Smart Money Positioned to LONG Soybeans - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Soybeans (ZS)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in ZS if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. I note that I am already long as this market has been giving a buy signal for a few weeks.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials hovering around max long of last 3 years - bullish.
OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" in net positioning between commercials and large specs - bullish. Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the increase in OI". When the OI increase is caused by Commercials adding to longs, it is bullish.
True Seasonal: Major seasonal low end of September and up to February.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R, UO, Stochastic & Confirmed Momentum Shift.
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Zs
Zscaler's Stock Plummet 18.83% on Q2 Earnings ShockZscaler (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZS ), a prominent cloud security platform, experienced a significant drop of 17.8% in pre-market trading after its latest earnings release. While the company beat analysts' expectations on billings, revenue, and operating income for the quarter, its guidance for billings in the upcoming year fell short of market expectations. This mixed outlook has investors questioning the company’s near-term growth potential.
Strengths and Concerns
Zscaler’s recent quarter was a mix of positives and negatives. On the bright side, Zscaler (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZS ) reported $592.9 million in sales, beating the expected $567.9 million, and delivered adjusted earnings of $0.88 per share, significantly higher than the forecasted $0.69 per share. The company also made strides towards GAAP profitability by reducing its losses from $1.40 per share in fiscal 2023 to $0.39 per share this fiscal year.
However, concerns loom over the future. Management’s billings growth projection—13% in the first half of the fiscal year accelerating to 23% in the second half—didn't sit well with investors, reflecting uncertainty about the company's ability to sustain its momentum. Furthermore, Zscaler's guidance for non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.62 in fiscal Q1 2025 and $2.84 for fiscal 2025 was below the consensus forecast of $0.73 and $3.33, respectively. This signals potential headwinds that could slow down growth and delay GAAP profitability even further, now projected to be reached beyond 2027.
A Volatile Path
Technically, Zscaler’s stock has displayed high volatility, with notable swings in the last year, including eight moves exceeding 5%. The latest 17.8% drop is particularly significant, indicating a strong reaction from the market to the latest earnings report and future guidance.
The stock currently trades 37.8% below its 52-week high of $254.93, making it a potentially attractive buy for long-term investors looking for a discount on a high-growth cloud security leader. However, the sell-off has pushed Zscaler (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZS ) below key support levels, signaling bearish sentiment. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) which is sitting at 28.56 has also dipped into oversold territory, suggesting that while the stock is under pressure, there could be a rebound opportunity once the market stabilizes.
Outlook and Market Sentiment
The broader market reaction to Zscaler’s report highlights concerns over the cybersecurity industry’s near-term prospects, particularly as it faces challenges like economic uncertainty and shifts in customer spending behavior. Similar pressures have been seen across the sector, with rivals like Palo Alto Networks also facing guidance cuts and growing pains due to strategic shifts.
Despite the negative sentiment, Zscaler’s consistent revenue growth and progress towards profitability underscore the company’s potential. Investors should closely monitor upcoming earnings to see if Zscaler can deliver on its promise of accelerating billings growth in the latter half of the year.
Is Zscaler a Buy?
The significant drop in Zscaler’s share price could present a buying opportunity for those willing to weather short-term volatility in exchange for long-term gains. With solid fundamentals, a clear path toward profitability, and continued innovation in the cybersecurity space, Zscaler (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZS ) remains a compelling play, albeit one that requires patience and a tolerance for risk.
Investors should watch key support levels and consider Zscaler’s guidance trajectory in their decision-making. The market’s current apprehension presents a chance to buy into a high-quality name at a discounted price, though further volatility is expected as the company navigates through its challenges.
Upside Ahead for Soybeans - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
Long
Soybeans (ZS)
I got long Soybeans last week. This week we see the COT strategy still giving us signals to be on alert for long trades in ZS if we get bullish signals on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials close to the longest they have been in the last 3 years.
Valuation: Undervalued VS Gold
ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed yet)
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Buy Signals
Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
ZS Zscaler Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ZS:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZS Zscaler prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 200usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-9-20,
for a premium of approximately $11.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Zscaler Stock Jumps 5.94% on Unexpected ProfitZscaler's stock surged 5.94% on an unexpected profit, following a surprise profit of $19.1 million for the quarter. The company posted a revenue of $553.2 million, up 32% from last year and topped analysts' expectations of $535.2 million. Zscaler's fourth-quarter revenue guidance was mostly in line with estimates of $567.6 million, which would be up nearly 25% from the prior-year's reported figure.
The cybersecurity industry has been in a tough spot in recent months, with profit and sales projections from competitors like Palo Alto Networks and Cloudflare dragging down stocks around the industry. Zscaler shares ( NASDAQ:ZS ) were up more than 7% to $167.97 as of 11:03 a.m. ET Friday, but are still down about 24% for the year.
Cybersecurity has become more crucial in recent years amid rising online threats and a rapid rise in artificial intelligence that enable hackers to execute advanced cyberattacks. The cloud-based security solution provider expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $565 million and $567 million, with its midpoint above market expectation of $565.1 million, according to LSEG data.
Zscaler projects ( NASDAQ:ZS ) adjusted earnings per share of about 69 cents to 70 cents in the fourth quarter, compared with estimates of 68 cents. CEO Jay Chaudhry said that Zero Trust security remains a top IT priority, and an increasing number of enterprises are adopting their platform. Analysts expect budgets for cybersecurity products to rise in the second half, with some customers still waiting for the economy to improve.
The U.S. Department of State has been working with security vendors, including Zscaler, to secure its network after China-linked hackers stole tens of thousands of emails by breaching Microsoft's network last year.
Zscaler (ZS): Potential Pitfalls & Buying Risks ExplainedAt Zscaler, we believe that the subordinate Wave 3 has definitely concluded at 259.61$. Currently, we are in search of Wave 4, which is turning out to be unusually long and has already dropped below the critical level that we had considered as the last reversal point. This significantly diminishes the likelihood of a successful entry, prompting us to refrain from new engagements for now.
Moreover, the RSI indicates that the stock is oversold, which might suggest a buying opportunity. However, given the overall market dynamics and Zscaler's specific situation, we remain cautious. Should the price fall below the 163$ level, it would potentially invalidate our current scenario and suggest that our analysis might be incorrect, boding poorly for Zscaler's outlook.
Considering the current market uncertainties and specific risks associated with Zscaler, we have decided not to place any new entries at this time.
Zscaler (ZS): Breaking Through the CloudZscaler (ZS): NASDAQ:ZS
At the American cloud company Zscaler, we have completed the first 5-wave cycle at the level of $376.11, have since developed Wave II at $84.93, and are now in the overarching Wave III, which should naturally extend far beyond our Alltime High, thus above the current Wave I to also be valid. Currently, we are in the first 5-wave impulse upwards to complete the Wave (1).
We have ended the subordinate Wave 3 here precisely or almost exactly at the level of 161.8%, have since formed a stronger downward trend, and are now in the conclusion of Wave 4, and as can be seen on the smaller timeframe, our entry point is already indicated for Wave 4. This should reach between 38.2% and 61.8%. If we should fall below that, we should also reconsider this bullish scenario, but we would set a market entry here as we have already fallen into the buying zone and expect a rise above Wave 3, so above the level of $259.6.
ZS - Base and raceZS gapped down on earnings and filling the gap now.
Technically it can complete the Corrective ABC wave here and base above 180-200 .
If the broader market turns bearish, the Corrective ABC wave can turn into bearish Impulsive wave.
Long between 180-200
Stop loss 170
Target#1 - 260
Target#2 - 320, after a pullback
Target #3 - 380, after a pullback
Zscaler (NASDAQ: $ZS) Financial Health and Growth MetricsZscaler (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZS ) will release its earnings data after the market closes on Thursday, February 29th. Analysts expect Zscaler to post earnings of $0.58 per share for the quarter. Zscaler has set its Q2 guidance at $0.57-0.58 EPS and its FY24 guidance at $2.45-2.48 EPS.
Zscaler (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZS ) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Monday, November 27th. The company reported $0.67 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.49 by $0.18. The firm had revenue of $496.70 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $473.36 million. Zscaler ( NASDAQ:ZS ) had a negative return on equity of 21.39% and a negative net margin of 9.54%. The firm’s revenue was up 39.7% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the business earned ($0.47) EPS. On average, analysts expect Zscaler to post $-1 EPS for the current fiscal year and $-1 EPS for the next fiscal year.
Zscaler ( NASDAQ:ZS ) stock today fell 14% in sympathy with the 28% plunge in shares of cybersecurity competitor Palo Alto Networks ( NASDAQ:PANW ), which lowered guidance and said a shift in its go-to-market strategy would weigh on revenue and billings growth over the next 12 to 18 months.
Trading around $213.92, Zscaler ( NASDAQ:ZS ) stock is still up 11% since the company in late November reported that fiscal Q1 (Oct.) revenue advanced 40%, double Palo Alto’s top-line growth rate in the comparable quarter. Zscaler ( NASDAQ:ZS ) will release FQ2 (Jan.) results on February 29.
Zscaler Price Performance
Shares of NASDAQ:ZS opened at $213.92 on Thursday. The company has a market cap of $31.73 billion, a P/E ratio of -184.41, and a beta of 0.86. Zscaler ( NASDAQ:ZS ) has a 50-day MA price of $229.99 and a 200 day moving average price of $173.81. Zscaler ( NASDAQ:ZS ) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.40, a current ratio of 1.96 and a quick ratio of 1.96. Zscaler ( NASDAQ:ZS ) has a 1 month low of $202.86 and a 1 month high of $260.51.
Zscaler: Knock, Knock… ✊The Zscaler share is currently trying to establish itself above the $227.29 mark. According to our primary expectation, it should succeed in doing so and should travel a good bit further before it discards the high of the turquoise wave 3. However, there is also a 30% probable alternative, which comes into force in the event of an imminent fall below $206.67. In this case, the price would already be working on the turquoise wave alt. 4.
ZS Zscaler Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ZS ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZS Zscaler prior to the earnings report next week,
I would consider purchasing the 185usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $6.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ZS Zscaler Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold ZS here:
or reentered here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZS Zscaler prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 175usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $14.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Zscaler Inc. (ZS) approaching significant overhead resistanceZscaler Inc. (ZS) approaching significant overhead resistance, able to absorb buying pressures into August trade. From here, (ZS) can fall back to channel support, eliciting losses of 50% over the following 3 - 5 months. Inversely, if a settlement above channel resistance occurs, (ZS) enters into a BUY signal where gains of a similar magnitude can be expected over the same time horizon.
ZS - Falling Trend Channel [MID TERM]
🔹Broken the ceiling of the falling trend in the medium long term,
🔹Support at 142
🔹Volume has previously been low at price tops and high at price bottoms.
🔹Technically neutral for medium-term long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
ZS Zscaler and the U.S. Gov Agencies Hit By CyberattackIf you haven`t bought ZS here:
Then you should know that Zscaler provides cloud-based security solutions, including web security, data loss prevention, and cloud application security.
In light of the recent news regarding cyberattacks on multiple U.S. government agencies, it is reasonable to expect an increased focus on cybersecurity measures, which could potentially benefit cybersecurity stocks in the market. These attacks highlight the vulnerabilities present in the software systems used by government entities, underscoring the urgent need for robust cybersecurity solutions.
The fact that the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is actively investigating the breach indicates the seriousness of the situation and the government's commitment to addressing these security threats. As such, there may be a heightened emphasis on strengthening cybersecurity infrastructure and investing in advanced technologies to defend against future attacks.
The reported involvement of a Russian-speaking hacking group known as CLOP in previous attacks serves as a reminder of the persistent and evolving nature of cyber warfare. This continuous threat landscape necessitates ongoing innovation and investment in cybersecurity.
Considering these factors, cybersecurity stocks have the potential to experience an upward trajectory. Companies specializing in threat intelligence, network security, endpoint protection, and data encryption could be in high demand as organizations and governments seek to fortify their defenses against cyber threats.
My Price Target for ZS is $185 by the end of the year.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
ZS - Falling Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹ZS has broken the ceiling of the falling trend in the medium long term, which indicates a slower initial falling rate.
🔹ZS has broken up through resistance at 142.
🔹In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at 142.
🔹RSI above 70 shows that the stock has strong positive momentum in the short term.
🔹Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️