Strong sell-off of US Treasuries znStrong sell-off of US Treasuries zn
Target level 126.250
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Zn1
T-BOND FUTURE analysishello friends.
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Zb ANALYSIS
easy short trade
you enter and you wait
market should continue to loose momentum
There is a strong indication of the rise of ZNThere may be a breakout for the VWAP index and we see a rise in ZN
Strong sell-off of US Treasuries znStrong sell-off of US Treasuries zn
Target level 126.250
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Bonds Ranging Between Our LevelsBonds have edged up, but as predicted, are facing resistance at 128'24. We saw a red triangle on the KRI at this level to confirm resistance. Currently, we are seeking support at 128'10, which we also anticipated. Two green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. As discussed yesterday, bonds are establishing value between 128'10 and 128'24. The Kovach OBV has edged up, but has leveled off. If ZN is able to break through 128'24, then there is a vacuum zone to 129'11. Otherwise, we should see support at 128'00.
Have Bonds Bottomed??Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we expect value to continue to form at current levels. A relief rally is not out of the question, especially after such a selloff. If so, we could make a run for the 129 handle again. There is a large vacuum zone above to 129'11, which should be considered a max upper bound at this point. The floor seems to be 128'10 for now. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so there is little hope for a genuine bull rally any time soon.
treasury bonds 30 years ANALYSISPOWERFUL ANALYSIS if the market breaks this area with an interesting volume probably we will see the market down to 155,18
Yields Soar, Treasuries Smash Lows!!Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first level in the 129's. We finally bottomed out (for now) at 129'11, one of the levels we have identified months back using inverse Fibonacci Extension levels. The Kovach OBV has fallen off a cliff with the selloff, but appears to be leveling off as the price stabilizes here. Anticipate some ranging at current levels are digested. The next level down is 128'24. If we catch a relief rally, then 129'26 should provide resistance.
Bonds Gain as Stocks Sell OffBonds have picked up as stocks have sold off due to increased risk sentiment. We have edged up to 131'02, the technical level we discussed yesterday. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, but is starting to level off as ZN finds value in the low 131 handle. We are gradually trekking up in a zig zag pattern, but will face resistance at the next technical level at 131'12. This is a relative high for December which will be difficult to break as we enter the holiday week for Christmas next week. We should have support from below at 130'26 and 130'19.
The Bond Marekt Awaits Inflation DataBonds have continued their slow decline trough support at 130'07 and are hovering just above 130'00. We are starting to see support form in the middle of the vacuum zone between these two levels, confirmed by two green triangles forming on the KRI. Both Kovach momentum indicators have dropped precipitously, which might indicate that we are staring to become oversold and that 130'00 is a floor for now. If we see a relief rally, watch 130'07 or 130'19 for a target. If we continue to decline and break 130'00 then 129'26 is the next target. ZN is likely not to make any significant moves until CPI data comes out this morning.
USDJPY Top Formation As 10 Year US Notes Are Trying To Recovery10 year US notes coming out of a channel, possibly starting to make a higher degree correction which can limit the upside for USDJPY. Nice resistance on USDJPY is at 114 where A-B-C rally can come to an end, at the former wave four, and somewhere around 50-61.8% Fib retracement levels.
Bonds Consolidate, Breakout Soon??Bonds have consolidated as we have expected. We are seeing strong support at 130'19, and appear to be forming a flag pattern bounded by 130'07, and 131'02. The Kovach OBV is trending up slightly, suggesting a small bull bias. From here it could go either way. The Fed is discussing tightening, which would be bearish for bonds, but persistent risk off sentiment due to the Omicron strain could give ZN a lift, though it appears this may be priced in by now. We will see continued support from the upper and lower bounds of the range. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit so we expect a breakout either way potentially soon.
ZN ANALYSISit touched the vwap and if the pattern and volum is green 100% will rise stay in touch and get prepared
high probality CL UP in next hours cl high probability to go up to 82 dollars
up volume
up rsi
breakout
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Bonds??Bonds have seen a bit of a relief rally as we predicted yesterday. They hit the exact target we identified, 130'00, before settling near support at 129'26. We anticipate a quiet market as we go into the US hoiday for Thanksgiving. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish, suggesting that this rally may be just a relief rally. That being said, we do have an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 130'00. If we break out further, we could easily hit 130'07, or 130'19. If the selloff continues, our next target is 129'11.
10 Year T-Note WXY PatternIn the this update we review the current cycle in the !0 Year t--Notes and identify a high probability trade location
Bearish Looking 10Y US Notes Can Push USDJPY HigherHello traders!
Today we will talk about 10Y US Notes and its negative correlation with USDJPY.
10Y US Treasury yields keeps pointing lower, as we see a bearish triangle formation within wave 4 correction that can send the price even lower for wave 5. If that's the case, then respecting correlations, USDJPY can see more gains for wave 5, as we also see a bullish triangle pattern within wave 4.
As you can see, triangle, a continuation pattern can be approaching the end, as we see the final subwave "e" in progress, so ahead of NFP report, be aware of that final 5th wave before we will see reversals.
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ZN1! is far from the support of the journal ZN1!there's a down trend on the ZN1! so we can say nothing about market revesal until the market break the first support white
in 15min A high probability of a downtrendZN takes a down position after breaking the resistance of the pitchfork
Will the markets meltdown and hammer the bulls as yields rallyThe action has been very heavy this week and major indexes have been pressured lower. There is a lot for bulls to think about and many will be getting nervous. Will the FED come to the rescue again??....and will the Dip Buyers provide support again. In the video I take a look at my key markets and how I am approaching the current market action. I look at US 10-year bonds, the USD, SP500, DOW, Nasdaq and the ASX200.
Stocks - SPX 1M Outlook - Trouble AheadBrief for SPX:
- Weakness in price due to Quad Witching ahead of FOMC. Controversy in taper announcement as ECB has done.
- Technical weakness in price, as it has fallen out of a rising wedge and as of yet, failed to make a quick recovery to ATHs as usual. Price closed in a DCF, indicating weakness in the dominant cycle.
- Fears of real estate market collapse in China, with global implications (there are US counterparties involved). However, it has yet proven to be anything more than an isolated event.
Cyclicality:
- SPX facing headwinds of seasonal decline.
- Expecting DCL in early October, a bit of a rally to a DCH and choppy markets in mid-late October, then a greater selloff into the end of October in the seasonal trough, where an ICL may be made into an end of year rally.
Macro Layer:
- Inflation expectations continue to decline globally: fred.stlouisfed.org
- Yield curve continues to flatten, despite real rates getting a slight reprieve.
- Dollar and gold showing risk-off.
Debt Ceiling:
(Opinion)
- Interestingly, October Treasury Note Futures trading at a slight discount to September, or December. This indicates that there is some risk-off on the notes regarding the debt ceiling, but nobody expects the debt ceiling to not be raised. The US government had shut down for 35 days at the end of 2018 due to debt ceiling disagreements, so I think this is a legitimate concern and could be (a largely perception-based) catalyst for a sizable pullback.
- If we take a look at 2018's correction, it began with the Sept Quad witching as well. A very similar setup to now, which is of concern:
- 3700 is an area of Demand which would correspond to such a pullback, while 4290-4400 is the mid-year Pivot Range which should be watched closely.
Treasury Note Futures:
Key Points:
- Seasonality.
- Debt ceiling decision approaching, media is still buzzing about Evergrande but the narrative to form around our trade should be Evergrande > FOMC > Debt ceiling > Then perhaps the US-China Trade Deal for the EOM October ICL.
Strategies:
- Unilateral: Bearish/short until proven otherwise.
- Intraday: Volatility expected, look for bullish reversal signs.
GLHF
- DPT
Futures Levels | Are Rates Ready To Breakout? (ZN, ZB, ZF)Rates look poised for another attempt at a breakout. Can TINA remain our favorite gal if the 10Y gets above 1.5?
Crude looks good, while the Gold blemish continues.
Fed speak after the FOMC with Yellen & Powell testimony this week. The debt ceiling and an infrastructure bill are on tap for Congress. BTC & ETH are holding up, off the lows from last week.
Futures Levels | Week Ahead Sept 19 (ES, YM, NQ, RTY, ZN, GC)Yoooo Speculators - let's look at some levels in the futures stock indices following a telegraphed week of selling into last Friday's quad witching.
Overall, the markets have cooperated with our most recent analysis that suggested shorts in the NQ and ZB. Now, I'm gonna go out on a pretty firm limb (you know, since markets never go down), and say that we're probably close to the end of the selling in this cycle.
FOMC policy statement on Wed.
Trade Like You Mean It!
