A perfect ending? who will end the Bitcoin bull market?First of all, I am not a market predictor. The reason why I made this topic is because I found the perfect geometric structure on the Bitcoin price chart. This geometric structure has perfectly verified the high and low points of Bitcoin on the weekly chart since 2017. I am surprised indeed. If this perfect structure is to be maintained, the all-time high of Bitcoin that we have just experienced may be the end of the first phase of the bull market since last year with principle of least resistance line.
With all-time high of ~ 58504$ on Feb, 2021,
~19927$ high price on Dec, 2017 is perfectly 0.618 (Key golden ratio) of this all-time high;
~3093$ low price on Dec, 2018 is perfectly all-time low (Zen Theory, 1st buying point);
~14030$ high price on Jun, 2019 is perfectly 0.5 (Key golden ratio) of this all-time high;
~3772$ low price on Mar, 2020 is perfectly 0.114 =(1-0.886) of this all-time high; (Zen Theory, 2nd buying point);
With these four verified high/low price points, the history makes a perfect geometric structure in nature. This is the reason why I name the topic? From the long term, I am still bullish on Bitcoin. However, a retracement will be helpful to form Zen Theory pivot zone and accordingly a 3rd buying point, which may be happen in 2 years later.
To form a Zen 3rd buy point on weekly chart, there are three possible support levels,
1. 0.886 of all-time high, which is ~41700$
2. 0.786 of all-time high, which is ~31287$
3. 0.618 of all-time high, which is ~19099$
The lower ratio value, the longer time it takes.
When will a weekly level dump happen?
It is still taking some time for sub-week level pivot zone to form. From weekly BBPMACD indicator, we can see although bull power shrinks quickly, bear power still very low to activate a pump in weeks.
Who will be the driving force behind the Bitcoin price dump?
The answer is FED. It is the central bank of all global central banks. US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD (US10Y) have surged recently, causing global risk assets to dive. This means that the global cost of risk-free assets has suddenly dropped to the level of ~64. Based on my own calculation, current equivalent Bitcoin PE Ratio is around 32. This means that when US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD rises to 3.14%, the price of Bitcoin may drop sharply. The S&P 500 index may fall first at around 2.5%.
