ZAR
BRICS currencies movement for the week – 16 October 2020A strong week for the US Dollar, with most Emerging Market currencies coming under pressure. Also look at my US Dollar Index Idea here:
Despite the USD strength, the ZAR remained resilient, having some of the best relative BRICS currency performance for the week.
BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -1.9%
Russia -1.1%
India -0.6%
China 0.0%
South Africa -0.5%
Euro /USD -1.7%
Technically, the ZAR broke and close the week off below all four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which over the shorter-term, might provide some further momentum in the ZAR.
If this was a false break and we see the ZAR break and stay above the 200-day EMA (at R16.61) this week, we could see it move back to the 50-day EMA at R16.76. A break and close above this level could see the USDZAR test the diagonal resistance level at R16.85, with a break and close above this level, most probably bringing R17.10 back into play. With the runup to the US Elections, this (USD Strength) in my view can only happen if the momentum swings back from Biden to Trump, which at this stage seems highly unlikely.
The 14-day RSI is not in oversold territory yet, which will have me optimistic should the USDZAR break and close below R16.50 early this coming week. Momentum is turning and very much moving back into the favour of the Rand, which tend to make me believe that we might just be testing the R16.10 levels again over the shorter-term. Watch the US Dollar Index early this week. Should you be contemplating any short-term long positions in the ZAR (short USDZAR), I would only look at doing so below 93.20 on the Index.
SHP breaking trendJSE:SHP has been in a downward trend since mid September. It broke through the resistance level on the 9th of October and it went back down to test the level as support. If it breaks the high of the 13th of October, I will consider a long position up to the previous high of the top of the trend.
Mediclinic - Bounce off top of ChannelJSE:MEI has been trading in a sideways consolidation channel since mid-March (COVID-19 lockdown) and has reached the top of the channel. A bearish engulfing candle pattern formed yesterday which is a bearish reversal signal. If it breaks through the current small support that it is trading at, I will consider going short all the way towards the bottom of the channel.
Possible short on CAPITECJSE:CPI formed a dark cloud cover candle pattern a few days back which is a possible reversal signal. The MACD and the Stochastic both seem to be on their way down as well which could serve as confirmation for a downward move. I will wait for it to break the previous support level and then consider a short position.
Triangle Breakout on BID CorporationJSE:BID has broken through the bottom of a triangle pattern with today's price action so far. If it continues downwards and confirms through the previous lows of around 24500 I will consider a short position. Once broken through, it might find some support around the 21500 level, but could also move all the way down to the 18000 level.
Old Mutual overviewThe share price is currently heading towards the major descending trend line and previous support from a well-structured double-bottom pattern.
For the more risk-aware investors, I'd advise you to place an alert around the 1280 level and await crossing confirmation.
I will also update this idea upon finding more useful/reliable fundamentals.
Goodluck and follow me for more.
SOUTH AFRICAN RAND STRUCTURE ANALYSIS|
USD_ZAR IS TRADING IN A FLAG/TRIANGLE
FUTHER MOVEMENT WITHIN THE TRIANGLE IS EXPECTED UNTILL THE BREAKOUT
Given that I am bullish on the Dollar and considering the situation in South Africa,
I expect the breakout upwards, as when the Dollar strengthens properly,
the weakest currencies fall first and faster than others.
And Rand is super weak.
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USDZAR ANALYSISUSDZAR is in downtrend
Price broke neckline of double top pattern at level 16.8078 with strong bearish movement
Price is based below HVN at level 16.6595 which indicates pair is in distribution phase
Below SMA 100
MACD shows weakness in bullish momentum
RSI is below level 50
It's expected going down towards support level at 16.4025 as classical target from double top pattern
then finally target demand zone at level 16.0900
Two buy opportunities on this chart for USDZARMid-Term Forecast:
Trading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (16.545). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. USDZAR is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 53.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 17.2610
TP2= @ 17.7630
TP3= @ 18.6940
TP4= @ 19.3420
TP5= @ 21.4450
SL= Break below S3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short-Term Forecast:
Trading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (16.784). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. USDZAR is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 55.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 17.2610
TP2= @ 17.5260
TP3= @ 17.7655
TP4= @ 18.1270
TP5= @ 18.6915
SL= Break below S3
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Two buy opportunities on this chart for USDZARMid-Term Forecast:
Trading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (16.545). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. USDZAR is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 53.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 17.2610
TP2= @ 17.7630
TP3= @ 18.6940
TP4= @ 19.3420
TP5= @ 21.4450
SL= Break below S3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short-Term Forecast:
Trading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (16.784). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. USDZAR is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 55.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 17.2610
TP2= @ 17.5260
TP3= @ 17.7655
TP4= @ 18.1270
TP5= @ 18.6915
SL= Break below S3
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader ?
Now, It's your turn !
Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️