USDZAR BUY | SMALL RISK HUGE REWARD | INSTITUTIONAL**Risk-to-Reward** 1:15
Buy USDZAR @ 16.71524
Stop Loss: 16.66264
Take Profit: 17.50500
Use the Risk-to-Reward Visual Trade Levels For Risk Free Trading
***I personally am trading a 100k account so I focus on 10 total Pairs excluding Crypto daily, risking .25% per trade position aiming for anywhere from 1%-3% gain.***
I am an institutional style trader and I go with the order flow of the market noticing price action more than anything and technicals are always last because throughout my 7+ year trading career I learned many styles and lost a lot of money chasing profits instead of understanding the psychology of trading and emotional intelligence it takes to not trade, but to make consistent profits and not risk my own hard earned money. Hope you take the advice and follow my trade ideas for more I cant post everything but my will be posting them on various platforms for before and afters.
***Correlates With USDZAR***
ZAR
USDZAR, The Cup and Handle Pattern CompletedUSD broke above the upper boundary of the cup and handle pattern on the USDZAR chart.
We can long the pair with the target that is equal to the pattern's height.
Stop-loss should be below today's lowest point.
USDZAR Pull-back or break-out buyThe USDZAR pair has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel since June 07 2021, with one break-out to the 1.382 extension. At the moment it is supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break a Lower Highs trend-line. A closing above it should be enough to test the Resistance Zone. Only a break above the 1.0 Fib can justify further buying as a break-out signal to the 1.382 Fib extension again. Until then, it is safer to wait for a pull-back, which is common for these Lower Highs (dashed line) patterns within the Channel. Either above the 0.786 retracement level or near the bottom of the Channel.
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USD/ZAR LongUSD/ZAR pair has been moving bullish over the last few weeks. Looking at the daily time frame. It is now consolidating in a bull flag right in the middle of the channel at resistance after retracing to the 0.618 fib level. With a good breakout of the bull flag resistance should be broken and become support.
I am looking to enter upon the break out and close above BOTH the flag and the 16.1148 resistance level. Doing this would make it highly probable to complete its move to the top of the channel which is the 0.618 fib extension at just over 17.500.
Is the South African Rand forging its own path against the USD?The exotic pair of the U.S. Dollar to South African Rand (USD/ZAR) has not correlated strongly with other USD pairs since this year.
In fact, the USD is down 1.3% against the ZAR since the beginning of the year, all the while, the USD index has been super bullish, up 6.1% YTD.
While performing better than the GBP, EUR, and other major partners, the USD is still trading just under last November’s high. With the seasonal tendency of the USD to weaken over the Northern hemisphere’s summer months in combination with the strong trend-bucking Rand, Is it looking unlikely that the USD will take out those highs over the coming months?
A main reason for the ZAR’s strength is the interest rate hikes emanating from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Just last Thursday the SARB raised rates to 4.75% with a 50 basis point hike, which is the highest single increase South Africa has seen since 2016. It appears that the announcement was already priced in to the USDZAR since there was little volatility that followed. Several more aggressive rate hikes are expected from the SARB with at least another 50 basis point rise over 2022, and 100 basis points over 2023.
USDZAR technical perspective
On the charts, we can see the pair is floating just below the high created in November 2021. Just this month we've seen a new range created, to which the Fibonacci tool is anchored. There is also an Elder's Force Index (EFI) indicator on the bottom window. This indicator is concerned with the previous day’s opening and closing prices in relation to volume. Overbought and oversold conditions can be ascertained when the indicator moves above or below the zero line.
At the time of this writing, the USDZAR is sitting above on the 78.6% retracement level, with the EFI below the zero line. If the price is going to take out last November’s high, then we will need to see a sustained support at this level. Ever the contrarian, the USDZAR may disregard the oversold EFI confluence and continue on its path below the 78.6% level..