Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Impulsive DeclineElliott Wave View in 10-year Note (ZN_F) suggests that the Note has ended the cycle from June 5 low as wave (1). From there, the Note can do a pullback in 3 waves to correct that cycle. Down from August 5 high, wave ((i)) ended at 140 low. The bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 140.13 high. The Note then resumed lower in wave ((iii)), which ended at 139 low. The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 139.27 low and wave (ii) bounce ended at 140.01 high. The decline then resumed lower in wave (iii) and ended at 139.07 low. This is followed by wave (iv) bounce, which ended at 139.17 high. Wave (v) then extended lower and ended at 139 low.
Afterwards, the Note bounce higher in wave ((iv)), which unfolded as a double correction. Wave ((iv)) ended at 139.14 high. From there, the Note has resumed lower again. Currently, wave ((v)) is still in progress. The Note can see a few more lows but it should be ending wave ((v)) and wave A in higher degree soon. This will be followed by a bigger bounce in wave B before resuming lower again in wave C. While below 140.13 high, expect the bounces in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside.
ZN1!
TLT / Treasuries are breaking out post FOMCThe chart on the right represents 30 year treasury bonds. The chart on the left is TLT, an ETF that expresses a trade in treasury bonds.
The way to profit most is probably via call options on TLT. I am looking at the 172 strike in August.
The other way is to be long futures. I am long ZB1! futures contract. The negative is the minimum size is $181,000. So for most retail traders, call options on TLT is the best way to play the long here. Owning TLT outright eats a lot of capital for low return.
Here is the long term chart of 30 year treasuries:
Other ways to play this:
5 year treasuries ZF1! (125k contract but much less volatile)
10 year treasuries ZN1! (140k contract with more vol than the 5 year but about 1/4th the vol of the 30 year.
Break of trading Range + huge volumesI publish this Idea to reinforce my previous analysis on this market, by looking at it from a large perspective.
Since a breaking of a trading Range, the ZN (10 year T-note) reaches a new historical high. the breaking of the rectangle has been done by a huge volume (17 M).
However, obviously, I expect the market could slow down if volumes aren't helping the ascending behavior.