ZN1!
ZN1!: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
ZN1!
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short ZN1!
Entry - 110.57812
Sl - 111.875000
Tp - 108.640625
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from higher levels.
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Bonds Recover After CPIBonds took a dive to break lows and hit our target of 110'05. A green triangle on the KRI confirmed support and we immediately the dip was immediately bought back, and we recovered the range between 110'27 and 111'26. We are currently hugging the upper bound of this range. The move followed yet another hotter than expected CPI print and a slump in retail sales. The Kovach OBV is slumping, so we expect the range to hold as the markets digest this data.
Bond Market Gains from Risk Off ToneBonds appear to be gaining strength as yields relax and the US dollar pulls back hard. The Kovach OBV is edging up, but we have resistance confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI at current relative highs. We appear to be seeing a bull wedge forming, in an attempt to break through 113'00. If so, then 113'12 will be the next target. If not, we will find support again at 111'26.
The Bond Market Reacts to the FOMCBonds have slid further and there is no relief rally insight. The markets were hoping for a 'dovish hike' in the sense that the 75 bps hike would be followed by dovish rhetoric. In fact it was the opposite. Yields have maintained highs pressing prices further down. We are hugging 113'12 and expect support there. If not, we will use Fibonacci extension levels to determine support levels further down. Our targets are 115'03 and 115'29 if we get our relief rally.
Why Bonds Might Be Nearing LowsBonds have continued their decline as the markets price in a potentially historic FOMC rate hike this week. Inflation data suggests that the Fed's rate hike trajectory is not really working and inflation is still soaring. On the other hand, multiple indicators suggest that we are in a recession, and the Fed will have to pivot their hawkish stance after this last rate hike. If that is the case, then we expect the bond market to be nearing lows. We have one more technical level before we will have to start using inverse Fibonacci extension levels to predict lows in bonds again, as 113'12 is our last technical level. The Kovach OBV also appears to be leveling off. The next targets from above are 115'03 and 115'29.
Bond Market Continues to Price In Hawkish FedBonds have picked up slightly edging above 115'29. ZN had teetered about this level, breaking below it yesterday, but finding support. We did make a run for the next level at 116'20, but rejected this level, and found support again at 115'20. There is a stronger chance of a 75bps rate hike, which is pushing up yields. If we fall further, then 115'03 is the next target.
Bond Market Reacts to Nonfarm and FedBonds fell again, hitting our next target at 115'29. Yields are creeping up as the markets are pricing in the next rate hike, expected to be 50-75 bps . Nonfarm payrolls gave us some insight into economic conditions: unemployment rose to 3.7%, with a headline miss and downward revision. This suggests that the economy is weakening further, and we are in a period of stagflation. Yields subsequently weakened and we are seeing a slight pivot off 1529. If we rally, we could hit 116'20 or even 117'08. If the figures are hotter than expected it should bolster the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and we could break through 115'29, to 115'03.
Potential Long on GOLD after nice pullback. I've managed to catch a nice pullback on gold and expected the bearish will soon. Next, we are expecting gold to continue on bullish movement as it finishes doing some pullback.
There are pretty interesting key levels to watch especially on a daily timeframe and we need to pay extra attention to this key level to whether gold will continue downward or start to climb back as on rejection on the weekly trendline (blue line).
Overall I am biased on bullish on gold. Levels of entry SL and TP are as on the chart.
Trade safe and take care everyone.