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What is happening in interest rates market? ExplainedI got a few questions about interest rates this week. Well, I don’t understand why people are waiting for some disaster in this market. Commercials are selling 10-year Nonets and buying 30 year Bonds. That means smart money expects that short-term rates are going to go down and long-term rates are going to stay where they are. This is a bullish yield curve development and a normal market. However, it doesn’t mean a huge rally is about to start in Bond market. It will take time. Short-term rally? – Well, possibly if on Monday we get above Friday’s high. But be realistic about your potential targets.
CBOT:ZB1!
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
Bond Pong. Like Beer Pong With Less BloatingMost retail futures traders hang out in the stock indices, metals, or energy primarily. This makes sense as those markets move on a daily basis. But tonight, we'd like to make a case for looking at interest rates products, specifically the 30Y bond. As volatility picks up, the bonds haven't really kept pace and instead have stayed within defined ranges, making for a good case for some back-and-forth action. For the past several weeks, a well defined channel in the 30Y Bond (ZBZ2020) has formed with a one point range between 176 and 177. We're buyers at the bottom of the channel at 176 and sellers and the top at 177. It's a game of pong. What's constructive about this chart is that we have bumpers on either side of the channel in the form of a bid zone at 175 and an offer zone at 178. So we can scalp the channel and then look to add on a break or stop and wait for the level. Our current position (CurPos) is flat as price is in the middle of the channel. We'll update this idea on our next entry. Note: the ZN chart (10Y Note) looks similar and is 1/2 the size roughly on a per-tick-basis.
CBOT:ZBZ2020
by TDGonTView
SPX & Bond RelationshipThe relationship between equity markets and bonds is typically one of duality. As stock markets rise, bonds typically fall when investors have more confidence in the equities market and feel they will achieve a better return. They mirror one another - normally . The S & P is a few percent away from all-time highs yet the bond market (which is larger) is higher than the bottom of the crash back in March. Ok that’s interesting. Equities markets have been rising as well as the bond market - in parallel, so the mirror is now distorted. If you notice the white arrow you will see that the bond market gave hints something was up back February before the S&P lost more than 1200 points - smart money knew. Price is compressing and we have overhead resistance – as noted by others authors, as well as divergence shown on the indicator. Looking closer in last week or so equities markets have plateaued yet bonds keep rising. What’s all of this mean? If bonds are correct, the market is in for a correction. When the market hit the low in March it was at point of control going back 10 ten years – that’s where it stopped at $2160. Where is market heading perhaps to the most traded price since 2016 election $2725. Sounds like an idea for another chart. TVC:SPX
TVC:SPXShort
by Maximilianned
The Moment of Truth - US Dollar The Fed has the markets back - as seen in the equities market. Euro/Pound are screaming higher, because the news is better there - with that said Fed has been adding liquidity to the system but so has the ECB -$1.52 trillion in stimulus. Bond Market is saying hey equities no so fast - and to be clear the US Bond market is bigger! Interesting inflection point - this is the moment of truth, for US Dollar, equities, bonds and gold too. Grab you popcorn and enjoy the show. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXY
by Maximilianned
August 16 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Balance Area; Russell $1,600 Supply Area; Stronger Selling; Buyer’s Non-Committal; Market Still In Uptrend. Technical: Broad-market equity indices digested prior advances, evidenced by the non-separation of value. Recapping last week’s action, Monday's higher open on pandemic relief efforts coming from the White House was erased on a liquidation to Friday’s range. Buyers later responded, establishing a v-bottom before resolving the contract adjusted all-time-high, overnight. After investors shrugged off news of simmering geopolitical tensions, Tuesday’s U.S. session gave back all advances, liquidating enough to repair the poor structure below $3,330. Alongside news of resilient fuel demand, relative strength shifted to the Nasdaq Wednesday, with equity indices squeezing shorts and erasing the low-volume area left behind Tuesday’s liquidation. Thursday’s overnight activity caught up to Wednesday’s divergent delta, drifting lower alongside uninspiring political news. During the U.S. session, the S&P managed to pop higher, to and through the resting liquidity at the $3,375 area, before testing lower and closing in-range, neutral. The session’s narrative carried forward with Friday’s session ending the week in-balance and range. In light of dull participation, the risks of a pullback have increased. Buyers lack the conviction to follow-through and sellers are beginning to step up on the liquidations that get rid of those weak buyers. The Russell 2000 closed the week off lower after coming to the $1,600 supply area. The Nasdaq, despite regaining relative strength, failed to make a new high, balancing out into week-end. To see a positive change in tone, there needs to be separation of value beyond the all-time-high. Until then, the potential exists for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the emotional, momentum-driven participants. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: NY Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index; Building Permits; Housing Starts; Initial Claims; Philly Fed Business Index; Leading Index; PMI; Existing Home Sales. Fundamental: Senate leaves until September without coronavirus relief deal. bit.ly Coronavirus vaccine won’t become widely available to Americans until 2021. bit.ly U.S. retail sales slow in July; obstacles mount for nascent economic recovery. reut.rs Judge rejects a General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) case against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU). reut.rs Fortnite maker sues Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). cnn.it United States petroleum inventories show a gradual rebalancing. reut.rs Economy not enjoying a V-shape recovery, but is instead on the verge of a W-shape. bit.ly Trump’s executive orders to shore up the economy will not be sufficient. bit.ly ARK Invest CEO and CIO recaps recovery, reasons optimistic perspective. bit.ly JOLTS shows far fewer jobs added in than the department's NFP report. bit.ly Market avoids the Great Recession’s calamities, but economy struggling. bit.ly Credit quality worsened again as the effects of the pandemic continued to weight. bit.ly Trading volumes remain elevated, even as volatility returns to more normal levels. bit.ly Post-election regime should stimulate growth through capital friendly policies. bit.ly New York’s statewide positive test rate has remained at 1% for two months. bit.ly The new economy stocks drive markets, but recovery won’t be v-shaped. bit.ly The budget deal changes the way financial markets look at the eurozone. bit.ly Producer prices rose by the most since October 2018, following June decline. bit.ly Weak revenue environment will lead to fiscal austerity and higher leverage. bit.ly American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) in talks with Kabbage over acquisition. bit.ly Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) relaunches Twitch Prime as Prime Gaming. tcrn.ch Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces 5-for-1 stock split on August 31. bit.ly Saudi Aramco sees a recovery in global oil demand, justifying export prices. reut.rs COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system. bit.ly General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) jumps ship to join startup Stripe. reut.rs Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to produce 1B vaccines by next year. reut.rs Court reverses antitrust ruling against Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM). reut.rs Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) curbs ads by U.S. news publishers with political ties. reut.rs Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) to cut debt before boosting output. reut.rs Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX cancellations rise, deliveries drop as crises drags on. reut.rs U.S.-China trade deal in fine shape, White House’s Kudlow says. reut.rs Gold has had its worst day in 7 years, but investors remain bullish. bit.ly The U.S. already is feeling the impacts of ending unemployment benefits. bit.ly Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) bid for GM’s credit card business. reut.rs Microsoft Inc (NASDAQ: MSFT) dual-screen Android phone to arrive September 10. reut.rs Airbnb plans to confidentially file for an IPO in August. reut.rs U.S. energy bankruptcy surge continues on credit, oil-price squeeze. reut.rs Fed moves too far from mandate, fine tuning poses increased risks. bit.ly Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) eyes Sears, J.C. Penney stores for fulfillment. on.wsj.com One-third of American renters expected to miss their august payment. bloom.bg More than a third of Americans wouldn’t take a free and approved COVID vaccine. bit.ly How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending, employment. bit.ly COVID-19’s impact on commercial jet fuel demand is significant and uneven. bit.ly Coronavirus shutdowns reduce consumption, shift energy costs to individuals. on.wsj.com U.K.’s faster-than-expected recovery prompts BOE to lower impairments forecast. bit.ly Intercontinental Exchange Inc’s (NYSE: ICE) Ellie Mae acquisition is credit negative. bit.ly U.S. loan to Eastman Kodak Co (NYSE: KODK) won’t proceed if allegations remain. reut.rs Shares of major airlines rose on increases in the U.S. TSA screening numbers. reut.rs Federal Reserve announces post-stress test capital ratios for large banks. reut.rs Sentiment: 30.3% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 8/12/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 5,235,179,076 as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 43% as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): OANDA:XAUUSD NASDAQ:XAU AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL TVC:USOIL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
One more Gap Filled - but with Divergences TVC:SPX Bonds up, Yen up today - Always means something. We filled a gap that frankly I thought we would have filled weeks ago, but now we have negative divergences. I won't call the top of the stock market impressive V shaped recovery rather its time for a pull back. Maybe back to the 200 day (here in bright green) so they can take more buyers even higher to fill the gap over head. The Nasdaq keeps making higher highs with more divergences - its time for a reset.
TVC:SPX
by Maximilianned