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Corn

Corn Market **Please do not take this as a projection or extreme bullish stance. This Market is sensitive to major up and down moves that will eventually leave many surprised by the high and the low it will leave behind. The quarterly chart shows extreme highs being made in the past 50 years. The current Corn market shares some similarities with the 06’-08 and the 71’-73’ Markets. Supply, Demand, and Inflationary driven Markets. Add emotionally driven as well…. • 71’-73’ Had the Russian Grain robbery and the US$ taken off the gold standard. I don’t know about production back then but the World demand and inflationary fears were very strong • 06’-08’ Had new demand in US ethanol paired with a strong growing China economy hungry for US grains. The 07/08 housing crisis brought fears of inflation. I am unsure on production in those years. • 20’-22’ Domestic and world demand is strong. There have been areas of production misses the past couple of years across major exporting nations, and Inflationary fears are elevated. Part of last year’s corn rally ending was due to rationing of corn for feed demand as Corn approached $7.00, Wheat still had a 5 in front of it. This year Wheat has been trading above $8. Major corn rallies of the past were preceded by strong Wheat rallies. With similar ingredients to previous Major Bull rallies, I feel that potential upside on this market is extreme and unmeasurable. Because we never know for sure, I had Identified the 5.75+ area as a place to target old crop sales, with the 7.35 area the potential upside/resistance. But beyond that I feel that the 9.50 area should be considered for potential extreme upside. Both of the previously identified markets rallied more than 200% of their 24 month low before cooling off. I do think it is fair to use rate of change as potential upside when dealing with inflationary type markets. Corn has never been to 9.50 before, but (twice in 50 years) it has seen a rate of change of 200%. For New Crop Corn: I don’t know if there is anything we can do with this other than look more at courage calls, or to be more engaged with puts (with a roll up program). This is a monthly continuous chart that will be driven by old crop contracts. There could be a strong old crop/new crop inverse if this thing was to get excited the first 6 months of this year, but new crop contracts should perform well. It is dangerous to put out charts showing such extreme levels, but I think it is prudent to shock test Margin callscenarios against such extreme levels. **Down side support is 4.75-5.15, extreme Risk is 3.80 to 3.00.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Big Picture look at Corn Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** (IMO) The current Domestic and World; Supply & Demand numbers,paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. 2014-2020 that was a 3.75 base. If the Market went to far above or below 3.75, eventually it came back to it. Resistance above the 5.75 area at 6.50 - 7.35. **5.75+ is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Major Support is the 5.15 to 4.75 area. **Many 22’ break evens are coming in at this range. Eventually price will return to this area. Risk is 4.00-3.80 range with further extreme risk at 3.00. We traded a 6 year range from 3.00 to 4.50, someday there could still be a pull back to that area **This is a continuous front month chart, new crop (currently Dec 22’) targets should be considered when front month futures hit target areas…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Continuous CornA few things for direction on Corn after report. Some bias for more upside longer term, but the market has been saying not so fast lately. US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs (more so for beans than corn as China usually does not buy much corn) Trends higher after export program concludes. Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports…. COT: Commercial Net is tipping lower. Natural selling by farmer. (+) Commercial Shorts could be reversing to add to positions, typically places a low. (+) Commercial Longs have not been adding. Until they start adding I will remain neutral. (+/-) Funds are adding to longs. (+) **These indicators lag behind change in trends. But if we do trend after the report, It should help confirm a bigger picture scenario either way….
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Continuous CornCorn – Weekly Cont: The 5.47 area had the most volume by price since the uptrend began. Did the recent bump give the Funds an opportunity to bail on their longs or does it prove to be an area of accumulation for funds and end users??? Weekly support at 5.21 needs to hold for the weak longs. Further key support at 4.98. Risk is 4.66-4.37. So far the cloud is acting as good support. Any further strength needs to see a weekly close above the 5.44-5.47 resistance. Initial target above 5.47 is at 5.88 and then 6.16. Current “Market Structure” is very sensitive. Downside Risk is 4.37, Upside Risk is any posted number up to 8.81
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
December CornPossibly put the highs in for Dec Corn here...as shown in chart, we faded the gains from the bullish July USDA crop report (which showed lower acreage) on better weather forecasts after wknd of the 4th...weather maps less threatening in corn belt as of late and is bearish feature for the next few weeks should forecasts confirm. Condition ratings expected to increase. Spreads are firm though and there is some support from Bean oil as the Canola mkt is experiencing production issues due to ongoing drought. This feature could have potential to pull CZ higher but I believe the upside here is limited. I expect CZ to trade down to ~520 range and b/c range bound from there.
CBOT:ZCZ2021Short
by King_of_Beans