What to look for next week. After my lose streak, a win streak?AAAAAAH PONZI IS TRYING TO GET ME! Leave me alone I will not fall for it! Everything is a ponzi they are trying to get us!
Did you know ponzi's existed before Ponzi and were invented by a woman (unless they existed even before)?
Women are a scam! They do not really exist they are out to get us! Women are a ponzi!
They promise new humans every few years in exchange for time and money! Scam!
No, I am not high.
Ok nothing is a ponzi, well except crypto of course, what an incredible scam.
I might have spent too much time watching this meme market recently. What a ridiculous space, trully unbelievable.
Before diving in each market (every market except bonds basically since I can't find a broker for bonds), let me explain that risk reward winrate thing:
It is so laborious, like people start wnating to be right all the time and getting a high winrate, but that does not work, so they aim for high risk to reward,
but you get stopped all the time and that is bad. So either abandon (can't figure out there is more to trading than drawing triangles & butterflies and chaisng good "RR"? lololol), or they might try to combine RR & Winrate, which is smart. BUT RR does not go up with winrate going down, there is a 3rd element to add: frequency. Or how active the trader is. You can have a large risk to reward and an incredible winrate at the same time. It is possible. But then you will only be taking 1 trade a year.
So here is what to look at:
- Risk to reward
- Winrate
- How many trades will you be taking? If it is too low you will want to lower the bar to get more opportunities.
- Also we could add weakling things like "how many losses can you handle in a row" "How much time do you have?" "Boohoohoo my emotions" etc.
Ok let's look at all the ponzi's 1 by 1 :)
Currencies :
The US dollar broke out of consolidation eary-mid august which is nice, but it is trolling right now. Cannot tell where it is likely to go next now...
But that uncertainty does not stop Forex pairs (it stops EURUSD thought). I will not post all that I am watching, but I will post a few.
For example the USD/Yuan FINALLY dumped and made a lower low, that was overdue. Unless the USD gets stronger I am expecting a downtrend soon.
The People’s Bank of China made announcements that will ease credit conditions, and it's monetary policy is shifting, so that caused a Yuan crash,
but as always, people overeacted, and the news got overpriced, it got way oversold. Time for a correction.
Pound versus Swiss Franc. Super bearish.
But I know we are reaching a certain level now, and I expect it to go down with bullish divergence, I will then go long. We can already see the momentum is much weaker now...
When it bounces, I will short it.
AUDCAD: simple, I want to short it when it goes up in this box. Actually higher than this box.
Gold (& other metals) :
Metals are all following the same path. I will just look at gold in this idea which is the "leader".
Go in TV chat, there are not as many bulls on Gold, they were calling for 1400 a few weeks ago. No more.
But some people still think it goes up. This is perfectly normal as we have not yet started wave 5. When wave 5 will be well established, price will be maybe 1140 say, go check reddit or something (has to be "noobish" enough). It should be full of bears.
But, let me show you how perfectly fibo levels have been respected.
1rst the large count:
Then I look at the subwaves of (1):
Next subwaves of (3):
Wait for fib to be reached (0.618) and see how it reacts looking at lower timeframes.
US Stocks :
There is much uncertainty. I just prefer not touching these for a few months. I believe they will keep going up, but with weakness, and then brace yourselves for the crash of the century.
Nasdaq and S&P are much stronger than DJI, if they continue to be, if they continue to be when the Dow goes to 30k/35k (assuming it does), then their downside will
be much more brutal, and I will be sure to short them, both short term (day trade violent resistance rejections and panic dumps) & keep some position trades probably.
But for the next few months, I think it is best to stay away, there are plenty other things to trade, crypto (meh), metals, soft commodities, Oil (meh), Bonds (idk why not many brokers offer this actually one of my brokers might offer bonds I have to check later), Forex of course.
It will be a while before I look at EU ASIA stocks, if ever.
CryptoPonzi :
Nothing new going on as usual. Stay tuned for more nothing next week.
The most losses I had in a row I think was 5, and the most wins in a row a dozen. Can I beat either record? :)
