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Zc1

Corn and Rate of Change PotentialCorn – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous 4 major bull markets of the past 50 years. Previous price action on charts are often used for support and resistance. I like to look at rate of change during certain periods. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 140% and compares to the 95-96 and the 11-12 rally’s. The previous all time high on corn was 8.43 in Aug 12’ and will act as resistance. If we look at potential price above 8.43, the ROC from 71-73 can be used to project potential up to the 9.50 area. If we use the 06-08 ROC that projects price up to 11.35. **Disclosure** Do not take this as trading advice. The potential is there for 9.50 to 11.35 Corn, but anything could keep us from getting above today’s High.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
4
Corn Futures (ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 814'4 Pivot: 807'4 Support: 795'4 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish dip from our pivot level at 807'4 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 795'4 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci projection and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price might break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level at 814'4 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ReversalType : Bearish Reversal Resistance: 778'0 Pivot: 772'6 Support : 762'0 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish reversal from our pivot at 772'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 762'0 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 778'0 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn - Weekly ContinuousPrice stalled out in the bull trap area between 7.66 and 8.00 after placing the 7.82 high. Bull Trap- Mark a new high and clear out any stop orders above previous highs but fail above in the 113%-127% retracement area. Open interest has been trending lower since last year’s breakout into this bull market. Funds are near record long already but with the amount of money in all markets, it should not surprise to see more fund length enter our commodity space. I feel that the end users control this next move. If they feel the pressure to extend their coverage, I expect the Funds to follow their lead and enter the long side of this market. Any extension to open interest should be positive to Corn prices…. Support 6.97 then 6.45. Resistance 7.66, 7.82, with targets above at 8.32 and 8.82
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H1 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 756'4 Pivot: 745'2 Support : 738'0 Preferred case: We see the potential for bullish bounce from our Pivot level at 756'4 in line 28.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level at 756'4 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by stochastic indicator where it is at support level. Alternative scenario: If price continues to dip, it can potentially move towards our 1st support level at 738'0 which is in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No Major News.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Bearish ReversalType : Bearish Reversal Resistance : 782'2 Pivot: 765'0 Support : 730'0 Preferred case: We see the potential for bearish dip from our Pivot level at 765'0 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st Support at 730'0 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: If price continues to go up, it can potentially move towards our 1st Resistance level at 782'2 which is in line with a graphical swing high resistance. Fundamentals: No Major News.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
10 year Corn Projection (potentially) 10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many I have) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be 7.80, maybe 8.50, or even 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the more corn rations future demand. The low found after a major high is made could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that are all supportive to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch** At some point we return to a tighter, more defined market structure working low prices against the long term uptrend line… 4.50-5.25 ???
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Corn ( ZC1!) , H4 Potential bullish continuationType : Bullish continuation Resistance : 793'6 Pivot: 719'4 Support : 659'0 Preferred Case: On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 719'4 in line with horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 760'0 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension . Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving above the ichimoku cloud . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 659'0 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news event.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
🌾CORN - BitCorn is Back🌽🌮🍿Last year we bought because of inflation. This year things are even more serious, there is a war between Russia and Ukraine. Column: Concerns rise over Black Sea spring crops amid Russia-Ukraine war: www.reuters.com Looks like Fajitas and Tacos🌮, Kellogs frosties 🐯 and other cereal , corn on the cob 🌽, even go ''pop'' in the cinema🍿 might become expensier. On a more serious note, poverty will hit some and food will become a luxury for some. Sad but true. Scary... May logic prevail, the FXPROFESSOR 🌾
CBOT_MINI:XC1!Long
by FX_Professor
4
Corn Market **Please do not take this as a projection or extreme bullish stance. This Market is sensitive to major up and down moves that will eventually leave many surprised by the high and the low it will leave behind. The quarterly chart shows extreme highs being made in the past 50 years. The current Corn market shares some similarities with the 06’-08 and the 71’-73’ Markets. Supply, Demand, and Inflationary driven Markets. Add emotionally driven as well…. • 71’-73’ Had the Russian Grain robbery and the US$ taken off the gold standard. I don’t know about production back then but the World demand and inflationary fears were very strong • 06’-08’ Had new demand in US ethanol paired with a strong growing China economy hungry for US grains. The 07/08 housing crisis brought fears of inflation. I am unsure on production in those years. • 20’-22’ Domestic and world demand is strong. There have been areas of production misses the past couple of years across major exporting nations, and Inflationary fears are elevated. Part of last year’s corn rally ending was due to rationing of corn for feed demand as Corn approached $7.00, Wheat still had a 5 in front of it. This year Wheat has been trading above $8. Major corn rallies of the past were preceded by strong Wheat rallies. With similar ingredients to previous Major Bull rallies, I feel that potential upside on this market is extreme and unmeasurable. Because we never know for sure, I had Identified the 5.75+ area as a place to target old crop sales, with the 7.35 area the potential upside/resistance. But beyond that I feel that the 9.50 area should be considered for potential extreme upside. Both of the previously identified markets rallied more than 200% of their 24 month low before cooling off. I do think it is fair to use rate of change as potential upside when dealing with inflationary type markets. Corn has never been to 9.50 before, but (twice in 50 years) it has seen a rate of change of 200%. For New Crop Corn: I don’t know if there is anything we can do with this other than look more at courage calls, or to be more engaged with puts (with a roll up program). This is a monthly continuous chart that will be driven by old crop contracts. There could be a strong old crop/new crop inverse if this thing was to get excited the first 6 months of this year, but new crop contracts should perform well. It is dangerous to put out charts showing such extreme levels, but I think it is prudent to shock test Margin callscenarios against such extreme levels. **Down side support is 4.75-5.15, extreme Risk is 3.80 to 3.00.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Big Picture look at Corn Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** (IMO) The current Domestic and World; Supply & Demand numbers,paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. 2014-2020 that was a 3.75 base. If the Market went to far above or below 3.75, eventually it came back to it. Resistance above the 5.75 area at 6.50 - 7.35. **5.75+ is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Major Support is the 5.15 to 4.75 area. **Many 22’ break evens are coming in at this range. Eventually price will return to this area. Risk is 4.00-3.80 range with further extreme risk at 3.00. We traded a 6 year range from 3.00 to 4.50, someday there could still be a pull back to that area **This is a continuous front month chart, new crop (currently Dec 22’) targets should be considered when front month futures hit target areas…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980