ZN1!
10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!) DailyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!) WeeklyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
10 YEAR T-NOTES FUTURES (ZN1!) MonthlyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) in Impulsive RallyShort term Elliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests the rally from December 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Up from December 13, 2019 low, wave ((1)) ended at 131.29 and wave ((2)) pullback ended at 130.07. Wave ((3)) rally then ended at 136.23 and this can be seen in the 1 hour chart below. Wave ((3)) shows a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((1)) and the internal subdivides in a clear impulsive structure in lesser degree.
Up from wave ((2)) at 130.07, wave (1) ended at 130.28, wave (2) ended at 130.21, wave (3) ended at 135.24, wave (4) ended at 134.09, and wave (5) ended at 136.23. This completed wave ((3)). The Notes should now pullback in wave ((4)) to correct cycle from February 6 low before the rally resumes. Wave ((4)) pullback ideally doesn’t go below 50% retracement of wave ((3)) which is 133.14. Possible target for wave ((4)) is 23.6 – 38.2% retracement of wave ((3)) which comes at 134.06 – 135.04. Near term, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside. As far as pivot at 130.2 low stays intact, expect the Notes to extend higher.
Why I'm bullish 10 year treasuries bondsThis chart displays some convincing reasons to be long treasuries in a portfolio. Bonds and stocks could trade higher (together) over the long term... but treasuries are generally a safe haven asset that provide a good hedge against downside. Regardless of the implication, the price action in treasuries screams bullish to me.
𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TLT Daily. Move Hitting Target AreaOver 150 today! Coming into a major decade long TL near 152-153. Nice trade if took the setup
Chart of the Day: UST10 make or break it at $132Another Monday and another make it or break it level, this time with UST10 futures at $132:-
--> $ZN1! is making at 3rd attempt to test overhead resistance at $132. Why is this a crucial resistance? This resistance line is created by joining the 2012 and 2016 peaks. If you recall, 2012 and 2016 marked the troughs for the European Debt Crisis (& started massive global QE) and the oil crisis respectively.
--> the most recent candle is not fully formed yet but as of now, it looks like a gap up shooting star and US equity markets are sitting on support levels.
--> However, the impact of the Coronavirus is real, so is this THE Zombie apocalypse that finally tips equity markets off its rocker and push UST to new highs?
Fortunes are made at inflection points and fortunes have been lost at inflection points. Stay tuned!
AbsurdityMore sideways is highly highly unlikely. Boom or bust! US market cap to GDP 157% (LOL). Perhaps the most ridiculous thing of the last 11 years is when the moving monkeys on CNBC repeat "this time is different".
For that to be true, the market should have no problem going to 180% of GDP. Think about that. Good luck.
Yields rise, it tightens credit conditions. Equity falls.
Yields fall, its a deflationary feedback loop. Equity falls.
Good luck everyone. Be careful.
10 year t note futures ANALYSIS NUMBER 42
Positive convergence with gold index Contrary to stock index
