AUDUSD short idea
Fundamental bias for this pair is Bearish, because of Strong USD in sake of hawkish monitory policy and neutral bias for AUS because of decrease in China's economic growth and the problems of Corona in China, which caused problems in the supply chain
Daily trend is sell
AUD 10Y bond yield: 3.976
U.S. 10Y: 3.697
Most of Retail traders are in long position so this is another sell opportunity.
This opportunity can be open a sell at 0.64888 and another sill limit at 0.66234 area
Ziwox-terminal
Long on GOLD, just for short-term📝 Weekly gold
From the beginning of 2022 to this moment, It was the best for the US dollar.
In the last 9 months, this global reserve currency has taken full advantage of the increase in interest rates, risk-averse flows, and the lack of a suitable alternative during the recession.
In last Powell speak, he said, would do whatever it takes to control inflation, even if the measures lead to recession. This strengthened the US dollar again and kept the rise of gold.
◽️ A strong labor market has convinced the Fed chief that the economy can withstand the central bank's contractionary policies without going into recession According to this, interest rates will remain at high levels for a while
◽️ Gold has room to see higher prices but, we have to be more careful about our trades when FED is ready for another new hike.
Currently, the market has priced in an 85% probability of a 0.75% interest rate hike for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
◽️ This week's economic data is very important like previous weeks because inflation data (CPI) can show the roadmap of the central bank and how successful it is in curbing inflation.
Inflationary expectations have decreased slightly and if it continues for several months, it will lead traders to bet on reducing hawkish policies.
A weaker release data could be pressure on the USD and could push the gold too and the effect could be just for a short-term Because we know about the policies of the central bank and the 4% target at the end of the year
🔻 What our team predicts is that the dollar will have a downward bias this week due to lower inflation expectations, and for that reason, gold can grow in the short term.
but keep in mind, that the mid-term bias of the US dollar is bullish and Gold is bearish. So you should expect a little upward return for gold.
🔻 Your support levels could be $1690 and $1700, and the resistance for your long positions is $1728 and $1745
🔻 A price fixing above the $1728 area can lead to higher rates for gold. District $1745 and $1760
Short on EURThe EURUSD currency pair follows the parity rate of one at the ECB meeting.
EURUSD has bounced back from a good low level since the beginning of the week, which is due to the news of increased interest rates.
But the point is that the expectations from the European Central Bank have increased and this issue provides more downward space for EURUSD movements.
The possibility of a 75 percent increase in prices is valued.
At the sound of the European Central Bank announcing a half percent increase, the euro will fall. With an increase in interest rates by 75 percent, the event "buy rumors and sell in news" is expected.
will have. In addition, without a commitment to do whatever is necessary to reduce inflation, the euro will continue to lag behind the US dollar.
Any forecast of a recession in the euro area could reduce expectations of aggressive ECB actions and would be negative for the euro.
From a technical point of view, as well as with the increase of interest rates by the central bank, the price of this currency pair can reach higher levels in the short term, and due to the long-term downward outlook, recession, and high inflation, and the energy crisis, entering the selling position from the high to The rates of 0.9901 and 0.98546 will be valuable. The resistances of 1.0046 and 1.009 can limit emotional growth.
Apply proper risk.
wish you the best
EURUSD short ideaThe EURUSD currency pair only due to the Over-Bough of US dollar and the closing some of them in the higher-higher of DXY, and in another side as well as the words of the ECB regarding the increase of 75bp interest rate, will cause this currency pair to rise to higher rates, but still for the fundamental direction is BEARISH.
As a result, we suggest selling from higher areas around 1.00793 to 1.019
Range or WAIT? or SELL?On the other hand, given the good news on the US dollar, on the other hand, the bearish outlook for the EURUSD is currently neutral, which means that the probability of failure on both sides will fluctuate. Key support and resistance levels will be at 1.1280 and 1.1360, respectively.
The Ziwox terminal trading offer in the daily trading mode is selling on price corrections. Also, in terms of swing trading, the terminal knows patience better.
A break of 1.13839 indicates the strength of the euro to reach 1.1602, and where we are ready to resell this.
EURUSD, Bearish Flag paternThe downside flag on the EURUSD currency
Given the divergence between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, the euro is likely to experience lower prices against the dollar.
Despite the disappointing NFP figure, analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten market conditions this year. This will be achieved by ending quantitative easing policies and then raising interest rates. Analysts at banks such as Barclays believe that the Federal Reserve will increase in March this year.
Forecast for EURUSD
According to the daily chart, we see that the EUR / USD pair has been in a volatile range over the past few months. As a result, the pair has moved between the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. A closer look shows that the chart forms a descending flag pattern. The price is currently slightly lower than the top of the flag pattern.
Therefore, it is likely that the pair will decline in the coming days as investors predict a divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
The information of the Ziwox terminal is in the same direction.
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The fundamental direction of this pair is declining
Analysts and financial institutions forecast a 67% decline.
Their retailers are more focused on buying this asset, which further reinforces this downward scenario.
This pattern of the flag is confirmed by breaking area 1.12637.
Be successful and profitable.