$BTC and its bear market rally.It's a bear market rally.
But first, where are we in CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's wave cycles?
Cycle wave V underway, cycle wave IV completed.
With these wave counts, we can validate that we have already seen the bottom.
Rejoice!
Looking deeper into its primary wave counts and its fractals..
Ongoing: Primary wave ① > Intermediate wave (4) > Minor wave ⓑ
I slant towards these wave counts as I see strong and clear counter-trending wave movements.
Counter-trending waves tend to fluctuate (violent moves) and can play out in deep triangles.
But we are also yet to see clear structure forming.
In the coming days and weeks zig-zags, double-threes or even triple-threes formations can play out.
In the meantime, I see testing $30k as a good probability.
For now though, a clear signal that the bottom for counter-trend wave (4) structure would be a break of FWB:27K support.
While I'm really looking forward to its completion, I dread the news that will bring us there.
>.<
Zigzag
Ethereum - The downtrend is over! Time to buy again.
Ethereum is approaching a key support, and it's a good time to buy/long!
If we take the Fibonacci retracement for wave 3, the price is very close to the 0.618 level. Also, the previous wave 1 acts as a strong support, so we have a great confluence from the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci perspectives.
We should go up and make a new high to complete the impulse wave on this chart. I expect another small bull market on Bitcoin.
On the 4-hour and daily charts, we can clearly see an ascending parallel channel that has been destroyed by the bears recently. This channel should be at least retested, but I expect more.
What happens after we finish this impulse wave? You don't want to hear it, but Bitcoin is going to crash to 15k, so make sure you are prepared for it!
The true bull market will start in 2024.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
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Bitcoin - New CME GAP! + All unfilled GAPS (cheat)
Bitcoin has created a new CME GAP between 28215 - 28265. It's also the POC of the consolidation structure, so it could be a good short-term trade when the price makes a pullback.
First, let me explain some important facts about CME gaps. CME Futures on Bitcoin started in December 2017. We had dozens of unfilled gaps from 2017 - 2023, and all of them have been filled. So the statistical probability of filling these gaps on Bitcoin is 100%. When the CME futures started, the huge bear market of 2017–2018 started, and Bitcoin crashed by 84%.
Let me remind you (if you forget it), that the major CME GAP between 20330 - 21110 is completely uncovered, and the question is when we will cover it. It can take a few weeks or a few months, or maybe later. Time is not important.
In total, we have 3 unfilled GAPs on the daily chart. One is above the current price between 34450 - 35180. Two are below the current price, between 28215 - 28265 and 20330 - 21110.
On the left side of the chart, you can see fair value GAPS on the spot market. These gaps tend to be filled if they are massive, and these gaps are extremely huge. In my opinion, we are going to go down sooner or later, fill them, and take liquidity below 15.5k. It could happen in Q4-2023 or Q1-2024 due to my calculations.
If you find this analysis informative, hit like/boost right now! Appreciate it.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
Thank you for reading!
DXY - Dollar comeback and stock market crash! (prepare for it)
The DXY index is currently sitting on the major support, and at this point, I think it's a good idea to speculate on a bounce from the support. As you can see, we have just retested the trendline on the monthly chart and retested wave (3) + wave 1.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, we are missing a final impulse wave upwards to complete this bullish cycle on the DXY index: 2008 - 2023(2024?). Use your Elliott Wave count to compare with my analysis.
The final wave 5 should end right above the previous wave 3 because of the wave 2 deep retracement. I do not expect any brutal extended wave 5 to the moon.
After we reach my target (around 116), the ascending parallel channel will breakdown and the dollar will go down. I do not trade forex or stocks, because my specialization is only in the crypto market, but I am not only a trader; I am also an analyst, and I enjoy doing analyses for all kinds of markets. For maximum performance, it's best to focus only on 1 area, such as only on crypto, only on stocks, only on forex, only on commodities, and so on. The market behavior absolutely differs, and you have to use different tools and strategies. A strategy that is profitable on crypto gets totally REKT on forex. People who say that his strategy or trading system works on all markets are either scamming you or lying to you.
As I said, DXY is sitting on the major support on the monthly chart, and usually you want to long supports and short resistances. In this case, we want to long the support.
If DXY drops below 99, then it's over, and this channel is going to break down. Everything indicates that the recession is pretty much inevitable. And when the Fed pivots, a market crash is almost guaranteed.
Now the question is, when will we rise on the DXY? We could start consolidating at these levels before an uptrend, or we can start an uptrend very soon. This is an analysis of the monthly chart, so it could take another few months!
Q2 2023 could be still bullish for the crypto market!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
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Bitcoin - All levels on the weekly chart (must know!)
You can use these levels for your trades, because I am pretty sure we will see a reaction on all of them! These levels will be respected even on the 1-minute chart, so do not underestimate them!
If one of these levels is destroyed, it's likely that the price will move to the next level specified on the chart.
On the bullish side of the chart, we have a strong level that will be tested very soon. It's the POC of the previous market structure and a strong horizontal level at 29765.
Above this level, there is an unfilled GAP between 37836 and 32399. This is the only major unfilled GAP on the Binance chart. These types of gaps are called fair value GAPS.
0.618 LOG SCALE FIB (38981) is definitely the strongest resistance out there. Also, we have a POC of the previous structure exactly at the same level. If the price gets to this level, we will experience a massive, brutal crash. Make sure you get informed when we reach this level, so follow me to stay updated!
0.618 LINEAR SCALE FIB (48553) is at confluence with the previous swing high. It's definitely a strong resistance as well, but if the bulls destroy this level, then it opens the gate to a new all-time high (69000), which is the last resistance!
On the bearish side of the chart, there is only 1 strong level at this point, and it's the previous swing low at 15476. I think we will reach this level sometimes later this year or next year!
2 unfilled GAPs below the current price are also strong supports. They are between 22602 - 26508 and 17176 - 19549. I am telling you that these gaps are extremely massive, and the chances of filling them are soooooo high, sooner or later.
If the bulls fail to hold the 15476 level, we will go to 10k! It's a possible scenario, and it could happen, and the chances are not low at all.
Otherwise, this is a bearish Elliott Wave count, which is still my main count. Of course, I also have a bullish count, but I will switch to it after we reach levels above 43k.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
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Bitcoin to 1 USD - Whales plan revealed! it's over! (99% CRASH)
It's over for Bitcoin because the whales started to manipulate the price. But fortunately, I know their plan, which is why I have to share it with you as soon as possible!
First of all, whales. They want as low a price as possible because why should they buy at the current expensive price when they can send Bitcoin back and buy it cheaper?
This is an analysis of the monthly chart with full history. We need to take the FIB retracement for the whole uptrend and look for the 0.618 value. Whales love to buy Bitcoin at the 0.618 FIB retracement, and in this case, it's 0.80 USDT.
FAIR VALUE GAP BETWEEN 0.97 - 1.99 USDT (UNFILLED GAP) is another confluence why we should go down. All gaps tend to be filled sooner or later.
The impulse wave from 2009 to 2021 has finished, and we are looking for an ABC correction. No doubt about it at all.
The MACD indicator is absolutely terrible. We can see that the histogram was at the lowest level in history, this is not good.
What's more, if we take a look at the volume indicator, we can see absolutely low volume. The whales are not buying at all.
The whales will send Bitcoin temporarily to zero until there are no orders in the orderbook from retail traders. (It happened with OIL before, so why not?)
I hope you like this secret gameplan from whales; do not tell anyone, because it should be only for my followers.
Today is April 1, so happy Easter and April Fools' Day! If you think this analysis is for real, then you have been pranked!
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Bitcoin - No one talks about this trendline, last wave up!
Bitcoin is appraoching an extremely strong resistance at around 30k. The chance of crash from this level is extremely high!
We can see that the uptrend from 20k to almost 30k in March is steep and without any major corrections.
From the Elliott Wave perspective I expect last fifth wave to the upside to complete an impulse wave. We can find a resistance at the major trendline that you can see on the chart, or you can call it a broadening wedge.
If you open a short position slightly below 30k, then what is the profit target? 0.618 FIB and POC of the previous structure is at 23k. If you want to take profit earlier than 0.382 FIB at around 25k is the next option because it is also a strong horizontal resistance on the weekly chart.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
If we take a look at the RSI indicator on the daily chart, we can be sure that after the final impulse wave the indicator will be oversold, so this is probably not the best time to buy/long at this point.
In my opinion, a CRASH to 15k is probable later this year, maybe in September / October, so be prepared for it because this will be the best time for an investment position with a target of around 150k!
I took a look at all major altcoins on major exchanges and I can tell you that 95% of them looks totally bearish on the highest timeframe, the bottom is definitely not in for them.
This is my game plan for Bitcoin at this moment as I said I expect one last wave to the upside before a huge crash. I am not going to long or buy Bitcoin at this point after this pump because it's of course dangerous and we have a lot of unfilled GAPs below the current price.
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Shiba Inu - 23% crash, best opportunity! (long-term outlook)
We have a great opportunity to buy/long Shiba Inu at the yellow trendline, which is a good support level for a short-term trade.
Unfortunately, the Shiba Inu coin still looks really bad on the highest timeframe. All previous pumps were only an ABC 3-wave structure, which is overall definitely not a good sign!
The bulls still don't show strength from the Elliott Wave perspective because we can see 3-wave structures upward and 5-wave structures downward.
After the breakout of the blue parallel channel, the bulls completely failed to continue in the uptrend; it was essentially a fakeout or a bull trap.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
23% crash is pretty likely at this moment, and you can take this opportunity and long shiba inu at the support line with leverage on the futures market!
Is the bottom in for shiba inu? From my perspective, - NO. I believe we will eventually reach 0.00000500 (a 55% drop from the current price).
This is my idea for the Shiba Inu coin; now do your actions!
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Bitcoin - The bottom is not in! 15k or 10k (careful)
Everyone thinks that the bottom is in and we are going to a new all-time high, but in my opinion, that's definitely not true. In this analysis, I will tell you why!
First of all, we need to take a look at the huge dump that occurred in 2021–2022 (from 69k to 15k). From the Elliott Wave perspective, it's most likely an impulse wave, not a corrective wave, because there are no overlaps between swings and the price action was extremely steep and bleedy. Also, there are no triangles in this structure whatsoever. You may say that it's not an impulse but a WXYXZ triple-three corrective pattern. It's possible, but in my opinion, these patterns tend to have more sideways price action than steep. You may also say that it's an ABC correction, but there are clearly 5 waves.
We should be in a major corrective B wave followed by a major C wave, which should end between 15k and 10k. I am not saying we will reach 10k for sure, but we should at least take liquidity below 15.5k to complete the ABC correction. That means if you buy Bitcoin now, you will experience a big drawdown on your account.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
10k is a strong psychological level, and there is plenty of reason to buy Bitcoin here. 0.618 LOG FIB retracement and the start of the GAP are definitely reasonable targets.
Right now, we are clearly in an uptrend on the weekly chart, and Bitcoin could reach 30k to 40k. The invalidation point for this analysis is 45k. If we reach this level, then I am wrong and I will buy BTC and ride the bull market to 150k. Targets will be specified for sure in one of my next analyses, so make sure you follow me and my updates!
The potential reversal point for this major corrective wave is, in my opinion, at 30k (strong horizontal support and POC) or 39k (0.618 LOG FIB). Then we should go down to 15k at least.
Also, if we take a look at the previous price action from 2018 - 2020, we had an exponencial pump from 3k to 14k followed by an exponencial dump from 14k to 4k. But we didn't take liquidity below the 3k level. This time I expect liquidity to be taken below the 15.5k level.
I hope this analysis is clear for you, and considering the upcoming recession and upcoming stock market crash, it's also possible to go down to 15K from a fundamental perspective.
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Bitcoin - 10% crash, pullback is very likely!
Bitcoin is likely to go down, because this falling wedge is breaking down and also because the impulse wave has been completed!
10% crash is the minimum at this point, but we could go even lower.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
As you can see, we have 2 trendlines, and both of them are breaking down.
In my opinion, this trend is already overextended and we should see a bearish retracement.
We have a lot of unfilled GAPs below the current price, and usually gaps act like a magnet, sooner or later.
This is a quick update on the Bitcoin price; if you want more updates on lower timeframes, make sure you hit the like button right now so I know you are interested!
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USD/ZAR Price Turns BearishUSDZAR Has been in an impulse phase and it has been completed with no rules violated. We are in the bearish phase of the market, we have two counts going on where it could be an impulse in the downside suggesting a long-term sell-off or a short-term sell-off as a correction meaning we are trading in a wave (C) instead.
The idea of an impulse is a little complex but the idea would be to trade a wave 3 looking at the retracement it would make sense to target the 2,618. Correlating this pair to USDCAD we are more likely to have long-term sells but keeping an eye on the price level where a Zig-Zag pattern completes will be very important.
Bitcoin - 100% probability to go down to 20k!
Based on historical performance, we have a 100% probability of going down to 20k to fully or partially fill the GAP on CME futures.
I am not saying that this is going to happen with 100% certainty, but I am saying that this is a statistical fact because all gaps on CME futures were at least partially filled. You can check out the history of this chart on the daily chart from 2017 - 2023.
Now it's up to you if you want to go against the 100% statistical probability. I am just giving you all the important facts and information.
When will this gap be filled, is the question. Again, based on historical data, it could take a few days, a few weeks, a few months, or even more.
Bitcoin is currently rising, and the next strong resistance is around 30k. It's the POC of the previous structure and the start of the previous gap. There is a pretty good chance that we will see a huge crash from this level!
From my Elliott Wave perspective, there are valid bearish and bullish scenarios because this whole uptrend from 15500 to 27000 can be the start of a huge impulse or just an ABC correction. So for this particular timeframe, we need more data to make a confirmation. On the left side, you can see a bearish ABC correction, which is valid.
This ABC correction can have an extended A wave with a steep and quick C wave. So make sure you take it into consideration!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
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Bitcoin - Last crash before a pump! (must see)
The price of bitcoin is currently near the 0.618 FIB. Usually it acts as a magnet when the price is near this very strong level.
The market moves in waves, and wave A should end exactly at the 0.618 FIB. After we reach this level, we are going to go up to retest the previous major trendline because we have a huge unfilled gap and an untested pattern. After that, we are going to go down again to 17600 - 17400 to fill the previous GAP and complete the ABC correction.
I recommend you buy Bitcoin at these levels with a profit target of 30k+. I will make an update and you will know exactly when to sell, so make sure you follow me and also hit the like button right now if you want more updates on BTC!
There is a pretty good chance to visit the 10k level; if you haven't seen my previous analysis, make sure to check it out in the related section down below!
On the chart, you can see the most likely scenario for Bitcoin. Let me know in the comment section: what is your plan? I want to know your opinion, and I will answer your comment!
The price action on Bitcoin is very well readable. The structure is well-made at this point. Make sure you also have a bearish and a bullish scenario on the table.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
Thank you, and I wish you fun during your trades!
Buy Bitcoin at 17600 | Secret level
Buy/long Bitcoin at 17600, because there is an unfilled GAP between the previous candles. It's the start of the huge parabolic uptrend, and the bulls will most likely defend this level!
It looks like Bitcoin is going to reach levels above 25000 after we fill the GAP and complete this Elliott Wave corrective pattern (ABC). Currently, we are in wave B.
Why should Bitcoin not fall below the 17600 level? There is no reason to go down because the majority of liquidity is exactly at this point.
What is the target for wave C? Wave C 's target will be specified in one of my next analyses. Make sure you follow me! We need to use a FIB extension from Wave A -> B later to help determine the target. But at this point, we can speculate between 25000 and 39000.
On the chart, I can see a strong impulse wave (A). This gives us a great chance for a continuation to the upside after we finish this correction.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
If you haven't seen my previous analysis, where I told you that Bitcoin could go to 10k, make sure to check it out right now!
At this point, we need to be patient and wait for bitcoin to reach 17600. If we reach this level, it's a good idea to turn bullish again and buy some great altcoins as well.
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