Our Target is Support 1 at 18.555. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
USDZAR: Long term Channel Up preparing the final rally.USDZAR is trading around the 1D MA50 on neutral technicals (RSI = 45.374, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 21.007) but on a long term Channel Up for the past 2 years. This current consolidation has been the accumulation period in the two bullish legs prior before the final rally to a Higher High. This is our buy entry and we aim at the top of the Channel (TP = 21.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
USDZAR One last High before this 3-month rally is exhausted.The USDZAR pair made a 4-month High last week, extending the 3-month rally since the Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern on July 27. With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting, based on the previous Higher High, the price has one last run to make before getting exhausted. Our target is the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 20.2500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDZAR | Weekly | UpdateLooking at USDZAR on our weekly chart we can notice that USDZAR has been failing to break to the downside as has been respecting our previously outlined levels. To elaborate further we can take note of the fact that USDZAR’s failure to break through our 17.50xxx Psychological level confirmed a new higher low on the pair after which it started rallying back up and is now trading above our 19.0xxxx price point; we can also take note of the fact that after USDZAR failed to break our 17.50xxx level creating a new higher low it gave us the opportunity to identify the formation of that bullish channel within our already existing long term bullish trend. Now looking to the right on USDZAR we can notice the possibility of it creating a new all time high between our 20.50xxx and 21.50xxx respective levels and considering the current economic climate in South Africa and the upcoming elections causing further instability in the ZAR so we could possibly see the USDZAR head towards these levels as we head into 2024.
Long
by mosa_moshka
3
South African rand in trouble - Next target R21 :(Inv H&S has formed on the USD/ZAR since 6 June 2023. The price has recently broken above the neckine, showing the US dollar is poised for upside. The DIXIE (US Dollar Index) is also showing upside to come. 7>21>200 and confirms the US dollar is going up. RSI>50 - Bullish First target is R21.00 ABOUT THE DIXIE: HOW IT’S CALCULATED The USDX is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is based on the exchange rates of six major currencies: the euro (EUR) – Accounts for 57.6% - ,Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona ( SEK ), and Swiss franc (CHF) .
Long
by Timonrosso
EUR/ZAR showing strong upside to come - OUCH!This analysis hurts my pocket. Travelling around and living in Europe means we pay in Euros. Hotels, flights, costs, etc... And I unpleasantly am doing an analysis showing how the Euro looks like more upside is to come. It's this kind of analysis I really hope I am 100% wrong. Anyway, upside is to come bease on the Reverse Cup and Handle. The price bounced on the 200MA and said, nope we are going up. Let's go euros! And now, it looks like the next target is to a gloomy R22.44
Long
by Timonrosso
3Q2023 USDZAR weekly timeframeBack in January I predicted that the USDZAR pair will climb to the 2020 high of 19.35 if the rand fails to hold the pair below the critical support rate of 16.80. We’ve seen this move play out, and then some, which saw the rand slide to an all-time low of 19.90 this week as the pair completed its 5th major impulse wave. Now it’s time to look at what lies ahead for 2H2023. The critical rate to watch is at 18.66, the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement rate… Based purely off the Elliot wave theory I predict that the pair will fall into an ABC corrective pattern in 3Q2023, similar to the corrective pattern we saw in the 4Q2022. The first support range (S1) for the pair sits between 19.15 and 19.35 (the blue 23.6% Fibo retracement rate and the 2020 high). A break below this range will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 18.66. A move into support range 2 (S2) will complete wave A of the ABC corrective pattern. Support range 2 coincides with the bottom of the blue upward channel that the pair is currently trading in as well as the top of the previous third impulse wave. I don’t see the rand gaining enough momentum to pull the pair below support range 2 at this stage. Thereafter, the pair will retest S1 as it flips from a support to a resistance and the ABC corrective pattern will be complete after the pair falls back onto the critical support rate of 18.66. A break below 18.66 in the 4Q2023 will allow the rand to pull the pair out of the current upward black parallel channel and into support range 3 (the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate at 17.92 and the bottom of the ABC corrective wave at 17.67) which coincides with the 50-week MA currently at 17.64. This scenario is the best-case scenario for the rand in my opinion. For the rand to pull the pair below S3 we would need to see another strong bull market in the commodity cycle. Conversely, if the critical support at 18.66 holds its ground the pair will remain in the upward black channel which will send the pair higher in the 20.00’s. Weekly technical indicators: The weekly RSI suggests that the rand is heavily oversold at the moment which will allow the rand some breathing room, on paper. The weekly MACD is still holding a strong buy signal, but it is showing signs of fizzling out and rolling over. Overall, the technical indicators are supportive of a rand pullback into S1 and possibly deeper into S2. We have to wait to see how the market digests the NFP’s print later today but as it stands the pair could generate a hammer candle which will indicate the top of the current wave, which is also supportive of some relief for the battered rand. Fundamental factors: The fundamental factors are unfortunately stacked against the rand. I’ll start with the factors I deem as rand positive. Rand positive: • For those familiar with my USDZAR ideas, I always look at the price of precious metals, particularly platinum as SA is the world’s largest platinum producer by a country mile (I’ll do a separate idea on platinum and link the idea in the comments). The platinum price topped out around $1130/ounce this year in April and has fallen roughly 12% since then. The metal is however finding support around the $1000/ounce level which is positive for the rand and platinum. The price of platinum looks set to remain supported by the fact that the platinum market is expected to remain in a substantial deficit this year, largely due to the sanctions imposed on Russia and SA’s mining production constraints largely caused by the current electricity uncertainties. (www.reuters.com) • Regarding the liquidity landscape and US monetary policy, it seems as if global financial conditions are easing, and excess liquidity is rising, which will allow the rand to hopefully attract some foreign fiat given the rand’s carry trade appeal. Short-term rates seem to be peaking not just in the US but globally. Once global rates have peaked, it will allow the market to price in a future cyclical upturn for the US economy. Longer-term yields will capture this sentiment by moving higher as investors will prefer riskier assets (such as the rand and SA bonds) to reap the rewards on buoyant liquidity conditions. The US debt ceiling debacle will also be resolved soon which will bring investors at ease that more fresh liquidity will hit the markets. Rand negative: • The rand negative factors are largely due to the ongoing geopolitical factors, but before we get into that I’d just like to touch on SA’s trade balance. Earlier this week SA’s latest trade balance results were released, and the trade surplus is fizzling out. The last three trade balance totals were R10.71 billion, R6.30 billion and the latest balance stands at R3.54 billion. This decline in SA’s trade surplus is rand negative. • In terms of the geopolitical landscape and SA’s electricity uncertainties things aren’t looking pretty for the rand. The SARB’s Financial Stability Report from May 2023 did not make for pretty reading. The major idiosyncratic risk, which is still fresh to market participants, is the deterioration of SA’s diplomatic relations with the US following the comments by the US Ambassador to SA on 11 May 2023. Despite the claims being baseless, SA’s non-alignment stance in the conflict in Ukraine is hugely rand negative. The SARB highlighted the risk of secondary sanctions which could be imposed on SA due to the neutral stance. US Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, also explicitly warned SA when she visited back in January this year, to take the sanctions imposed on Russia seriously. Coupled with the Financial Action Task Force grey listing of SA financial institutions in February this year the potential implications for the SA economy are severe. If secondary sanctions are imposed on SA, it will make it impossible to finance any trade or investment flows, or to make or receive any payments from correspondent banks in US dollars. Furthermore, more than 90% of SA’s international payments, in whichever currency, are currently processed through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) international payment system. Should SA be banned from SWIFT because of secondary sanctions, these payments will not be possible. • Additionally, the SARB highlighted SA’s electricity uncertainty and deteriorating rail and port infrastructure. In connection with the declining infrastructure is the amount of State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) debt relative to SA’s emerging market peers. SA has one of the highest SOE debt among emerging market currencies and as the government takes over the SOE debt the local tax payer and bond investor will have to foot the bill. • The above-mentioned factors have led to a mass exodus of funds out of SA and as mentioned earlier, local investors will have to absorb the sell-off from foreign investors. The proportion of SA Government bonds held by foreign investors has declined from 42% in April 2018 to 25% in February2023. If you got to here, I highly appreciate you taking the time to read and review my idea <3. I’ll update this idea as 3Q2023 progresses.
by Goose96
3
USD/ZAR pre SA GDP printThe rand has now posted convincing gains in the past three sessions off the back of an increase in global investor risk appetite following a strong US NFP’s print on Friday and the conclusion of the US debt ceiling debacle. An ABC corrective pattern seems to be the most likely move for the pair at the moment as per my previous idea linked below. The rand has managed to pull the pair into the first support range (S1 on the chart) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is now firmly in the rand’s crosshairs. A break below S1 will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the psychological rate of 19.00. The rate at 19.00 is will probably show some strength but I expect the rand to pull the pair lower onto the 50-day MA rate of 18.64 which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the bottom of the current upward channel. Looking at the fundamentals there is not much supporting the rand but the expected increase in debt issuance from the US following the raising of the debt ceiling will allow risk assets such as the rand to soak up some fresh dollar bills. The 1Q2023 South African GDP results will be released tomorrow and expectations are for a year-on-year 2.2% growth print, up from the disappointing results of 0.9% in the 4Q2022. A print in line or higher than expectations will boost the heavily oversold rand, but we’ll have to wait and see how the SA economy fared given the low electricity supply in the 1H2023. In terms of the technical indicators, there is a cross over sell signal on the daily MACD and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to drop before hitting oversold levels.
Short
by Goose96