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Soybean Futures September 2021 ContractHey there. Just one question, do you see any buying pressure in the Volume Oscillator? No? Yeap me too, so we will strong on short. Price will make(finger cross) a reversal at the trendline and we will be exiting our position in the next resistance turn support. P/S: My position was entered yesterday at 1412.6. The reason why I posted this is because some of my friend were saying that the price is currently bullish and already making a reversal. Some of them has close their position, I will stick to my plan, which I will exit at the next support area @ 1372. Option 2, I will exit if its break the trendline and has no mean to reverse down. Good Luck
CBOT:ZSU2021Short
by AMianz
2
New Crop Beans Probe Below the Teens - Did Lumber Give the Clue?Last week, the commodities sector experienced more than a speed bump after an extended period of price appreciation. As July soybeans roll to the next active month and the new crop November contract in the futures market, the price became a falling knife before recovering on Friday, June 18. Beans tank They were not the only commodities A Fed hint made its transitory wish come true Lumber continues to give clues as it moves first The legacy of COVID-19 will live on- Bull market dips can be brutal July beans have been in the teens for most of 2021. New crop November beans rose into the teens in April and remained there until mid-June when they briefly fell below $13 per bushel. While the weather across the critical growing regions is the primary factor driving the price of the oilseed futures, all commodity prices fell last week. Ironically, lumber has been signaling a correction was on the horizon since mid-May. The illiquid lumber market has a habit of leading commodity prices, making it a crucial sentiment benchmark. I never trade lumber because of its limited liquidity, but I watch the price action like a hawk. Beans tank Nearby CBOT soybean futures reached a high of $16.6750 in May 2021. The chart shows the rise to the highest price since September 2012 when soybean futures reached a record $17.8900 peak. Chinese demand, the weather conditions and COVID-19 in South America, and falling global inventories pushed the price to the high last month. Nearby soybean prices have been mainly in the teens throughout 2021, only dipping to a low of $12.98 in January. The recent selling took the price down to a low of $13.2350 per bushel last week before it covered to around the $14 level. New-crop November soybeans have been trading in backwardation to the nearby July contract. Backwardation is a condition where nearby prices are higher than deferred prices. Backwardation is a sign of tight supplies or a market deficit. The market has remained optimistic that the 2021 crop year will produce enough oilseeds to meet the growing global demand. The chart of soybeans for delivery in July 2021 minus November 2021 shows the backwardation narrowed from a high of $2.29 per bushel in January to the 82.25 cents level at the end of last week. However, at 82.25 cents, the July beans continue to command a hefty premium to the new crop November beans. The chart shows that the November futures contract entered the teens, with the price rising above $13 per bushel in late April and remained there until last week when it probed under the level. However, the November contract recovered, and new crop beans were still in the teens as of June 18. At $13.15, soybeans for November delivery corrected by over 11% from the June 7 high at $14.80 per bushel. They were not the only commodities Soybeans were not the only commodities to experience selling over the past weeks. Corn and wheat prices decline. Copper, a leading metal, fell from a record high at nearly $4.90 per pound in May to settle below $4.16 last week, a 15% decline. Palladium reached an all-time high of $3019 per ounce in May and was trading around the $2470 level on June 18, over 18% lower. Metals, industrial, and agricultural commodities fell sharply last week. The only markets that remained near the recent highs were crude oil and natural gas. The strength in the energy sector is likely a function of the shift in US energy policy, causing tighter regulations on drilling and fracking at a time when demand is booming in the wake of the global pandemic. A Fed hint made its transitory wish come true The selloff in commodities began before the June 10 Fed meeting but selling accelerated in its aftermath. The Fed did not change monetary policy. The only concrete change was a slight five basis point increase in the reverse repo rate. However, the central bank shifted its rhetoric from “not thinking about thinking about” rate hikes or tapering QE. The FOMC members decided it was an excellent time to begin thinking. The May CPI data that shows inflation rising by 5% and the 3.8% rise in core inflation, excluding food and energy, was enough for the central bank to hint that rates could head higher and QE could begin to taper in 2022. The prospects of a less accommodative Fed caused a cascade of selling in markets across all asset classes. On Friday, June 18, hawkish comments by Fed Governor James Bullard caused selling in the stock market. While the Fed continues to characterize rising inflationary pressures as “transitory,” the more hawkish comments and forecasts may have made its characterization comes true, at least in the short term. The correction in commodity prices will likely cause a decline in inflation data over the coming months if prices continue to fall or sit around the current levels. Lumber continues to give clues as it moves first The illiquid lumber futures market provides the commodity market with clues over the past months on the up and the downside. Before 2018, the lumber price never traded above $493.50 per 1,000 board feet, the 1993 high. The annual chart dating back to 1972 shows the explosive move in lumber that took the price to a high of $659 in 2018, $1000 in 2020, and $1711.20 in 2021. The weekly chart shows lumber futures rose above the 2020 high in mid-February 2021, months before other commodity prices reached record or even multi-year highs. Lumber peaked at $1711.20 during the week of May 10 and became a falling knife. The turn came before other commodity prices corrected dramatically in June. Lumber may be an illiquid market that does not offer trading or investment opportunities, but it has been an impressive barometer for the future path of least resistance for raw material prices. I never trade lumber, but I watch the price action in the wood market like a hawk. Last week, nearby lumber futures fell to a low of $855.10 per 1,000 board feet and settled below the $900 level on June 18. Lumber has nearly halved in price from the early May high, just six short weeks ago. Put lumber on your radar as a critical indicator of commodity market sentiment. Over the past year, lumber rallies have been a harbinger of bullish trends in the raw materials asset class. Falling lumber prices have signaled that corrections are on the horizon. The legacy of COVID-19 will live on- Bull market dips can be brutal Meanwhile, the correction in commodities was brutal last week, but the asset class remains in a bullish trend since the March and April 2020 lows. Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines. The higher prices move, the odds of brutal corrective periods rise. The cure for high prices in commodities is those high prices as producers increase output, and demand tends to decline when raw materials become too expensive for consumers. We are still in the early days of the post-pandemic era. The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus continue to overwhelm the financial system. The CPI data told us that inflation is a clear and present danger. Whether it is “transitory” is a question that remains. Real estate prices are soaring; the stock market remains near its all-time high. Digital currency prices suffered severe corrections, but they remain far higher than 2020 levels. The US dollar may be bouncing against other world currencies, but that could be a mirage. Measuring the dollar’s value against other foreign exchange instruments provides an incomplete picture. If all fiat currencies are losing purchasing power, the dollar may only be the healthiest horse in the foreign exchange glue factory. Inflationary pressures will not go away overnight. Even if the Fed begins increasing the short-term Fed Funds rate and tapers QE, the liquidity in the financial system remains at unprecedented levels. Government spending is not likely to decline under the current administration in Washington, DC. The impact of liquidity and stimulus in 2008 drove commodity prices higher until 2011-2012. The levels in 2020 and 2021 are far higher than in 2008. As I recently wrote, Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. Professor Einstein would likely be a buyer of commodities on the current price dip as we are still in the early days of the bullish cycle if the period from 2008-2012 is a model. As vaccines create herd immunity to COVID-19, the virus will continue to fade into the market’s rearview mirror. However, the legacy will live on for years. I will be watching lumber for clues. When the wood price hits bottom and turns, it could provide another hint that commodity prices will reach higher lows sooner rather than later. When it comes to the soybean and other agricultural markets, rising inflation is bullish, but Mother Nature will dictate the path of least resistance for prices. The 2021 crop will be a function of the weather conditions across the fertile plains in the US and other growing regions in the northern hemisphere over the coming weeks. Commodities remain in bull markets, despite the recent selloff on the back of the Fed’s rhetoric. Any significant shift in monetary policy remains months away. A rising dollar and higher interest rates could cause lots of turmoil in markets across all asset classes, but the damage from the liquidity and stimulus that stabilized the economy and financial system will last for years to come. I remain a commodity bull, despite the recent selloffs and view them as buying opportunities. Picking bottoms in markets is a fool’s game, so we trade with the trends. However, the odds and fundamentals favor higher lows in the inflation-sensitive asset class. Sign up for the free Monday Night Strategy Call using the link below! Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Editors' picks
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
14
This is just the beginningCommodity prices are still going, several commodities have gone past all time highs, such as Palladium, Lumber, Steel... And grains are also going up very strongly, Corn hit an 8 year high after 6 years of price stability, and they're all not far from ATH. Corn imports have fallen as buyers are put off by the high prices (they are going against the trend, what if it never goes back down?). Soybean demand should continue to increase, it is in high demand for the green transition (as a meat replacement, fuel additive or replacement, lubricant, etc). And based on past years it seems farmers do not sell before summer (they plant in April-May). This is now the 12th month in a row food prices have been going up. History will show this was more than just some short term fluctuation or some economic recovery. If we look at the past 10 years we might expect that soybean volatility is set to soar, every year as farmers plant their crops volatility increases by about 50%. It fits with what you would expect after a range breakout, a trend that gets stronger and stronger ending parabolic (and bears screaming "this is ridiculous"), followed by a significant correction. Corn has been the big runner and I think I will avoid it now, but wheat is interesting, after a long period of being choppy and lagging behind other grains, it has gone vertical finally! If this keeps going I will look to go long wheat on a pullback. Resistance (ATH) is far away: The price stopped at the $15 psychological level, gathered reinforcements, and then continued up. In many ways the situation is similar to 2007, but much crazier, with Rudolf Havenstein running the central bank. We have seen this several times in the last year: After hesitating a bit around resistance, the price makes a new high giving confirmation to sidelines traders. No reason to think this time is different, and as more people notice the trend it can be expected to get stronger. We can look at previous vertical price rallies, and expect it to go at least to $18. It does not make sense to me that the rally would stop now. It would be like a big truck running at full speed instantly stopping for no reason. On the weekly chart clearly it does not have that much distance left to get to all time high, it's not far fetched at all, especially with all the other commodities that went well beyond ATH. The trick is getting in on H4 to grab a fantastic risk to reward. The main difficulty with these crazy vertical price moves is you can never enter and once you get in it reverse. But with Soybeans... It is granting perfect pullbacks and breakouts, at least it has for the past 9 months. And cherry on the cake, it could just fly past ATH, again. Who knows how far it can go? If this was the winter low volatility, what could the year peak volatility be? Up 25% in a week? Hey it's even possible it ends up in the news and retail goes insane and starts a bubble with dumb money arguments "new paradigm", "market of 7 billion eaters with the green transition", "we are very early" and so on. The past centuries were full of all sorts of commodity bubbles, tulips that's the one everyone knows about, rabbits, silk, and others ones no one knows about but still have a few traces left in old books.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by MrRenev
3
Inflation trade: Bulls leading battle of attrition on bearsThis is the type of inflation that the masses ignore, that happens while they cheer at Chavez stimulus checks. Look at images of Venezuela 15 years ago, so many smiles, so happy crowds. While Germans were carrying buckets of cash and starving actually farmers were doing pretty well, they profited greatly. Probably for similar reasons the clueless revolutionaries in Russia called them "bloodsuckers". How outrageous they profit while others suffer oh no! All is their fault, not the people actually responsible. But what the cheering average people worrying about their day to day lives don't see is the worst type of inflation: basic goods prices go up, production goes down. Hurray, everyone gets more "money", everyone gets more pointless pieces of paper, great, I will finally be able to afford, checks notes, nothing at all. There is LESS STUFF for everyone. These people, especially the urban ones, they live in fantasy land, I've seen some of those cretins say supply and demand is a myth. WAT? That's so dumb, boy are they about to learn their lesson. It is an endless circle. Prices go up, prod goes down, there is less stuff, people push prices up, prices go up, prod goes down, and so on. Maybe reptilian brained people panic fight each other for toilet paper and pasta again? Rubs hands. Few eat soybeans, only california millenials from what I hear, what it is used for is feeding domestic animals, not the friend kind, the food kind, soybean gets turned into milk, steaks, pork chops, bacon and beef jerky and all those industrial products made from meat that americans eat like candy. Americans have a ghrelin disease, they get ravenously hungry they'd kill to eat buckets of food. Also the situation in Argentina not getting better, farmers waging war to the socialists. The weather is really dry in Argentina, these big bags of beans could catch fire very easily, damn it would be a shame if they started to burn (again). The freezing cold weather did not help, other producers are rekt because of cold & wet. Who else is heavilly impacting this? The big buyers in the far east have stocks but they'll have to buy eventually hehe. In this inflation env, any negative event will push the price up anyway, and "positive" event will just make it pullback or sideways a bit, maybe only slow it down. I think the price will chop chop a bit on its way up, chop chop not as hurry up I mean go back and forth :p, then bears will break and it will slide vertically. To ~17$, which is a very special price you know.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by MrRenev
4
We are getting close to trend changeIt has been a long time since my last Soybean forecast. It is time to pay attention to this market. It is setting up for the decline. Commercials are heavily selling, the seasonal tendency is to the downside, and Insider Accumulation is turning bearish. So, if on Monday we get below Friday’s low, that will be a sell signal. However, it seems like it will take more time to form some pattern. We may see a very short-term rally followed by a sell signal formation. Don’t hurry and wait for confirmation. We have a good setup, but timing matters a lot in this business.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
8
SOYBEAN IS TRYING TO MOVE AWAY FROM DOWNTREND - ZS1! - 30MNWe have observed several forces acting as a brake and pushing the price above the red down trending line. But a very strong squeeze front last tops have seen the market being inconsistent with its which to move upwards. The two horizontal black lines are the new tops and bottoms of the horizontal trending range. We could observe during this week a market which will try to break above by going directly to it or by finding first a a support point on the top of the red down trending line. The probability to see the market breaking above the black resistance line is less likely than seeing a pullback down again at that level. It could probably be a good sells entry point (possibily from Thursday). For the moment the last volume have shown signs of a force pushing up against sellers. Keep an eyes on the $900 mark, still legit and try to trade it during the morning Asian session (Tokyo time from 9am30 to 12pm and opening of the Frankfurt & London 8am to 10am GMT0) as it is more stable and easy to read.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
SOYBEAN FUTURES (ZS1!) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Dinjin
2
SOYBEAN FUTURES (ZS1!) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Dinjin
2
SOYBEAN FUTURES (ZS1!) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Dinjin
Long Term Prospects for SOYBNUSDThe SOYBNUSD, symbol ZS, is in a Bear Market Rally within a long-term Bear Market with price trading above the 50 week ema, but below the 200 and 800 week emas. The long term emas are mostly flat, signaling accumulation / distribution. The price action appears to be finishing up the c-wave of an x-wave before a final y-wave down. The long upwards candle wicks, the testing of the 200 ema, and consecutive dojis are all confirmation that a top is being putting in. This would correspond with a long-term commodities bottom expected in 2021. The Market is in a Bear Market Rally on the daily, with price above the 50 ema, which is above the 200, but still below the 800 ema. The 50 ema is up-trending, but the other long term emas are mostly flat, signaling an accumulation / distribution range. Price is topping out having just completed an evening star pattern, but has yet to close below the 13 ema. Price has yet to break the uptrend line, so expect sideways price action, and another stop test of the high, with a trend break, confirming a sell off. The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price trading above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, which is above the 800 ema. After a Dark Cloud top, price traded down below the 50 ema on the four hour, formed a doji, and will likely reverse back up from here. Probably trade up in the coming week to finish out an M-Top formation, before resuming the greater down-trend. This is my SOYBNUSD look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
OANDA:SOYBNUSDShort
by Cincinnatuus
SOYBNUSB Long and ShortLooking at the long term chart, soybeans are poised to make an aggressive move to the upside. However, this can happen in two flavours: a failure at the 9.224ish level followed by a correction and an extension of the building divergences, or, a break past that level followed by more upside. If the price hits the aforementioned price target and stalls out or piddles across on low volume / weak price momentum, then it would be wise to go short. At that point, soybeans will likely retest the 8.061 level and power on up from there. The other scenario is that soybeans cross above on a decisive move and continue further. There may be a pull back and retest of the wedge's current resistance but either opportunity will provide an objective long entry. For this trade, SOYB will be the vehicle of choice.
OANDA:SOYBNUSD
by BigMouse777
2
ZWZ2019-ZSX2019 - Commodity Spread TradingZWZ2019-ZSX2019 Wheat December 2019 - Soya November 2019 Interesting spread between the December futures contract of Wheat and the November contract of Soya. As it is statistically deduced from our software, in this case the Moore Research, we have a percentage equal to 87% in which this difference is reduced, and therefore, a normal convergence of the two values of the contracts that bring their distance closer to 0 rather than move it away. The very nice thing about this type of operation is the reduction of the volatility that can cause sometimes big problems. For example if on the soya there should be some important news its value could vary suddenly and the grain, being a correlated of it, would follow it consequently and it is for this reason that through the Spread Trading these potential unexpected problems are avoided. www.mrci.com
CBOT:ZWZ2019Long
by SwissTradingSchool