Zm
On Zoom, the Corrective Pattern is absolutely finished We have been watching closely zoom for the last weeks looking for the breakout of the massive corrective pattern we are observing right now. After 225 days, the price has tested both sides of the structure, mainly the lower zone. Based on that, we are getting ready for the breakout.
Generally speaking, it is not a good idea to trade a direct breakout of these massive structures. The main reason is that fake-outs are common, and if you are a breakout trader, one of your objectives is to avoid low-quality scenarios as much as you can. For that reason, we have defined a bullish scenario we will be waiting for.
Bullish Scenario: If we observe a breakout of the corrective pattern, we will be waiting for a retest of the broken structure or the resistance level. The formation we want to see must be formed at least for 5 daily candlesticks. Finally, we will trade, as you can see on the EXPLANATION chart. From there, we can aim at two targets, first the next resistance zone and second the previous ATH zone.
Expected Time: If everything goes as expected, we may see a 20 days movement towards the first resistance zone and 50 days towards the new ATH (take these two numbers as approximations)
Bearish Scenario: If the price cannot break the corrective pattern and the resistance zone, we may see a bearish movement towards the next support zone, around 250 - 240. We are not interested in developing any short setups here.
Thanks for reading; feel free to share your view or trading plan in the comments!
ZM : BASE 0 DURATION / POSITION TRADEZoom's long-term investment thesis is alive. It remains the best-of-breed for work-from-home communication solutions. Zoom has become a verb, very much like 'Skype,' 'Google,' and 'DocuSign.' This achievement alone demonstrates Zoom possesses an incredible combination of moats in branding and network effects. As it grows, it adds more value, and users will find it very hard to leave. Unsurprisingly, Zoom is now a $100B company. But it isn't going to stop.
Competitive advantage/moat
Moats are commonly categorized into four types: Network effects, low costs, high switching cost, and intangible assets.
Zoom possesses the most powerful ones, network effects, and brand name. Zoom is reliable, easy to use, and easily deployable. Zoom's net promoter score ('NPS') is incredibly high +70. Competitors do not even compare. None has the virality effect in 2020, quite like Zoom.
As Zoom expands features, use cases, and integrates deeper into other platforms, we believe Zoom would also acquire the high switching cost moat. While this moat isn't seen as necessary as the first two, it would help Zoom to retain customers and maintain a large user base to monetize.
Revenue was $777M, up 367% YoY from $167M, an acceleration of 17% from $646M in Q2'21. Q3'21 revenue was 24% higher than its entire revenue in FY20.
International revenue was 30% and grew 629% vs. 300% domestically.
Gross margin was 68.2%, a significant drop from 83% YoY and 72.3% QoQ due to a considerable increase in free users' usage, particularly in K-12 education intuitions. During the quarter, Zoom recorded 3.5 trillion meeting minutes, up 75% QoQ. Once Covid-related usage diminishes, we expect gross margin to improve towards Zoom's long-term target.
Operating margin was 37.4%, up from 12.8% in Q3 last year, and a decrease from Q2'21's margin of 41.7%. The figure is still extremely high and demonstrates exceptional operating leverage.
Free cash flow was £388M, up from $55M in Q3 last year. That's a 50% free cash flow margin (!). Management intends to maintain a high R&D budget of 10% of sales over the long-term. Thus, Zoom's high free cash flow generation allows Zoom to continue fuelling growth.
The outlook is excellent in our view. The FY21 revenue of 2.58B is a five-fold increase from FY20. Q4'21 revenue will be almost 40% higher than the entire revenue in FY20.
Remember that Zoom is a best-of-breed SaaS company that can touch everyone (almost)'s lives. In effect, Zoom is listening, watching, and collecting the most granule data from people's lives, at work and home. The data Zoom collects provides optionality long into the future. For the short to medium term, Zoom Phone, better monetization, K-12 free users' conversion, and expansion into telehealth, commerce, workflow, fitness, and internationally should provide a surprise boost to Zoom's growth.
SOURCE : Zoom: Will Surprise Your Portfolio In 2021, Multifaceted Growth Ahead, DTF CAPITAL, 06 Jan 2021, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
ZM - Bullish only if can go above 340ZM - This wave 4 correction I talked about a few months ago turned into a combination it seems and reached equality of wave W vs Y.
Price also bounced off the anchored VWAP from the wave 2 low.
But I don't recommend blindly buying right now, unless using tight stops of course, but rather wait for a confirmation that price really wants to turn first.
Trading map for ZOOM / Our filters to develop setups.Today we will speak about the exact situation we are waiting for before developing bullish setups on ZOOM.
Our trading philosophy is: Define the future situation you consider worth trading. Wait until that happens. Trade or Cancel the setup.
What are we waiting for on ZOOM?
1)Wait for the breakout:
We want to observe a clear bullish movement that breaks the current consolidation defined with the two yellow lines.
2)Wait for 5 - 10 days corrective pattern:
After the breakout, we want to observe sideways movements on the edge or above the broken structure (yellow lines) with a duration between 5 to 10 days
3) Look for a 1:4 risk-reward ratio setup:
Suppose the breakout and the sideways movement happens. We will be ready to trade that pattern. We want to be able to catch a 1 to 4 risk reward ratio setup AT LEAST. Why? Because that means that we are risking 1 dollar to make 4 dollars, and if we are right only 40% of the time on this setup, we are still extremely profitable. Also, once you have a clear breakout of a corrective pattern of this size, you tend to see bullish movements with similar proportions to the consolidation.
Thanks for reading; we hope this content was useful!
Trading plan on ZOOMToday we will analyze zoom, and we will provide the setup we will be waiting for in case we observe a similar price action.
Important items:
a) The price has been on a Descending Wedge for 170 days (corrective pattern).
b) Currently, the price is supported on an ascending trendline + Lower trendline of the Descending Wedge.
c) If the price breaks the ascending trendline, we can expect more bearish pressure towards the next support zone at 235.00
d) If the price cannot break the ascending trendline, we want to wait for a breakout of the wedge pattern. After that, we will look for a throwback (retest of a broken zone)
e) With all the previous conditions, we will trade above the throwback, and we will set our stop loss below it. The minimum risk-reward ratio we are looking at on this setup is 3.5
Thanks for reading!
ZM - Getting ready to rally again ?Since price topped October last year, I've been on the sideline with my clients and put this one back into our watchlist a few weeks ago.
Now it seems about to have finished a 3 waves correction wherein wave B is a Triangle.
Triangles precede the last actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree.
Simply put, it signals that the end of the ABC correction comes after one more move to the downside, in this case after wave C.
This gives us a reason to look for a reversal point.
That reversal zone might just have been found as price bounced off the green 52week EMA and the orange anchored VWAP.
Notice also that price, although it went a bit below the 100% projection of wave C compared to A, is now holding above it.
Same for the 23.6% retracement level of wave 3.
So, for now, as long as price doesn't go below 309, I will look to buy and hold this one towards 441 at first followed by the ATH at 588.
If price does go below 309, I won't dismiss my bullish view but I will stop buying until I have reasons to believe that red wave C ended and price bounced off a potential reversal zone.