Soybean Oil’s Red Pill Moment: The Short Signal Just Hit"You’ve been waiting, watching, wondering when the veil would lift. Today is that day."
Soybean oil just crossed a threshold, one that turns theory into action. This isn't just a hint anymore; it’s a red pill moment. Today, we got the confirmation we needed: a Daily bearish momentum divergence trigger has sealed the deal. If you've been waiting for a sign, here it is—the entry point is here.
Decoding the Signs from the Commitment of Traders (COT)
"What if I told you that the market leaves clues? And only the most discerning see them."
Our strategy isn’t based on surface-level movements but on patterns and signals that tell the deeper story. Soybean oil is primed for a down move. Let’s break down the intel:
Commercials’ Short Stance
Relative to their positioning over the last 26 weeks, commercials have positioned themselves heavily short. Last time they were this committed was December 2023, a setup that spelled trouble for the long side.
Overvaluation Across Key Metrics
Against gold and treasuries, soybean oil is flashing overvalued based on our WillVal indicator. This isn’t random; the market is overextended and vulnerable to the downside.
Bearish “Pinch” Confirmation
Two weeks ago, a Bearish Pinch formed on ADX/Stochastic—one of the most reliable indicators of an impending pullback. Today’s momentum divergence confirms it. The alignment is uncanny, if you’re paying attention.
Seasonal Trends: Down to December
True Seasonal points down, favoring the bears. It’s as if time itself is backing this move.
Supplementary Indicators Are Aligned
Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic are all signaling in unison: the tide is turning. Each of these alone is meaningful, but together, they mark a rare convergence that few recognize.
"The trigger is pulled, and now we walk the path."
This isn’t a drill. Today’s bearish momentum divergence confirmation is the daily trend trigger we needed, a line in the sand between potential and execution. For those who see beyond the surface, this is your sign to take action.
To uncover more of these market signals and gain the insights no one else is sharing, follow @Tradius_Trades. Because once you’re in on the code, everything changes.
Zl
USD Weakness and its OpportunitiesThe USD may be weaker, but it does mean that its bad.
Because a softer USD, some assets are starting to trend higher.
We will do a comparison between the USD and some of these assets or commodities, to see how reactive they are when the USD has trended lower in the recent months.
Soybean Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: ZL
Minimum fluctuation:
1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ZL. Zigzag for wave 2.Working on the idea of a Zigzag pattern for Wave ((2)) in the soybean oil market.
In Elliott Wave Theory, a Zigzag pattern is a corrective wave pattern that usually consists of three waves:
Wave A:
This is the initial decline from 42.68 in 5 wave sequence, setting the stage for the corrective pattern.
Wave B:
3 wave corrective rally that follows Wave A.
Wave C:
This is the final leg of the Zigzag pattern, typically extending beyond the end of Wave A. Wave C is always either an impulse or a diagonal. My interpretation of the current structure is that Wave C has developed into an expanding diagonal and may possibly end at 3956.
Invalidation for this idea = 3956
Soybean Oil: Waiting for evidence of top in place. We can see a clear pattern or 5 wave movement to the upside both in daily chart and in the sub wave of wave 5.
What come after 5 ?
Looking for evidence that top is in place and patiently waiting for my short sell setup to join the counter trend movement.
Long Term Prospects for SOY BEAN OILThe SOY BEAN OIL, symbol ZL, is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 week ema, but the 50 ema below the 200 and 800 week emas. The 50 and 200 emas are starting to turn up, so price is starting to come out of accumulation / distribution. The price action appears to be finishing up the c-wave of a c-wave up, within a multi-year x-wave. This last week ended in a doji with a long wick up showing the rejection of higher prices. This is your indication showing the market is entering a period of consolidation where the emas start coming together.
The Market is in a Bear Market Rally on the daily, with price above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 and 800 emas, with the 200 ema still below the 800 ema. Price is topping out with three pushes up in this wave, and dark clouds and shooting stars warning of a top.
The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price trading above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, which is above the 800 ema. Price is correcting having dropped below the 13 ema and having tested the 30 ema twice. There is also a big old nasty shooting star which makes for a good peak formation. Probably open down next week and trade up towards the back end of the coming week to finish out an M-Top formation, before starting a sideways consolidation, which will likely be a triangle.
This is my SOY BEAN OIL look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.