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ZN1!

Will the markets meltdown and hammer the bulls as yields rallyThe action has been very heavy this week and major indexes have been pressured lower. There is a lot for bulls to think about and many will be getting nervous. Will the FED come to the rescue again??....and will the Dip Buyers provide support again. In the video I take a look at my key markets and how I am approaching the current market action. I look at US 10-year bonds, the USD, SP500, DOW, Nasdaq and the ASX200.
CBOT:ZN1!
by TradeTheStructure
Stocks - SPX 1M Outlook - Trouble AheadBrief for SPX: - Weakness in price due to Quad Witching ahead of FOMC. Controversy in taper announcement as ECB has done. - Technical weakness in price, as it has fallen out of a rising wedge and as of yet, failed to make a quick recovery to ATHs as usual. Price closed in a DCF, indicating weakness in the dominant cycle. - Fears of real estate market collapse in China, with global implications (there are US counterparties involved). However, it has yet proven to be anything more than an isolated event. Cyclicality: - SPX facing headwinds of seasonal decline. - Expecting DCL in early October, a bit of a rally to a DCH and choppy markets in mid-late October, then a greater selloff into the end of October in the seasonal trough, where an ICL may be made into an end of year rally. Macro Layer: - Inflation expectations continue to decline globally: fred.stlouisfed.org - Yield curve continues to flatten, despite real rates getting a slight reprieve. - Dollar and gold showing risk-off. Debt Ceiling: (Opinion) - Interestingly, October Treasury Note Futures trading at a slight discount to September, or December. This indicates that there is some risk-off on the notes regarding the debt ceiling, but nobody expects the debt ceiling to not be raised. The US government had shut down for 35 days at the end of 2018 due to debt ceiling disagreements, so I think this is a legitimate concern and could be (a largely perception-based) catalyst for a sizable pullback. - If we take a look at 2018's correction, it began with the Sept Quad witching as well. A very similar setup to now, which is of concern: - 3700 is an area of Demand which would correspond to such a pullback, while 4290-4400 is the mid-year Pivot Range which should be watched closely. Treasury Note Futures: Key Points: - Seasonality. - Debt ceiling decision approaching, media is still buzzing about Evergrande but the narrative to form around our trade should be Evergrande > FOMC > Debt ceiling > Then perhaps the US-China Trade Deal for the EOM October ICL. Strategies: - Unilateral: Bearish/short until proven otherwise. - Intraday: Volatility expected, look for bullish reversal signs. GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
Futures Levels | Week Ahead Sept 19 (ES, YM, NQ, RTY, ZN, GC)Yoooo Speculators - let's look at some levels in the futures stock indices following a telegraphed week of selling into last Friday's quad witching. Overall, the markets have cooperated with our most recent analysis that suggested shorts in the NQ and ZB. Now, I'm gonna go out on a pretty firm limb (you know, since markets never go down), and say that we're probably close to the end of the selling in this cycle. FOMC policy statement on Wed. Trade Like You Mean It!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RodCasilli
ZN1! uptrend soon?Since the spectacular crash beginning in mid-Feb on fears of rate hike, seems like 10yr Treasury futures have found a bottom at around 130'27, and could be ready for a move up. Movement since Feb 2021 While the chart showed some cracks since around 11 Feb (following a false double bottom in the daily chart), the big drop took place on 26 Feb, by closing 47 points below previous close at 133'21.5. Since then, each subsequent wave has been shallower, with bottom found at around 130'27. and it is now ~1.4 dollars higher at 132'09. I would say the aforementioned bottom has been confirmed as price had rebounded to above the 10sma and 20sma, albeit retraced slightly after approaching the 40sma. What next? Imo the 10yr UST futures may pull back further to around 131'21 (ie below the 10 and 20sma), before starting an uptrend move. I would say 134 before end of May seems plausible at this juncture. Would consider my view a fail if price drops below 131'15 and no rebound thereafter. Let's see.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by Kangkung88