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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 10/13/16After the recent strong decline should expect a correction. The downward movement already has almost 200 pips. Resistance level of 1.1050 and 1.1079. It is worth emphasizing that when it comes to breaking the Wednesday minimum (1.1004), the supply should be directed toward support 1,0970-80 and only with this price level, we should expect a corrective movement. After completing the adjustment expect further declines. The embodiment of motion correction is denied, in the case of overcoming support at 1.0970. The next target for the supply of support is at 1.0952 and 1.0909. In the longer term, the dollar should continue to gain, due to expectations of another rate hike in the US. Further declines should be interrupted local adjustments.
by RobertPapon
EUR/USD long termThe situation on the Eurodollar market has not changed significantly, despite the recent volatility. All the time stuck in extended trading sideways around the level of 1.12, which is around 61.8% fibo increases the level of 0.8231 - 1.6038. However, there is thing I would especially like to draw attention. Looking at the graph interval of one month, we note that Eurodollar located in a triangle formation. With this in mind, and that this formation was preceded by strong declines, it seems that it should come to the bottom of issue. However, the upper limit is in the vicinity of 1,14-1,15, which is not deleted completely on the demand side. In addition, we can conclude that the last three months were characterized by the smallest range of fluctuation in the history of this currency pair. which may suggest that we are in the last phase. Breaking bottom may be preceded by increases in the level around 1.1427. Then breaking through the lower supply constraints, will open the way towards 1,0730-1,08. (Trend line growth led to the level of 0.8231). The above outline of the situation as regards the very long term. However, it has now consider what draws a Eurodollar future, in the context of the next months. This technical arrangement would be in line with the fundamental situation, which implies a further weakening of the euro against the dollar. (Further increases in US interest rates and a possible expansion of the program QE by the ECB).
Short
by RobertPapon
1
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 09/21/16The shape of the candle daily may suggest further declines, but whereas the Wednesday meeting of the FOMC, it seems more probable expectation and thus - lateral trend between 1,1149-1,1180. More likely to see declines in the evening and the movement of such could take place after the meeting of the Fed. Therefore, you should reckon with a fracture of the recent lows 1.1149 and 1,1123-30 (hole of 31 August). Further props levels are 1.1076 (23.6% fib level falls 1,11617-1,0909) and 1.1045 (minimum of 5 August). Very strong support levels zone extends between 1,0950-76. In my opinion, a variant of further declines, and supply advantage for me is the preferred option. Negating this option will transfer pigeons Fed, which will lead to strong growth towards 1.1285 and 1.1346. On Wednesday evening, after the meeting of the Federal Reserve, should expect strong fluctuations on the Eurodollar market.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 07/09/16Today there was to break above the downtrend line, drawn from the top level of 1.1617. From a technical point of view, the demand side gained an advantage, but I do not think that further increases could be continued without the abolition of part of the gains. Therefore, Wednesday's session may take for correction. In my opinion currency pair should move between levels 1,1217-63. (Alternative Version involves crossing Tuesday's rush towards 1.1288, and only at this altitude will see counterattack supply side). On Thursday, we have a conference Mario Draghi, which may lead to greater volatility and this should be taken into account in their investment strategy. (Mario Draghi could give a signal to the weakening of the single currency. If that happens, it's killing over the downtrend line will once again prove to be false).
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (05.09-09.09)Currency pair after Friday breaking above the downtrend line (drawn from the summit at the level of 1.1617), in the second part of the day back below of that line. On Monday due to the Labor Day in the US liquidity may be lower, but the demand side will try to correct some declines. Therefore, the movement toward the 1,1174-86 seems very likely. Considering the lack of data I do not think that the demand was able to bring back to above the level of 1.12. (The first important data will be released only on Tuesday). Alternate version assumes deepening declines towards 1,1123-30 and only at this altitude counterattack see the demand side. Breaking down the last support 1.1123 will signal further declines. Subjectively looking at the eurodollar market, I assume further weakening the single currency.
by RobertPapon
AUDUSD Three Drive Pattern in the makingSaw this ABCD pattern which might be heading to a Three Drive Pattern after bouncing off the .618 retracement level. I'll keep following this pair, I might go long if the price cross above .76240 but I'm mostly using it as a lab to try a couple new things. First one is using divergence when able. I don't rely on it yet to confirm my ideas, I just try to spot them and see if the market react accordingly. Once I'll be more comfortable using them I'll try to see if I can make a strategy out of it. Second one is Fibonacci time zone. Since I started trading, Fibonacci is something that really blew my mind. When I learned a few days ago that you can also use Fib retracement to see WHEN a price will move significantly I was really excited. For now I'm just using it to see how accurate that is. I'm not exactly sure yet how that will help me in my trade. Regardless, I find it neat ^^ Edit : Just realized I publish an idea a few days ago where I said we were in the 4th wave of an Elliott Wave, that would confirm the Three Drive Pattern
by Pronoe
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (29.08-02.09)On Friday, there was a strong declines. Currency Pair stopped at the support of 1.1179 (38.2% abolition of inheritance from 1,1617- 1.0909. The end of the week there was a little higher at 1.1195. Looking at the chart EURUSD in the coming hours, we can assume that the new beginning of a new week, he should bring a growth rebound Friday session. Therefore, one should expect increases toward resistance levels are located at 1,1217-45. Strong resistance will be here downtrend line (the level of 1.1617), which is located at 1.1217 and coincides with the 23.6% of the abolition of Friday's declines. In my opinion, the strength of the upward movement, will determine the future direction of the currency pair discussed. I will not be original if I say that the weakness of demand at these levels will lead to attacking the supply side. Therefore, it should be emphasized that, if the demand mean a return toward the last peak, at 1,1217-45 resistance must be overcome. In the case of defense by supply these levels, Eurodollar will head towards the last low of 1.1180. A pessimistic defeat of support will signal that the increases were finished and return to the falls towards lower price levels. Analyzing the Eurodollar in a broader aspect, you should think about whether the recent rally from 1.0909 to the 1.1367 level was not only a corrective movement, falls from 1.1617 to 1.0909 level. In this variant could return to decline as the traffic growth reached 61.8% fibo level, which is usually the maximum range of the correction, because the movements of corrective rarely tolerate higher values. Certainly, maintaining the eurodollar rate below 1,1217-45, will support this thesis. Summary: At the moment, sentiment is starting to change and investors begin, look favorably towards the US dollar. Last occurrence Janet Yellen is confirmation of this. However, everything will depend on the future of US data that may (in the case of weaker readings), quickly put out the enthusiasm of the market that prevailed during Friday. The key for the future direction of the Eurodollar will be data from the US.
Long
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 08/17/16On Tuesday there was a strong growth, which broke last important resistance. Overcoming the level of 1.1233 is a signal that there has been to knock the mountain with more than several weeks side trend. The currency pair reached the 1.1322 level, which covers the cleft of 6 June and represents around 61.8% abolish inheritance from 1.1617 to 1.0909. From a technical point of view, the road to higher levels has been opened. In this case, we should see a correction of Tuesday's gains and then the game should include the demand side. (Support is located at 1.1263 (50% fibo), 1.1245 (downtrend line) and 1,1217-33). After breaking the level of 1.1322, the next target seems to be the level of 1.1346, which can be a strong barrier to demand. (The model range of motion correction downward from the level of 1,1617-1,0909). It was therefore to be expected at this level, attacking the supply side. While overcoming resistance will signal that we are heading towards 1.1427 and 1,1449-60. At the moment the market sentiment favors a common currency. Alternative variant involves breaking the support at 1,1217-33. In this case, you must reckon with further declines towards 1,1166-91. In connection with empty calendar in macroeconomic major fluctuations to be expected in the evening, when investors learn about the FOMC protocol.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 16/08/16The technical situation on the main currency pair has not changed. At the moment a small advantage is the demand side, which is trying to once again lead to break the resistance level at 1.12. However, increases are limited, as the market awaits Tuesday's readings, which may be the signal for a stronger movement. If you receive readings support the European currency, the demand side will receive strong support, which may result in attack and breaking resistance at 1,1217-33. In this variant will to break with the top side of the trend of several weeks, which will open the way towards 1.1427. Previously, however, the demand will have to face, with a line drawn downward from the top of the 3 May (1.1617). Resistance is located in the vicinity of 1.1250. Otherwise, you must reckon with the acquisition of the initiative before the supply, which is supported by the data will lead to declines. The first resistance will be the last local minima at 1,1054-66, whose defeat will pave the way toward support level 1,1092-1,1125.
by RobertPapon