Crude oil, Dow Jones, and Soybeans: Many things are currently driving the bullish Ag markets. Oil/energy are heavily weighted in providing this bullish enthusiasm. The supply and demand for Corn and beans will be directly and indirectly impacted by Oil/energy markets. Energy Markets have the potential to react hard and fast on diminishing economic data. A strong economy should keep Oil and Ag Markets elevated to potentially extremely high levels. A soft economy (using DJI as a gauge) moving into recessionary mode, will kill oil demand and take down Ag markets for some time as well (as it did in 08’). I don’t know for sure what to expect for our economy, sensitive and volatile ahead… 23’ Corn and Beans are in Pickle. Inputs are expected to rise considerably so naturally we want today’s Cash prices (or better) for a more expensive 23’ Crop. It’s hard to price something (23’ crop) that is $1-$3 below the current Cash Market. But when this drops, the markets won’t ask you for your costs of production before dropping… Don’t fall asleep on multiple crop years, especially if we see “Blow off Top” activity in Oil and old Crop Ag markets.
ZS1!
ZS - Downward ContinuationDownward continuation as this strong resistance is in effect
Green circle is the point at which this trend line is broken and an upward shift is seen (in white)
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 1634'2
Pivot: 1611'0
Support : 1591'2
Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot of 1611'0 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback support area.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support in line with the swing low support.
Fundamentals: No Major News
Soybeans and Rate of Change PotentialBeans – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous major bull markets of the past 50 years. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 92%.
If beans move to the upper trendline in the $20.00 area it would be a 130% ROC and would “pale in comparison” to the 06-08 and 71-73 bull markets.
A 200% ROC on the charts would look very ugly to some and wonderfull to others with a price area at $26.00
**Disclosure** Do not take this as trading advice. The potential is there for higher markets, but anything could keep us from getting above today’s High.
Soybean Futures ( ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType: Bullish Bounce
Resistance: 1710'4
Pivot: 1690'6
Support: 1682'2
Preferred case: We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 1690'6 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st resistance at 1710'4 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1682'2 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: No major news.
Continuous Bean SpreadsWhen carry out stocks are plentiful and the market structure is more definable, spreads seem easy to manage.
In the current domestic and world market structure of strong demand and less supply, it seems that trying to add value to hedges with capturing carry may be more of a risk play.
It is wise to manage the risks we know and the risks we can.
Carry Spreads have their limits, Inverse markets have no Rules
Soybeans - Weekly continuousThe 17.59 high left behind the week of Feb 22 had price action accelerate into the bull trap area (113%-127% retracements) and quickly fell back to close lower for the week. We had since moved up, but beans failed to find bullish energy to make a new high.
The weekly close below the blue Tenkan line has the bulls on alert. Support below at 15.48 and then 14.75-14.69. There is a void in volume below 15.25 down to 14.25 that could be important in identifying risk the next few weeks. Risk at 14.25 to 13.66.
Should beans get a weekly close back above the blue Tenkan line, upside targets will remain valid with the big picture primary target at 19.67
Soybean futures (ZS1!), show up Bearish drop!Hello my friends, today I want to talk with you about Soybean futures
price retest the sliding parallel with good separation
FROM MY ANALYIS I THINK PRICE WILL GO bearish
for now the bull scenario seems more logical.
So be ready for such scenario.
lets see
Enjoy the market
This is an article, not financial advice, always do your own research.
If you have any questions, you can write it in comments below, and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your like and comment, thank you.
Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish drop!Title: Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish drop!
Type : Bearish drop
Resistance : 1759'2
Pivot: 1728'4
Support : 1637'4
Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastics resistance , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1637'4 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 100% Fibonacci projection from our pivot at 1728'4 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1759'2 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 127% Fibonacci extension
Fundamentals: No major news.
Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish drop!Type : Bearish drop
Resistance : 1728'4
Pivot: 1691'6
Support : 1637'4
Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the ichimoku cloud resistance , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1637'4 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection from our pivot at 1691'6 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1728'4 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 127% Fibonacci extension
Fundamentals: No major news.
Soy Beans Futures(ZS1!), H4 Potential Bullish continuation Type : Bullish continuation
Resistance : 1747'2
Pivot: 1656'0
Support : 1625'6
Preferred Case: On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 1656'0 in line with horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 1747'2 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving above the ichimoku cloud .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 1625'6 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Fundamentals: No major news event.
Title : ZS1! (Soybean) , H4 awaiting bullish confirmation Title : ZS1! (Soybean) , H4 awaiting bullish confirmation
Type : Bullish continuation
Resistance : 1755'2
Pivot : 1632'4
Support : 1578'2
Preferred case: On the H4 , price is near pivot level of 1632'4 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the swing high support of 1755'2 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may dip to the 1st support level of 157982 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals : No major news event
Short Soybean (weekly Chart)In daily Chart we are seeing an RSI divergance combined with
high selling volumes,
a bearish candlestick top,
as well as a RSI divergance between highs from May 2021 in the weekly chart.
The area of resistance is valid since 2008.
I think we will get a small pullback before breaking the risistance later this year, if a financial recession occures in a few months.
Soya bean is good for healthRead articles here , here and here .
It has since gone up 20+% since the low in March around 790.
I think this bullish trend is far from over and there are still ample opportunities for traders who are keen to long it.
I would await for a correction (around 960) to get in. At this juncture, I think it is a little overbought and a correction is necessary before it can goes higher.
ZS1! (SOYBEAN) IN A CORRECTIONZS1! (SOYBEAN) is in a correction of the intermediate (4). We finished Minor wave 5 as an extended wave and I am considering the 4th wave as a complex correction because of the extended 5th wave. We can go around 38% to 50% of the Fibonacci which is 1473 to 1423 for finishing the correction of the 4th wave. This correction will a time consuming also.
As an alternative count, we just finished Minor wave 3.
DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans.
#ZS1! #SOYBEAN
Soybean marketSoybean – Weekly Cont: Price accelerated from the 50% retracement and resistance level at 14.24 up past the cloud and quickly filled the next primary target at 16.12. Last spring beans spent a few weeks above 15.75, but with light volume.
No telling if beans will chop around into a consolidation pattern to give us time to better guess a direction, or if it launches higher filling the targets above…
The candlestick formation left behind this week looks similar to the one left behind last year at the high. I am cautious for the next week or two and would be willing to look at short term protection
Soybean big picture Market structureLooking at the same parameters as we did for the Corn: I didn’t show a 200% or 300% rate of change as I did with Corn. Instead I show that it would take a 107% rate of change to match the 2012’s 17.89 high. **A 200% gain would place Beans in the mid $20’s….
Continuous SoybeansSoybean – Weekly Cont: The High to Low Cycle appears complete (for now) with the break above the downtrend and 24% retracement. Beans filled the 38% target with a 13.84 high. The close last week is concerning as it left a doji like formation that could be cause for a change in trend??? Beans need to get above 13.84 (preferably a weekly close) to negate this potentially bearish candlestick. Risk for the next week or so is a move down to re test the down trending line it just broke above. Risk is 12.82 next week
A move above 13.84 will target 14.24 and then 14.81.
Big Picture Market structure for SoybeansCurrent Market Structure: **(Like Corn) Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range (IMO) from 10.00 to 12.00. Currently risk has been to the upside and inflationary threats elevated, keeping beans elevated as well. There are to many variables that affect the fundamental picture, expect volatile markets untill the Market structure becomes more defineable.
Resistance area from 12.75 to 14.00 and then 16.00 area. **12.75 to 14.00 is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged
Support area is 11.80 to 11.40. Further Risk is 10.00 – 9.00.
Soybeans Weekly continuous chartSoybean – Weekly Cont: Soybeans struggled to get weekly closes inside the cloud and now working to break below the blue Tenkan line. A High to Low cycle needs to see a break above the trend line and above the 24% retracement to move out of bearish territory. The failure below 12.96 suggests we are not bullish. A weekly close below 12.30 targets the 11.81 lo. **Caution, many times a failure to move above the 24% target suggests a new low. 11.67, 11.52 and 11.37 would be targets below with 11.14 the primary target.
We need a weekly close above 12.30 and a recovery soon back into the cloud with price action above 12.96 to negate the bear.
Longterm Soybean Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **(Like Corn) Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range (IMO) from 10.00 to 12.00. Currently risk has been to the upside and inflationary threats elevated, keeping beans elevated as well. There are to many variables that affect the fundamental picture, expect volatile markets untill the Market structure becomes more defineable.
Resistance area from 12.75 to 14.00 and then 16.00 area. **12.75 to 14.00 is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged
Support area is 11.80 to 11.40. Further Risk is 10.00 – 9.00.
Soybean CrushSoy Crush: Crush demand remains very strong currently at 1.66. Strength in Crush margins can come on the backside of strong moves lower in beans. Currently crush is high due to strong demand for oil and a weaker bean market. If Bean oil holds elevated levels and Meal can find some strength, Soybeans should find a lift higher.
Soybeans: Price has retreated well off spring/summer highs. Finding support with higher crush margins
Soybean Meal: Over supply with the excess crush causing a retreat in price. Will lower price meal spur demand, or is Meal the first one lower with Beans and Oil to follow?
Soy Oil: Fundamentals in the domestic and world market driving the Oil market. Long term outlook remains elevated on Biofuel needs. A correction in the Oil market will drive the Crush market, and would eventually drive the Soybean Market lower.
**Watch the Soybean Oil market carefully. Also any negative action or talks out of Washington and the biofuels industry**
Soybeans US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes.
Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports….
COT:
Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users.
Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk….
Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins.
Funds are exiting their longs
**These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
