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ZN - 10 Year Note 2 HourNews this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion. ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will intervene heavily. Macro Data Ahead: MONDAY, MAY 16 8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May TUESDAY, MAY 17 8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8% 8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles April 9:15 am Industrial production index April 9:15 am Capacity utilization April 10 am NAHB home builders' index May 10 am Business inventories (revision) March WEDNESDAY, MAY 18 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) April 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) April 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index May THURSDAY, MAY 19 8:30 am Initial jobless claims May 14 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims May 7 10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) April FRIDAY, MAY 20 8:30 am Advance services report Q1
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
Unchartered Territory-TNXAnyone who thinks they know for sure what's going to happen in this market should follow price action very, very closely. TNX just closed the month of March by very bullishly crossing the monthly cloud. Since the 1980's interest rates have been in a down trend. TNX could have crossed the monthly cloud bullishly on a couple of occasions but it never had the power to do what it did this month. What happens now? Here are the times TNX could have had the strength to cross the monthly cloud bullishly but it got rejected: Here is this months action: Looking at it from a different angle...below is the monthly chart of ZN. When interest rates rise, ZN futures goes down. Does a 6% Interest Rate sound crazy? Don't break that neckline!
TVC:TNXLong
by Vixtine
7
TNX - Daily / The Break of SymmetrySince July we began suggesting the ROC large break in early 2021 was a precursor to a decades-long reversal in the Bond Market. A Historic event seemingly lost on Convention. The longer-term downtrend can easily be observed in both Weekly and Monthly Charts - within those 2 TF's you will see the Long Term Channels UTL. ______________________________________________________________________ I pay a great deal of attention to Symmetry and Time, as it is as important as Price. ______________________________________________________________________ We can see in the chart above, 10 Year Yields decisively broke out as our pivot for higher was 1.961. Initially, it was front-run by 1 Pip during the Pre-Open - for bonds the action begins at 8 AM EST. The rest is history. Extensions will trade into March IMHO. Buyers since the FAKE 153 TOSS have been beaten down. Many are still insisting on remaining in the Bid, Buy the Dippers @ 153 / 151 / 149 / 147 / 143 / 142 / 139 / 136 continue to walk themselves into continuing losses. The Waffle House opened for Drive-Thru and the parking lot pileup ensued. ________________________________________________________________________ Forward CASH is not only being discounted for 007s, but for Corporate Jumbos aka Mega Caps. A clear sign of Depression 10X from August 2020 - a leading indicator by 18 months historically. Right on TIME - March 2022. __________________________________________________________________________ You cannot fix stupid you can, however - you can take it's $. Rates will continue to persist to the Larger time frames @ 3.5%. This is the point of truncation late this year when 5/5 concludes for the Equity Complex at New ATHs. Even the TLT baggies will gain small relief as all JUNK is hoisted higher in one final Tulip Phase. A multi-year Bear Market will ensue, collaterals will be "Reset" and Bonds, as we long warned become perpetual. Fluidity / Mobility matter most. Unfortunately, the vast majority will remain snared.
T
by HK_L61
Bond s may bounce, yields may come downThe 10yr bond market continued to fall today as yields broke the 2% level, highest levels since 2019. The market has been laser focused on the "2%" level in recent months. If you look at the 10yr bonds futures market, the ZN, the bonds have traded down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 lows to 2020 highs. This is a key level of support longer term. The triangle pattern max target has nearly been reached too. Since this level is so big (technically) we'd assume there would be a bounce/consolidation near these levels as the bond market also completed an ab=cd pattern. If you are short bonds, You should take note. This was discussed on yesterday's "Trade Off" show hosted by Pepperstone Securities. 
CBOT:ZN1!
by ForexAnalytix
TNX - 10Yr Yields Sell Offers and Bond VX / Trouble Bond Bagholders just never learn - this Secular Cult is doomed to extinction. The two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest single-day jump since the market volatility of March 2020. Of course, this was after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell promoted the Policy Flip Flop that the Fed will raise rates in March, and left the screen porch door open for a quicker than-anticipated pace of rate increases. The Dot Plot is wiggling in excitement. IN reality, the FED will begin to Temper expectations. It is what they do - Lie Cheat Steal / Delay. 10 Yr Yields have seen another fantastic ROC-driven Spike which advanced well ahead of the Pre-Spring Meltup in 2021. __________________________________________________________________ TNX will provide a very large indication as to how the preset Wedge on the ES/NQ resolve, likely this week... Keep it in purview at all times, sudden violent reactions are to be expected.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
ZN - 10 Year Note Futures / An important ChartThe importance of ZN as an Instrument cannot be overstated. It has been extremely technical and Reliable in assisting us in forecasting Rate Mid Curve and provided the ROC's for TNX. Today's MAcro Data begins with the CPI @ 8:30 AM EST using the new Base Effect from the BLS. ______________________________________________________ CPI is projected to be 4%. Food prices have already increased substantially into 2022 as we indicated Mid-Q4 2021 - Pordiucer were going to begin passing along increases at an average rate of 20-23%. Energy continues to Rise as do Commodities, on balance, across the Board. M2 continues to move higher, as does the Fed's Balance Sheet. _______________________________________________________ The reaction to the CPI this morning will provide direction for the Indexes the balance of the week. Pricing Power is being passed along to end-users (consumers) at a time when the Federal Reserve is indicating they are about to begin an aggressive reduction in Liquidity and an accelerated pace of increases to the Fed Funds Rate. We have seen back to back ALGO driven increases in the ES / NQ / YM and indicated 10 Yr Yields would pullback ~ 1.81% (1.808 was close enough). 2021/2022 measured move is now .998 to 1.808 - a near doubling of the Mid Curve. ________________________________________________________ The Bond "safety" Trade wasn't entirely wrong until the Curve began to work its magic. We indicated in July Rates would begin rising again into the end of 2021. Where the Bond Buters lost sight of the Safety Trade was quite simple - Convention holds only when the Yield Curve is steepening. As YCC gave way to a FED backstop where the recycling ballooned the Fed's Balance Sheet and Auction after failed Auctions began to appear beginning at the long end of the Curve. My Thesis proved 100% correct, then as now. We anticipate a reaction to Mid Curve on today's ReCalc. Safe Trading.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
2
TLT - 20Yr Bond ETFThe Monthly Chart continues to expand in Range. This is interesting as the Range Broadens the implications are quite Dire longer term. TLT was sold heavily prior to the ROC SPike in TNX. ZN was sold on Volume as well, an Instrument we have repeatedly discussed for its weakening structure. __________________________________________________________ Attempting to apply "Convention and Rationale" to an aging Trend is generally, an Idea whose validity should begin to come into question. FASB 56 alone is enough to bring the operations within the Shadows of the Bond Market under duress over time. It is clear the BIS is backstopping this operation - at what cost, we can only surmise. ___________________________________________________________ The Real Issue moving forward for the Bond Complex is one of simplicity. Rates will, in the Short Ter react to Policy and the perceived threat of Inflation. Shadow Operations will require time to unfold, but we believe this process has begun, it will not be brought into he light of Day any time soon, but will eventually, appear in the form of unexplained loss of confidence around the Globe. This will, of course, be devastating to the US Dollar. rendering it a 50 Level once 82 and then 77 are broken. _____________________________________________________________ The competition between China and the United States is well underway and is accelerating on many fronts. With the US Losing its advantages due to its inability to produce Value across former dominant Sectors of Global Trade - a 22nd Century pivot to Asia will continue to gain in both scope and scale, as well as velocity. Financial Isolationism within the approaching rebalancing of Global financial Arrangements will render the US to a weighted SDR status with less than favorable terms and conditions. This will have a devastating effect on the US Bond Market. The curve will be converted to a Perpetual Duration with Principals retired. A balance sheet liability which cannot be reduced without far greater and far more insidious distortions. It can never be eliminated. Never, it is not mathematically possible. Therefore it will be erased to bring balance. Think of it as the FDIC/SPIC coming to save $250K of your $20 Million. You lose, they win. They default in an extraordinary manner and provide token assurance that... one day... they swear to make you whole. It will never happen. ___________________________________________________________ This is axiomatic, pure, and simple. Regardless of the Gyrations... The Future is not "Uncertain" with respect to Bonds and how they will be all but eliminated.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61