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ZW1!

Bearish on grains & wheatBeen a while since I posted about agri. Price is around its average now, I see no reason for it to skyrocket. I don't think this little rally is a new trend, I see it as a correction. And the short term uptrend is probably just noise that kindly comes fill my shorts. Technically the price around 490-495 is a sweet spot to short this which makes it interesting. We let the amateurs trade everything to make sure they don't miss out. Market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent so use a stop loss. And also, it's not 100% sure the price is supposed to go down, might be wrong. So in any case, stop loss (or something else) is good.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by MrRenev
ZWZ2019-ZSX2019 - Commodity Spread TradingZWZ2019-ZSX2019 Wheat December 2019 - Soya November 2019 Interesting spread between the December futures contract of Wheat and the November contract of Soya. As it is statistically deduced from our software, in this case the Moore Research, we have a percentage equal to 87% in which this difference is reduced, and therefore, a normal convergence of the two values of the contracts that bring their distance closer to 0 rather than move it away. The very nice thing about this type of operation is the reduction of the volatility that can cause sometimes big problems. For example if on the soya there should be some important news its value could vary suddenly and the grain, being a correlated of it, would follow it consequently and it is for this reason that through the Spread Trading these potential unexpected problems are avoided. www.mrci.com
CBOT:ZWZ2019Long
by SwissTradingSchool
ZW1! Long Idea- OpinionHi there ! This is a recent analysis for ZW1! that focus on long positions. As you see at the weekly chart the price after a short breakout tend to rebounce to the median of the bollinger bands , this long swing signal it is also confirmed from ADX and RSI also tend to give a solid buy signal after the recent oversold levels. The opinion here is that ZW1! is going to reach the price level of 490$. As we enter the mid spring season prices tend to go higher through crops all over the world and especially in the summer season. **This is not an investment advice , it is only for educational purpose** Invest with safety.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by OmenFinance
WEAT under pressure?Not really. Instead it's building pressure! All the messing around in the sideways area (dark red) is usually managed to "load the boat". If price breaks out to the upside, there's even a chance that we could forget to find a entry like I have projected with the arrows. What also pops into my eyes is the slightly exponential curve that's begin to build with the last couple bars... Putting the Toe into the water is not a bad Idea for me. If the scenario becomes real, I would load up on new pullbacks. P!
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
7
ZW1! Long IdeaHi guys ! My view is a long position for ZW1! according to G20 meeting Trump - Xi Chiping will find a short timely solution about the recent trade war , so agriculture futures will temporarely rebound i think . According to my technical indicators that i use ADX and Vortex index , they signal a buy just for a quick trade . ADX tends to achieve 40 and the + vi is above the -vi which is a buy signal. My target is for now 525. Hope you find that usefull , have fun ! This post is not an advice , it is just an idea so be carefull for any positioning.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by OmenFinance
Short Wheat ZW1!US Wheat (Chicago) hit the upper line of the triangle I draw in the weekly chart. This line - for now - hold and wheat did not move higher. Furthermore, volume did not really increased during the upmove of the last two to three days. This is even more striking in the weekly chart, where volume decreased in the last three weeks while wheat moved up. This is a strong signal for falling prices. On the fundamental side: The US Dollar Index broke out of its triangle and is about to move higher in the next couple of weeks. The Ruble devalued further against the US Dollar Index. Both are important reasons for falling US Wheat prices. But: Spring wheat seedings are behind - in the US and Russia (this is especially important for Russia). This might have a strong effect on Chicago Wheat. If Wheat moves above the upper triangle line / breaks out, then this is the reason. Therefore, a close stop should be put in place a little bit above the (blue) uppper triangle line. The next support line is at around 478.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709
Short WheatDue to a weaker Ruble, Wheat from Russia becomes more competetive which should be solved by a partial decline of US Wheat prices (and by a partial increase in Russia Wheat prices - higher demand for Russian Wheat). Furthermore, USDA does not expect a declining "Ending Stocks" for Wheat this season although US Weather around Kansas is still very unfavorable for Winter Wheat conditions. World Ending Stocks expected: Estimates (April) = 254 Million MT, March = 252 Million - but this is mostly due to a higher estimated "World Beginning Stock" (instead of 252 Million, the world started with 254 Million in this season). Therefore, I expect US (Chicago) Wheat prices to fall to around 462 (next support area). A stop loss should be placed a little bit above 478 (now a resistance area).
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709
Short on Wheat (Chicago) The contract was in an upwards trend until it hit a trend line (1st / 2nd of March) I drew in the weekly chart (possible triangle formation). The resistance in form of the trend line hold and the price started to fall. It broke the first support line at 478 (last high) and the second support area at 462 / 459 (last low) with increasing volume. In my view that is a clear sign that the price might fall further until it hits the trend line at roughly 425 / 430 (part of the possible triangle formation I drew in the weekly chart). The support area at 462 / 459 now becomes a resistance area. My idea is supportet by weather conditions around the world (22nd of March): USA / Canada: Although key wheat producing areas around Kansas have been too dry, relief is expected from the 25th of March onwards. The forecasted precipitation will especially relief dry conditions in Oklahoma and Texas. Furthermore, temperatures are going to be higher than usual in the next two days. All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat. Europe: Temperatures have been significantly lower than usual, although no frost damage is expected. Germany and the Northern parts of Eastern Europe have been to dry. Precipitation is expected for the period: 25th of March - 29th of March. Temperature is going to increase, too. All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat. Black - Sea - Region: Temperatures have been significanly lower than usual, too. A thick snow cover protected winter crop. No significant damage is expected. But, temperatures are expected to stay lower than usual. Cold weather and the thick snow cover prolong dormancy and this might after all have a negative effect on the crop yield. All in all: Conditions are not perfect. Neverthless, a high crop yield is expected. China: Temperatures are forecasted to be significantly higher than usual in important wheat growing areas (esp. in the East of China). All in all: Favorable conditions for wheat. No extrem weather or significant dryness is expected within the next week. Extrem drought in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas is reliefed thanks to precipitation in the coming week. US - Dollar is for dollar dominated commodities an important factor. A week Dollar boosts prices. I expect the US Dollar to fall to 89.02 / 88.50. Here is an important resistance. This might not be favorable for Chicago Wheat price but one has to consider that US Wheat is still highly priced compared to its competiton in the Black Sea Region. So all in all, I think that the price should fall further.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709