T Bond Futures Quarterly chart targets the LOWSDebt levels are increasing
There is insufficient demand to soak issuance.
Interest rates need to increase.
The value of bonds is expected to decline down to the bear flag target.
ZB1!
Divergence Since 2020 - What Happens When Bonds Continue?When Stocks & Bond Move Opposite Direction what does it mean?
We have observed a divergence between the stock and bond markets since 2020. While U.S. Treasury bonds entered a bear zone, the stock markets continued their upward climb. What are the implications of this decoupling?
Will the stock market resume its uptrend and hit new highs? Or is this merely a retracement before further downward pressure?
A healthy, three-way interdependent relationship occurs when the economy, bonds, and stocks move in the same direction. When investors have confidence in the U.S. economy, they tend to invest in long-term bonds, which it usually will benefits the stock market.
This alignment was evident between 2000 and 2020, during which bonds and stocks moved largely in tandem.
However, from 2020 onward, bonds began declining—signaling a loss of investor confidence in the economy. Technically, this should exert downward pressure on stocks as well.
Yet, we are witnessing a divergence: Where U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen while stocks have continued to rise.
When such a divergence surfaces, it signals the need for caution in our approach in the stock markets.
What could be the other reasons why US T-bond has peaked in 2020 and depreciated by 44% since then?
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUpdate: May 15, 2025
-As per my last update(April 5, 2025) about the gap between March 24th candle and March 31st candle that any candle body close above that gap will invert that gap from resistance to support and Upside target will be Jan 13, 2025 candle High
- We had a candle body close above that gap and now its acting like support.
-Now i am expecting the bullish trend to continue and long term upside target is Jan 13, 2025 candle High and Short term upside target is April 7, 2025 candle high
US Bond Slide Began in 2020 — Not Tariff-Driven. Why?The downward pressure did not start with the Liberation Day tariffs on 2nd April.
Based on the 30-year long-term bond price chart, the market peaked in 2020, then broke below a major support line—established since the 1980s—in 2022.
Since that break, US bonds have been on a downward trajectory.
So, what happened in 2020 and 2022 that set the bond market on shaky ground?
In 2020, the massive Covid QE signaled a tipping point in the debt issue that had been discussed for decades. By June 2022, inflation reached 9%, the highest in four decades. Investors grew concerned about the US's dependence on debt as the bond bubble appeared to burst.
Why is the recent tariff shock just a continuation of developments that began back then?
And where are bond prices heading next?
This goes beyond investors offloading its US Treasury holdings after 2nd April.
U.S. Treasury Futures & Options
Ticker: ZB
Minimum fluctuation:
1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
Trading the Micro: cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite.html
Why Is the T Bond Heading Down?The downward pressure did not start with the Liberation Day tariffs on 2nd April.
Based on the 30-year long-term bond price chart, the market peaked in 2020, then broke below a major support line—established since the 1980s—in 2022.
Since that break, US bonds have been on a downward trajectory.
So, what happened in 2020 and 2022 that set the bond market on shaky ground?
Why is the recent tariff shock just a continuation of developments that began back then?
And where are bond prices heading next?
This goes beyond investors offloading its US Treasury holdings after 2nd April.
U.S. Treasury Futures & Options
Ticker: ZB
Minimum fluctuation:
1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
t-bonds x alt season.t-bonds are primed for lift-off.
we just witnessed the largest decline in the history of the treasury. since march 2020, t-bonds have looked like they’re in a correction. most are calling it five waves down, signaling a deeper bear market. but they’re seeing the surface, not the structure.
i'm building a case that says otherwise.
the five-wave drop from all-time highs? that wasn’t the start of the bear market.
it was the end of wave c in an expanded flat that began in 2016.
most think the t-bond bear market started in 2020.
i’m saying it started in 2016,,,
and if i’m right, it just ended.
---
as the market prices-in future interest rate cuts, fueled by artificial suppression of gas prices and inflation stabilisation, t-bond values will climb throughout this next year.
normally, stocks and bonds move inverse to each other.
not this time.
this time, they move together. 1:1.
why? because the us dollar is about to get wrecked.
quantitative easing is coming back.
liquidity will expand.
the global liquidity index will rise.
the way we make that happen is by crushing the dxy.
---
tldr;
- rate cuts incoming
- making t-bonds go up
- quantitative easing
- nukes the dxy
- making stocks go up
- risk-on environment returns
- risk assets go parabolic
- alt season is triggered.
🌙
Powerful Signal for Buy On ZB1As you can see from the chart, the price right now is in a strong support zone, with a Red squeeze candle (spring box). And we are likely to see a significant explosion in price to the 119 levels.
Downside Ahead For T Bonds - COT Strategy ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
T Bonds (ZB)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: Extreme high in OI. Generally, extremely high OI found at market tops.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for t bonds to go down into October
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & POIV Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Fundamentally Setup Markets For This WeekI have identified the following markets are "set-up" for moves of some significance.
This video goes into the fundamental reasons for these trade ideas.
NOTE: I am not looking to go long/short these markets immediately. I will wait for a change in trend on the Daily to get involved with these markets. The tools used to identify these trade setups are not timing tools. The tools do give us an idea of how market participants with significant size and intelligence (commercials) are positioning themselves. The tools also give us an idea of sentiment, valuation, seasonality, and also an idea of what the (usually wrong) public/small traders are doing.
LONGS:
HEATING OIL (HO)
GASOLINE (RBOB)
MEXICAN PESO (6M)
SOYBEANS (ZS)
COTTON (CT)
SUGAR (SB)
SHORTS:
EURO CURRENY (6E)
JAPANESE YEN (6J)
SWISS FRANC (6S)
GOLD (GC)
30 YEAR TREASURIES (ZB)
Good Luck & Good Trading.
ZB Bonds 30YrThe market continues to step out the final leg of this interim B-wave up that's interceding for now before the true decline of note as we head into 2025+.
US Bonds, despite the analysis and weakness projected, remain a more viable unit than does Japan and Europe as we move forward.
ZB1 weekly analysis
ZB1 continues to trend lower, with a brief respite after finding support liquidity on Tue 03 Sep '13. This occurred alongside a favorable market environment following a drop in inflation. However, after Q1, the Fed announced that interest rates would remain fixed until 2025. This has led to a continuous decline in ZB1, targeting lower lows and aiming for short-term support liquidity around 107'05. The subsequent target, if the price continues to drop, would be 103'22.
In technical analysis, we observe the market absorbing liquidity before rallying to reach the order block for a liquidity purge.
ZBZ3Shorted in Sept shorting in Oct.
Another 30 year T-bond short most effective day to open over the last 15 yrs is 10/2 missed it but opening today. Will want to hold this open until the 24th of October. Look at the December Contract as the front running contract for this trade. Futures = Calender spread back date the long side to the March contract. Options... I am torn safe bet is to sell for the premium like a credit spread. But if your willing to chance it and pay the premium a debit spread could be worth it.
"Take a wild guess what im shorting in Nov. you'll never guess it." - KewlKat
Sell 3T Bonds at Markethello trader
Sell point 108.18 TARGET 104.22
Expecting the sell-side targets to be reached sooner or later, this would cause a rise in Interest rates and the prices of commodities and Dollar Index
Bonds showing signs of a serious risk off scenarioThe rapid decent of Bonds from 129 was telling. Yet while most think that we have reached the bottom there are indications that this is not the case.
WE are currently here:
ZB is making a retracement, I think we can see a price rebalancing up to 120'22
The potential Highs at 121'31 will lure Buyers, yet a rejection of these levels will have serious indication that investors are in for a rough patch, yields will be higher on the bright side. 🤷🏻♂️
ZBBonds are gross and so is this trade....
Short Trade (Naked no Spread)
Entry Sept 3rd, exit Sept 15
Tick Size: 32nds of a point ($31.25/ contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract.
Margin Maintance:4290/3900
Contract Size:$100,000
Have fun with this one................................................
"Wait until the kids get a load of this......... and their college fund is gone."
-KewlKat
Follow the rabbit ZB1!/SPX Cannot understate the importance of the treasury market and how powerful this chart is.
I recommend keeping the sale portfolioI recommend keeping the portfolio selling treasury bond futures contracts for 30 years, but while breaking the red moving average indicated by the blue arrow, I recommend buying
BREAKDOWN ANALYSIS ZB 22/05/2023dear traders zb was in down trend agrressive down trend if you look for good setup wait for price to reject from one of the zone then wait for price action to react
trade safe and good luck
ZB1! made a PullbackHello traders
ZB1! made a Pullback in The 15 min time frame and there is a strong probability for short term buyers to enter a long trade.
Tell me what what you think
Regards,
Mehdi
ZB Shatters Resistance Level on 15-Minute ChartHello Traders,
There is a big potential bearish opportunity in the ZB market! The 15-minute time frame just showed a break in a key support level, indicating a potential downtrend. With this technical signal, combined with current market conditions, it's possible that we may see a further decline in the ZB price. Keep an eye on this market and follow me for more updates on potential trading opportunities!"
Tell me what you think
Regards,
The Mehdi
DXY | TBONDS | ZB1 |DECRYPTERS HI people Welcome to Team DECRYPTERS
BRIEF Views with connecting DOTS:-
--We are Expecting a DUE Retracement on DXY This week At least to TARGET 1 -
--TARGET 2 will Still be on Cards -
-- ZB1! ( T BONDS YEILD )We are Also EXPECTING them to Rise up as manipulation Move ( 2nd Quarter ).
-- We Also EXPECT LONG TERMS Bonds will Also face INFLOW of MONEY.
--Also peak in rates is probably to be in , so Bonds can Rally .
