ZN1!
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes Remain SupportedElliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests that it has a bullish sequence from October 2018 low, favoring more upside. Near term, rally to 140.24 ended wave I and pullback to 133.2 ended wave II. Internal of wave II unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 140.24, wave ((W)) ended at 135.25 and bounce in wave ((X)) ended at 138.3. The next leg lower in wave ((Y)) ended at 133.22 which also completed wave II.
The Notes has turned higher in wave III. However, it needs to break above wave I at 140.24 to avoid a double correction. Up from 133.2, wave (1) ended at 135.3 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 134.18. The Notes then extended higher in wave (3) towards 138, and wave (4) pullback ended at 137.06. Finally, wave (5) of ((1)) is proposed complete at 138.18.
The Notes is now within wave ((2)) to correct cycle from March 19 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing and while the pullback stays above there, expect the Notes to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Notes. Potential target higher is 100% – 123.5% Fibonacci extension from October 2018 low which comes at 142.28 – 146.1 area.
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes Remain SupportedElliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests that it has a bullish sequence from October 2018 low, favoring more upside. Near term, rally to 140.24 ended wave I and pullback to 133.2 ended wave II. Internal of wave II unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 140.24, wave ((W)) ended at 135.25 and bounce in wave ((X)) ended at 138.3. The next leg lower in wave ((Y)) ended at 133.22 which also completed wave II.
The Notes has turned higher in wave III. However, it needs to break above wave I at 140.24 to avoid a double correction. Up from 133.2, wave (1) ended at 135.3 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 134.18. The Notes then extended higher in wave (3) towards 138, and wave (4) pullback ended at 137.06. Finally, wave (5) of ((1)) is proposed complete at 138.18.
The Notes is now within wave ((2)) to correct cycle from March 19 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing and while the pullback stays above there, expect the Notes to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Notes. Potential target higher is 100% – 123.5% Fibonacci extension from October 2018 low which comes at 142.28 – 146.1 area.
𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TLT Daily. Rates Double Dip?Exploded higher than I thought and the pullback to test ~139 was also very quick. #Rates may double dip as #Fed suppresses
$ZB_F $ZN_F $TNX $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F $GLD $DXY #Bonds
10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!) DailyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!) WeeklyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
10 YEAR T-NOTES FUTURES (ZN1!) MonthlyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) in Impulsive RallyShort term Elliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests the rally from December 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Up from December 13, 2019 low, wave ((1)) ended at 131.29 and wave ((2)) pullback ended at 130.07. Wave ((3)) rally then ended at 136.23 and this can be seen in the 1 hour chart below. Wave ((3)) shows a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((1)) and the internal subdivides in a clear impulsive structure in lesser degree.
Up from wave ((2)) at 130.07, wave (1) ended at 130.28, wave (2) ended at 130.21, wave (3) ended at 135.24, wave (4) ended at 134.09, and wave (5) ended at 136.23. This completed wave ((3)). The Notes should now pullback in wave ((4)) to correct cycle from February 6 low before the rally resumes. Wave ((4)) pullback ideally doesn’t go below 50% retracement of wave ((3)) which is 133.14. Possible target for wave ((4)) is 23.6 – 38.2% retracement of wave ((3)) which comes at 134.06 – 135.04. Near term, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside. As far as pivot at 130.2 low stays intact, expect the Notes to extend higher.
Why I'm bullish 10 year treasuries bondsThis chart displays some convincing reasons to be long treasuries in a portfolio. Bonds and stocks could trade higher (together) over the long term... but treasuries are generally a safe haven asset that provide a good hedge against downside. Regardless of the implication, the price action in treasuries screams bullish to me.
