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Short Bonds & Long Copper | Copper/Gold vs. 10yr YieldsIt looks like the Bond market hasn't priced in growth or we're going to see a nasty reversion trade in the materials sector and a bond pop. The Copper / Gold pair is a great proxy for inflation due to the divergent properties of the 2 metals. Copper is purely an industrial metal and a proxy for inflationary growth so the 10yr reacts correspondingly. Gold, on the other hand is a precious metal and trades similar to a monetary instrument and is loosely correlated to the long-end from the inverse yield relationship.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by mattcook
USDJPY to Resume LowerThe USDJPY has been in a downtrend on the daily chart and held the 112 area 3 times. We have now retested that level and at the .886 fib level of the last leg. Also, we closed as a daily pin bar as well. I am short now expecting prices to reach new lows, but will keep my profit target open. If you're interested in signals email me at adrielarrasmith@gmail.com. Also, read my article below about 50% returns a year investing in some small funds I found, anyhows.com
Short
by adriel.arrasmith
10 Year T-Note Futures: Uptrend in motionWe have a strong uptrend signal in treasury notes and potential for a big upside move. I'm currently long $TMF, as my proxy for this move, since $TLT was lower than 10 Year Note futures, offering a more interesting risk/reward (as per Tim West's posts). Right now, I think the move to the upside is confirmed, so, if you're not in, you could look into buying either instrument on dips. Stop losses can be tight, but you're better off without one, and simply adjusting size based on volatility (1-3 times the daily ATR -11 periods- for your 'stop' distance, and thus size to fit your risk criteria). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZNH2017Long
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Potential for uptrend continuation, target pendingThere is one weekly target that hasn't been hit yet, and I suspect we might hit it very soon, so I'm willing to risk taking a long position here, with 23 point downside risk. Let's see if we can attain the weekly 'Time at mode' target before our stop loss gets hit. You can risk between 0.5 and 1% on this trade, and then look to add as it moves in profit, further confirming the thesis. If we get stopped, we might get a new chance to long next week. I'll update the chart as we move forward. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
3
#Dollar Showing Weakness, Intermediately OverboughtThe U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data. However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart, and potential signals of another move downward are pending: The daily RSI has broken through an indicator support level, and the stochastic indicator is signaling a highly overbought condition. If price price action continues to falter, a sell signal below 80 could trigger selling pressure. The DMI is about to form a bearish convergence, which would indicated bearish price action will take over. In order to regain upward momentum, the DXY would have to close above channel resistance near 95.66; 96.55 will be key resistance point in order to challenge 98. If selling pressure does occur, DXY will likely seek out 93.80 (50% fib retracement from current minor uptrend) The long-term macro dollar theme continues to be deflationary. It is important to note, a spike in inflation has been a late cycle occurrence. Every U.S. recession since the mid-1950s has seen an increase in inflation (after previously declining). We must also include that as the global economy continues to slow, global central banks will look to continue monetary easing this will at least support the greenback. Furthermore, as the U.S. economy rolls over, a deflationary spiral is expected to occur. MacroView is still expecting the U.S. economy to reach recession between Q2-3 once final data revisions occur. If you would like to know more about MacroView's products and services, please feel free to message us. As always, comment and post charts. We love to talk markets!
TVC:DXY
by MacroView_Research
1
Downside Risk Potential For The EuroThere is downside risk for the euro as price action for EURUSD failed to close above 1.1342, essentially creating an asymmetric double top with the fizzled mid-February rally. The pair looks to fade back to the 200-day EMA near 1.1108. The rally in the dollar following its steep declines last week could cause a more pronounced slide as long as the DXY remains supported (92.50 remains a key near-term support level). Next, traders are saw bunds bid while the U.S. 10Y remained rather muted, causing spreads to become the widest since last December. The U.S. 10Y has held a relatively strong negative correlation with the dollar index going back to last August. If the dollar remains supported, there will likely be dampened demand for U.S. paper outside of any significant headline risk that could spark demand. If price action does not confirm a downtrend break above 1.1342, the euro will likely slide against the dollar and challenge the minor uptrend created in December. S/R levels remain key targets for advancement and pullbacks. Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
The Dollar Paradox Pt. 1: Unintended ConsequencesIt is clear that the U.S. dollar has been one of the biggest hedge fund crowded trades, and still remains despite recent pullbacks in the greenback. And, although, the DXY saw a violent decent following last week's dovish FOMC-minutes report, there is still an underlying dynamic that supports a much higher dollar. History may not repeat, but it often rhymes. And, those who look back into historical context for potential clues of today should find interest in the "Law of Unintended Consequences." This concept dates back to John Locke, who discussed the unintended consequences of interest rate regulation in his letter to Sir John Somers, Member of Parliament during the 17th century. In 1936, socialogist Robert K. Merton wrote "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purpose Social Action," which discussed unintended consequences of deliberate acts intended to cause social change. We don't have to look any further to globalized manipulation of interest rates by central banks with the sole purpose to deliberately change actions (or inaction) of consumers. Low interest rates have been designed to force those into riskier assets who may not have accumulated previously. The suppression has also "enticed" individuals to buy homes, cars, take on student loans and other interest rate sensitive loans to unsustainable levels, essentially robbing tomorrow's growth to consume today. Furthermore, market participants are underestimating the ongoing global currency debasement on the race to zero. Since the financial crisis - on a global scale - there has been $12.3 trillion (and growing) in quantitative easing and 650-plus (and growing) rate cute. Yet, central banks are unwilling to admit their policies have failed. And they won't. In Merton's paper, he stated that ignorance stems from unintended consequences. Those that are objective ponder why economists are consistently wrong and never forecast recessions (Fed included). There is a degree of ignorance that shields them off from from anticipating the potential from future events, thus this leaves their analysis incomplete. Moreover, short-term interests are clearly overtaking long-term interests. As former Dallas Fed Reserve Bank President Dick Fisher has stated on TV numerous times, the Federal Reserve front-loaded risk appetite in order to develop a "wealth effect." Instead of focusing on longer-term solutions for the growth of American, it was imperative for the Fed to spoon feed quantitative easing to investment banks and their crony peers. The hubristic nature of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi or Haruhiko Kuroda in believing they can manipulate "free" markets like a volume dial on a radio is foolhardy and create unintended consequences that will cause a panic buying of the global reserve currency, the U.S. dollar. Stay tuned for additional Dollar Paradox additions. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
TVC:DXY
by CommoditiesTrader
6
Gold to $8,000?Despite what so-called gold bugs have been trying to predict for years, it still remains seen how valuable the most "hated" asset on Wall Street can be. Calls of $10- or $50,000 gold have made headlines and often laughs, but when investors take into account the supporting fundamentals, gold can be extremely beneficial during these centrally-planned economies. Recently, Pierre Lassonde said that gold could have the potential to reach $8,000 per ounce when looking at the gold-to-Dow ratio. He mentions how tangible assets tend to regain parity after previous bull-markets, and the potential for his forecast is supported if the gold-to-Dow ratio his .5 while expressing that the quick and expansive adaptation of NIRP will fuel the fire. As central banks continue to ease ($12.3 trillion in quantitative easing and 650 rate cuts since the financial crisis), there is a potential for a prolonged bull market in gold. As I noted in "Demand for Gold Rockets Higher ," if the renewed momentum were to match nominal gains investors seen between 2009-2011, spot prices would near $2,230 - which is not $8,000 but very respectable. The 1.61 Fib. extension from the current multi-year low and the 2011 high is $2,460. In " Gold Looks Promising Long Term ," I posted last February that the longer-term outlook for the yellow metal remains in tact. Price action continued to trend in the descending channel until it bottomed in December. What strengthens the cased for renewed optimism is that price action convincingly broke out of the descending channel and back above the 2003 trend line. In " Gold to Retest $1,130 as Dollar Strengthens ," I pointed out last March that the dollar strengthening is trouble and the velocity of such would be meaningful. As we've seen throughout last year, U.S. multinationals have been crushed due to the strength in the DXY, I also pointed out the descending wedge on the daily chart, which is a bullish reversal pattern. After finding support where I thought the last line of defense was before $1,000 oz., gold rallied hard and broke out. However, even through wedges are strong indicators of price reversals, the real test is that price tends to quickly retest the broken resistance. If that hold, it could be off to the races. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
Gold Intraday TechnicalsGold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months. After gold volatility hit multi-year highs, it is beginning to moderate a bit. I expect it to remain elevated: Technically, gold downside may remain limited with minor trend and price support at $1,205 and dynamic support at the 72-4H EMA nearing $1,198. Deeper support levels are seen at $1,190 and $1,177. Volume has tapered off since the Feb. 11 high, but positive bars still remain on top. Near-term resistance can be seen at $1,214, while stronger resistance is $1,220. If gold can retake these levels, price action would challenge the recent downtrend from the recent high. At that point, bulls can look toward $1,240. What has been beneficial is that gold has been able to work off its highly overbought level while still remaining about key support. This Friday, traders are anticipating the US preliminary GDP print. Consensus is at a nauseating .4 percent, following Q4 .7 percent that is likely to be revised lower. Even if the prelim data meets consensus, it would be over two percent lower than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. Not only is it ironic that the Federal Reserve's first rate high in seven years was in a corporate profits recession and sub-one percent growth, but it also could have been done going into a recession. Way to go, Janet! Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
FX:XAUUSD
by CommoditiesTrader
HYG Leading SPY Lower?Junk bonds are typically just that - junk. But, the iShares High Yield Corporate has been one of those crowded trades that just do not die. After witnessing the immaculate short squeeze from 1,864, the SPX staged an impressive rebound. But as I mentioned earlier today (on my InvestFeed - link below), the SPY is looking weak, and the ADX, which measures trend strength, is beginning to fall. This is interesting because HYG tends to flow with the SPX (and SPY). As equities had a sharp correction so does high-yield The opposite is also true, and junk bonds rallied along side equities. SPY also acts more "violently" when prices diverge greatly. According to ETF Daily News, roughly $10.7 billion was injected into U.S. equity ETFs last month, while $8.3 billion of inflows were seen in U.S. corporate bond ETFs - the largest monthly inflow recorded. HYG took in just over $5.5 billion. This is important because today's trader shows the epitome of herd behavior: all cramming into a few trade ideas. So, when that idea doesn't material, traders flee and the response is not exactly orderly. Price action is on a few minor support levels, but there is bearish EMA, RSI and DMI momentum. ADX looks to be moving upwards supporting negative price action. If the SPY breaks down lower (I'm expecting mid-160k NFP tomorrow), this could spell trouble for HYG. CommoditiesTrader now on InvestFeed: beta.investfeed.com Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
AMEX:HYG
by CommoditiesTrader
4
Gold Surprises as Dollar Gets Monkey-Hammered LowerIn " Gold Leaps Higher as Worries Mount ," I briefly pointed out how those very same institutions that championed quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve are now coming out to proclaim quantitative easing added no substantial benefit to the real economy . Gold was pushed lower on the assumption that central banking policy would all pan out and that the U.S. would finally achieve escape velocity; but the exact opposite is occurring. Despite the near 12 to 16 months of absolutely horrendous, even recessionary data, market participants believed that if the Fed began to tighten monetary policy then the economy must be alright. Central bankers,misguided by classroom academics and abhorrent to real world economic dynamics, believe that if you tinker with interest rates that somehow inflation will magically begin to rise. Not so because it is real, meaningful growth that produces inflation; and it is more evident now that the these policies do not produce meaningful growth. I mapped out the dollar's downward trajectory, which was largely based on the floundering economy and the inability for the Fed to take action that will pop asset inflation. I still believe this is based on the above factors and that the dollar will likely gather strength as the US slips into deflation. Traders and CNBC pundits think that if deflation takes hold then gold will surely decline into the abyss. And just like their "lower gas prices equal booming consumer spending" myth, gold falling off a cliff during deflation is just as preposterous. Gold is unique in that if can act like an insurance policy against both sides of tail risk (inflation and deflation). It is well-known that gold had a massive bull run when stagflation took hold of the US during the 1970s. Inflation ran amok. However, nobody mentions that gold tripled, in inflation-adjusted dollar terms, during the early 1930s (the Great Depression) prior to President Roosevelt outlawing the private ownership of gold. As I wrote last April: " There is an assumption that the dollar and gold’s performance is strictly inverse of one another, but that is not so. The WGC (World Gold Council) indicates that between early 2014 and March 20, 2015, the dollar has gained over 20 percent while gold only fell 1.2 percent. Historically, gold prices more than double on a weak dollar than it falls on a stronger dollar. Thus, a stronger dollar is not indicative of massive gold depreciation. When the dollar declines, gold has appreciated 14.9 percent. Yet, when the dollar strengthens, gold has only fallen by 6.5 percent, according to the WGC. " If you look at this chart, you will notice one thing: gold sure looks to trend with the SPX. There is an argument that this due to simple asset inflation. Notice the massive divergence began when gold began to top in 2011. The divergence is what I call the "perception" gap. I expect that divergence to close. It's no secret that I was right about the volatility of 2015, along with other key macro trends. I believe by the end of 2016 and 2017 is when the real fireworks begin. Gold's recent move has been huge, and, of course, there will be profit taking. But those who follow me know that the underlying fundamentals for gold has been strengthening for some time. (Note: the gold chart is the same I used in the above mentioned gold idea, but the minor uptrend (along with new resistance) were added). Please follow me @lemieux_26 and check out my other ideas, which have links to previous writings.
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
11
U.S. Dollar Awaits FOMC DecisionSome say this week's FOMC decision will be of historical proportions and be the first time the Federal Reserve will increase the Fed funds rate in almost a decade. The U.S. dollar index is in a descending trend. Price action is floating above the minor trend created by the top on April 13. The dollar has not been able to see any significant support higher, likely due to the uncertainty about the Fed's policy. The economy is clearly slowing down, and the Fed has never hiked rates into a slowing economy. Furthermore, financial conditions are already tightening in the wake of a potential boost - if we can call it that -in interested rates. According to Goldman Sachs' financial conditions index, which incorporates equity prices, exchange rates, credit spreads and a slew of other factors, hit the highest level in five years. In regards to what is already occurring with a stronger dollar, increase in borrowing costs and declining asset prices, the market is already undergoing what feels like a 75 bps increase; a 25 bps hike from the Fed would only add insult to injury. Technically, rallies in the dollar have been sold. Price action did see significant pressure in late August and broke key technical support. There was support near 92.50, but the mere close below signals the potential for further weakness. If the Fed remains dovish this weak, and the FOMC minutes continue to be vague and confusing, the dollar could very well retest this year's lows. Momentum on the longer-dated charts are suggesting that upward movement is challenged, and the trend could be changing. Of course, if the Fed did come out and increased rates, the dollar would significantly strengthen. The idea that the Fed would allow that is flaw because they are begging for any sign of inflation in a deflationary world. Multinational corporations have been greatly hurt with the dollar rising against nearly all currencies, and emerging market currencies collapsing. A $3 trillion debt crisis could also occur if the Fed embarks on a path towards monetary tightening. The idea that the Fed can just tighten once and be done with it is foolish. That's not monetary normalcy, and the Fed would only prolong the inevitable. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
INDEX:DXY
by CommoditiesTrader
Gold Leaps Higher As Worries MountFollowing the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, gold has seen a massive two day move that brought the precious metal to five-week highs. Worries mount as market participants are beginning to realize that the Federal Reserve is stuck within a liquidity trap. The minutes statement indicated that the Fed saw risks to near-term inflation (as the five-year breakeven rate hit five-year lows) and growth. The once “sure bet” on a September rate hike quickly dwindled, and the possibility of another round of quantitative easing is growing. There has been a lack of attention to two key revelations within mainstream media: The Bank of International Settlements (the central bank of central banks) and the St. Louis Fed have come out publicly to express that quantitative easing has been the epitome of failure. Both institutions have stated that the massive balance sheet expansion and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) has not added any growth to the real economy. The BIS has even gone as far as to say that the world is defenseless against the next crisis, which many “Main Street” analysts believe is around the corner. In regards to a efficacy of ZIRP, the white paper publish by the St. Louis Fed said: “A Taylor-rule central banker may be convinced that lowering the central bank’s nominal interest rate target will increase inflation. This can lead to a situation in which the central banker becomes permanently trapped in ZIRP. With the nominal interest rate at zero for a long period of time, inflation is low, and the central banker reasons that maintaining ZIRP will eventually increase the inflation rate. But this never happens and, as long as the central banker adheres to a sufficiently aggressive Taylor rule, ZIRP will continue forever, and the central bank will fall short of its inflation target indefinitely. This idea seems to fit nicely with the recent observed behavior of the world ís central banks.” But, this is not just the Fed’s problem. Quantitative easing has been a failure in Japan and Europe. In a “defenseless” world and crisis looming, gold stands to greatly benefit. Price action for gold is fueled by short-covering (near-term) because the dollar just base-jumped of the hopes and expectations of a Wall Street recovery. However, as Pandora’s box is opened, gold’s upside potential becomes great. Resistance can be found at $1,162, which is slightly below the descending trend created in late January. If price action can close above these key levels, gold will attempt to challenge the 200-day EMA near $1,182. The 50 percent Fib. retracement of January’s downtrend is at $1,189. As long as the dollar remains soft, gold will be relatively supported at these levels. Although, price taking can take place and healthy. The daily RSI is approaching 69, but the weekly and monthly RSI is below 45. Moreover, the weekly chart is showing a bullish +/- DMI crossover, suggesting a potential inflection point in the most hated asset on Wall Street. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com Low cost trading solutions: www.fiverr.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
9
USDJPY To Grind Higher on Interest Rate HopesThe dollar-yen has been rather range bound, floating between 123 and 125. The U.S. dollar is likely to remain firm heading into September, as many market participants believe the Federal Reserve will finally raise the Fed funds rate for the first time since 2006. Many traders are looking at the fact that funds rate future traders are pricing in a 54 percent chance a rate hike will occur, which has dropped four percent since the non-farm payrolls were released. Here is something that suggests that does not mean anything. In 2009, Fed funds traders forecasted a 58 percent chance the Fed would hike rates in Q1 of 2010. That’s how long this Game of Bankers have been playing out. Like Monopoly, the game transcends time until players begin to loose all their money. The hope that the Fed begins to tighten policy will override the fact that Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that there is no need for additional monetary easing because he believes inflation will reach the central bank’s two percent target in 2016 – a target that has remained elusive for all easing central banks. Although it is not doubted that Kuroda actually believes a steady two-percent can be achieved, the BoJ has underwritten Japan’s massive deficit spending program and has induced severe financial repression. Despite the QE program that trumps the Fed’s, Japan’s economy remains weak and fragile. The USDJPY is approaching 125, a mark that has not been overtaken since June 5. A close about these key level should get momentum traders to flood the pair, as it did last time to push it just shy of 126. Resistance could be found at 125.38. The pair does have to close over both 125.05 price resistance and the intraday descending trend created at 125.85. If the pair is unable to do so near-term, USDJPY could trend lower to support at 124.40 and 124.15. If traders begin to think the Fed will not tighten in September, the dollar should pullback slightly. The the hope would then be pushed back to December. If dollar will remain supported in terms of the rate hike potential by the Federal Reserve, as well as the disinflationary pressure the dollar is causing by strengthening. Mark Carney, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor who had been recently hawkish, shied away from previous rhetoric on hiking rates citing the strong FX pressures and low inflation. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com Low cost trading solutions: www.fiverr.com
by CommoditiesTrader
1