Long-Term Trend of the US 10-Year YieldThe US 10-Year yield trades very well on the 3-month timeframe. Extrapolating it further, I expect it to hit 3.0-3.5% sometime within the next 12-18 months.
Government bonds
U.S. FIRMS SWAP DOLLARS FOR EURO to lower funding costsU.S. FIRMS SWAP DOLLARS FOR EURO to lower funding costs—SMART MOVE?
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! U.S. companies are flipping dollar debt into euros—slashing borrowing costs 📈🔥. Cross-currency swaps are the hot ticket amid rate gaps. Let’s break it down! 🚀
(2/9) – SWAP SURGE
• Trend: Dollar bonds morph into euros 💥
• Why: Eurozone rates lag U.S. by ~200 points 📊
• Volume: $266B in Jan ‘25 swaps, up 7% YoY
Lower rates, big savings—companies pounce!
(3/9) – THE TRIGGER
• Fed: Holds steady—U.S. rates stay high 🌍
• ECB: Eases up—eurozone softens 🚗
• Trump Tariffs: Stir inflation fears—volatility spikes 🌟
Dollar strength pushes firms to euro deals!
(4/9) – HOW IT WORKS
• Swap: Trade dollar debt for euro payments 📈
• Gain: Cheaper interest, currency hedge
• Impact: Millions saved, euro cash flows shine
It’s a financial jujitsu move—clever stuff! 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY
• Euro Flip: Stronger euro could zap savings ⚠️
• FX Losses: Hedging costs climb if dollar dips 🏛️
• Uncertainty: Fed vs. ECB—rate dance wobbles 📉
Smart bet, but not risk-free!
(6/9) – WHY NOW?
• Rate Gap: U.S. high, eurozone low—carry’s juicy 🌟
• Trump Effect: Tariffs fuel dollar power 🔍
• Global Ops: U.S. firms shield Europe earnings 🚦
Timing’s ripe—swaps are the shield!
(7/9) – MARKET VIBE
• Early ‘25: Swap restructures cash in 🌍
• Savings: redirected to debt, flexibility 📈
• Trend Watch: Grows if rate split holds
Companies adapt—financial acrobatics in action!
(8/9) – Dollar-to-euro swaps—what’s your take?
1️⃣ Bullish—Cost cuts win big.
2️⃣ Neutral—Works now, risks later.
3️⃣ Bearish—Euro rebound kills it.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
U.S. firms swap dollars for euros—saving millions as rates diverge 🌍🪙. Tariffs and Fed fuel the play, but euro risks lurk. Genius or gamble?
US 10Y TREASURY: lower on retail salesThe inflation in the US picked up above market expectations in January, however, the retail sales figures defined the market sentiment. As it has been posted, the retail sales in January suddenly dropped by -0,9%, which was much higher from the market estimate. Despite the higher inflation figures, the decrease in the retail sales provides some indication that the inflation will not significantly pick up in the coming period. This was the main indication for market participants, which brought the 10Y US treasuries down from the level of 4,65% down to 4,45% on Friday trading season. Still, yields ended the week at the level of 4,47%.
Regardless of inflation figures, at this moment trade tariffs of the US Administration represent an unknown factor for market participants. As markets are not happy with uncertainty, any news of tariffs in the coming period might trigger higher market volatility. As per current sentiment, yields have space for further easing, at least till the 4,2% level. However, fundamentals still represent the unknown factor which could temporarily revert yields to the higher grounds.
The Most Effective way to fight Tariffs, is to Sell BondsIn an era when protectionist tariffs have become a go-to tool for DUNCE Political leaders such as President Voldemort, it is time for investors, institutions and nation states to take a stand—and not through traditional protest, but by wielding the formidable power of financial markets. Tariffs, by raising costs and distorting trade, can sap economic growth. Yet, as history and recent trade wars have shown, the real battleground is not just at the border but in the bond markets. The BIG FRAUD of created by American's "Buy, Borrow, Die" mental illness is already at a point where it could burst any moment and the best needle to poke this bubble is the 2 Year Bonds. If these bonds default, a recession will likely happen and it is unlikely a republican majority will be elected in the house and senate during the mid-term cycle.
Therefore, the most aggressive and effective countermeasure is to sell off short-dated (2‑year) bonds in favor of longer‑dated (5‑ and 10‑year) bonds, and to liquidate any and all U.S. bonds held by companies in politically “red” states. This would mean the debt they hold is being sold for pennies on the dollar, like Twitters loan already is...
Tariffs and Trade Wars: Lessons from Recent History
The recent imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China has sparked a new wave of economic disruption. These tariffs—intended to protect domestic industries—have instead triggered retaliatory measures and rattled global markets. As reported by Reuters, the trade war initiated by these tariffs has not only led to rising costs for consumers but also to significant volatility in financial markets. Such aggressive trade policies reveal an underlying fiscal vulnerability that can be exploited through strategic bond trading.
REUTERS.COM
Historically, trade wars have often served as the catalyst for broader financial instability. When tariffs escalate, investors flock to safe-haven assets, yet the resulting market dynamics also open up opportunities for those who know where to look. Now is the moment to pivot—and the bond market is the perfect arena for this counteroffensive.
Historical Defaults: A Wake-Up Call
Contrary to the oft-repeated claim that “the U.S. has always paid its bills on time,” history tells a different story. There have been several notable instances—ranging from the demand note default during the Civil War to the overt default on gold bonds in 1933 and technical defaults such as the 1979 payment delays—that remind us of the inherent risks in our national fiscal practices. These episodes highlight that U.S. bonds, despite their reputation for safety, are not immune to default under fiscal duress.
THEHILL.COM
This historical perspective should not only unsettle complacent investors but also embolden them to leverage the bond market as a tool of economic resistance. By strategically repositioning bond portfolios, investors can exacerbate fiscal pressures on policymakers who rely on the illusion of unfailing debt service.
The Yield Curve: An Opportunity for Tactical Rebalancing
The current structure of the U.S. Treasury yield curve presents an unprecedented opportunity. Short‑term bonds—especially the ubiquitous 2‑year Treasuries—are trading at levels that no longer justify their risk, given the market’s expectation of a steepening curve as longer‑term yields are poised to rise. By aggressively selling off 2‑year bonds and using the proceeds to acquire 5‑ and 10‑year bonds, investors can capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve. This strategy not only enhances returns but also sends a powerful signal: the market is rejecting the financial underpinnings that allow tariffs to be financed cheaply.
This repositioning weakens the liquidity available for financing government policies that sustain tariffs, thereby indirectly undermining the protectionist agenda. As bond market dynamics come into sharper focus amid rising inflation fears and fiscal deficits, this tactical shift represents a proactive measure to tilt the scales back in favor of free trade.
REUTERS.COM
Targeting “Red State” Bonds: A Political and Financial Imperative
It is no secret that companies based in states with predominantly conservative (or “red”) leadership have often been the political bedfellows of tariff advocates. These companies not only benefit from protectionist rhetoric but also tend to issue bonds under fiscal conditions that make them particularly vulnerable when market sentiment shifts. Moreover, they also tend to be overvalued anyway so the likelihood of panic selling is more likely. The time has come to liquidate any and all U.S. bonds issued by red state companies. By divesting from these securities, investors can both shield themselves from potential losses and apply market discipline on a sector that has, for too long, been insulated from the harsh realities of global trade dynamics.
This aggressive divestiture sends a dual message: a rejection of protectionist policies and a call for a more balanced, market-oriented approach to national fiscal management. It is a bold stance that forces a rethinking of the relationship between politics and finance—a reminder that no company should be immune to the corrective forces of the market.
Conclusion
Tariffs are not just trade policy—they are fiscal weapons that rely on the ability to finance cheap debt. History has shown that even the most stalwart bond markets are susceptible to default under pressure, and recent trade wars have only amplified these vulnerabilities. The solution is clear and decisive: sell off 2‑year bonds and reinvest in 5‑ and 10‑year bonds, while liquidating U.S. bonds held by red state companies. This aggressive financial maneuver not only promises better returns in a steepening yield curve environment but also serves as an effective counterattack against protectionist tariffs.
By rebalancing portfolios in this manner, investors take an active role in challenging policies that restrict free trade and hinder economic growth. In the world of modern finance, sometimes the best way to fight back is to let your portfolio do the talking.
Disclaimer: This article reflects a strongly opinionated perspective and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
Critical 4.50% level being tested ahead of Trump speech and FOMCThe US10-year yield closed the week marginally higher at 4.48% after a busy week of events which saw the DXY stumble by 1.2% despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed chair Powell, which in my opinion was all dollar positive. US CPI for the month of January came in hotter than expected at 3.0% yoy, up from 2.9% in December. Additionally, on top of Powell’s comments regarding the strength of the US economy, the ISM Manufacturing PMI completely shattered expectations after coming in stronger than expected at 50.9 for the month of January.
The US10-year yield is currently testing the 50-day MA level of 4.52% as well as the blue support range between 4.45% and 4.50%. A break below 4.40% will however force me to invalidate my series of ideas on the US10-year yield calling for a move higher towards 5.00%. A break below 4.40% will allow bond bulls to pull the yield lower onto the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 4.30% and the 200-day MA at 3.69%.
US10Y - Perfect Discount Delivery!Let’s take a deep dive into Yields and have a look at how price delivered throughout last week.
The week prior, I posted that we will be seeing discount prices; 4.468% equilibrium draw in the near future and we absolutely smashed that price region.
Ready for 6.5% on the 10Y T-Bill?It’s been a while since I’ve posted an Idea, however since the market may be at a pivotal point I thought I’d do a quick analysis on the $US10Y. Using elliott wave and fibonacci ratios as my base logic, I predict that we could see a 6.5% or higher 10 year T-bill in the near future.
The fib extension above is based off 1.00 of Primary waves 0-3. I’m counting that we are in the early stages of the 5th and final wave, which is commonly 61.8% of waves 0-3 in length.
My wave count is supported by the DMI indicator and the 50sma (Blue) & 100sma (yellow). The yield is still above the moving averages, signaling a continuation to the upside. Primary wave 4 was a zig zag (A-B-C) pattern in a slightly descending channel, which has a tendency to break to the upside. With inflation proving stubborn and a looming trade war providing a backdrop that is concerning to investors, it is time we get back into the mindset that the inflation battle isn’t quite over yet. Yields are rising across the world and the US is no exception.
US10Y Bond Short on Regression BreakUS10Y is now net-short on regression break.
I am considering this pair, along with the 02Y and 05Y bonds.
Looking at EA that best suit the situation
US05Y Bond Short on Regression BreakUS05Y is now net-short on regression break.
I will consider this pair as price action develops and decide which EA is suitable.
U.S. 10-Year Yield (US10Y): Traders Watch Key LevelsThe U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) is one of the most important indicators in the financial world, influencing everything from mortgage rates to stock market trends. It reflects investor confidence in the economy, rising when expectations for growth and inflation increase and falling when investors seek safer assets. The yield is closely watched by traders, economists, and policymakers as a key gauge of market sentiment.
The chart recently showed a confirmation bar, moving into the momentum zone, which happens when the price rises above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This signals a potential continuation in trend direction and increased interest from investors around inflation.
EUR/USD short: End of the rebound higherHello traders
My TP at 1.0370 was executed on my long EUR/USD position.
I have initiated a short EUR/USD position after Chair Powell's testimony this morning.
He expressed confidence in the economy staying robust and that there is no rush to cut interest rates.
The chart is my guiding light on a daily basis to determine which direction risk is heading.
EUR/USD is heading down again after testing the daily breakdown at 1.0382. USD CPI tomorrow MAY reverse the tide again, so keep a close eye on all these asset classes.
www.tradingview.com
Best of luck all.
Results Of QE TighteningWhat you're seeing in this chart is the 10 year. A great one to watch to see what the market is thinking. The 10 year is showing the results of QE tightening and Trumps willingness to curb the debt problem. What Trump is doing is healthy, this market needs it. To the moon does not last forever. It is looking like a twist coming in the MACD but looking previously it would have been considered a fake out. Unless Trump comes in and saves this market tomorrow could be a bloodbath. This scenario is on borrowed time regardless. We are literally bleeding dollar bills out of our ears. BRICS abandoned the dollar as we know, although tradable. During the Great Depression JP Morgan bailed out the market. People said he saved people but the people that were wiped were already gone, he saw the bottom coming in which just made JP Morgan the wealthiest company in history. Fast forward to now, nobody is bailing $37 trillion. This an end game, again, unless Trump or The Fed steps in.
US 10Y Yields - Perfect Discount Delivery!Let’s take a deep dive into Yields and have a look at how price delivered throughout last week.
The week prior, I posted that we will be seeing discount prices; 4.468% equilibrium draw in the near future and we absolutely smashed that price region.
US 10Y TREASURY: higher on inflation expectationsThe major data release during the previous week was the US jobs report. The on-farm payrolls were lower from market expectations, at the level of 143K, however, this was not a concern of the market. The major indicator which moved the US Treasury yields to the higher grounds was a drop in unemployment combined with an increase in hourly earnings of 0,5% and higher from markets initial estimate. The increase in wages implies higher consumption and in the last instance, higher inflation. In addition, the Michigan inflation expectations rose to the level of 4,1%, indicating that US consumer sentiment stands on expectation of a higher inflation during this year. This was a signal to markets that the Fed will potentially hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time.
The 10Y US benchmark rose on Friday to the level of 4,51%, but ended the week at 4,49%. Investors will certainly use the week ahead to digest the latest jobs data in the US. In this sense, some smaller correction in yields might be possible. Still, the US trade tariffs continue to be a concern of investors, in which sense, any negative news related to imposed tariffs might swiftly push the yields again to the higher grounds.
CPI week for US 10-year yieldsSince my last idea on US10-year yields the Fed opted to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.50% and the latest NFP print came in at a lackluster 143 thousand in January, down from 307 thousand in December. These two events provide a contradicting impact for US longer term yields as the weaker labour market results is indicative that the Fed may have to continue cutting rates to stimulate the economy, which is positive for bonds, while the Feds decision to pause rates plays the ball into the court of a move higher in yields towards 5.00%.
US 10-year yields touched a low of 4.4% last week before the 50-day MA at 4.50% provided support. The 50-day MA is my critical level to watch as a break below this level will invalidate my ideas calling for a move towards 5.00%. A failed move above 4.50% will allow bond bulls to pull yields onto the 200-day MA at 4.25% which coincides with the blue downward neckline and the 61.8 Fibo retracement.
A break above 4.50% will however support my idea of a 5-wave impulse higher towards 5.00%.
The week ahead has two major events on the cards that will influence the US bond market. The first of which is Fed chair Powell’s testimony before congress. I’m not expecting anything new here besides the usual gibberish and double-speak but keep an ear out for the status of the Fed’s taper progress and any comments on the low liquidity levels of the Fed’s reverse repo facility.
The next event is where the significance lies, the US CPI print for January which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%, just like it did back for the December print. Inflation has been ticking higher since October last year, almost right after the Fed started their cutting cycle and anything other than an inline or lower than expected CPI print will have the US 10-year yields packing and making its way to 5.00% since it will indicate that the Fed will stay higher for longer.
Also worth noting is that the US 10-year yield topped out at 4.8% when the CPI print came in as expected at 2.9% so this time around a stronger than expected print may serve to mark the bottom at 4.4%. (Always remember, CPI is a lie).
YS10Y 4H10-Year Treasury Bond Analysis
The analysis is progressing very accurately and in line with the previous forecast, and we are following it with confidence.
High precision analysis, amazing results!
Head & Shoulder 10 Year Bond - Possible Bond Yield ReversalIn this chart I noticed the 10 Year Bond is forming a Head & Shoulders Pattern. If this plays out it would be Bullish !!! Typically when the 10-Year Bond retraces asset prices go up. Aka Prices increase to the upside !!
The RSI is also bouncing from lows nearly reaching the oversold level but not quite. It's possible that there is more downside left on the RSI and that levels continue to go down. I will be watching the RSI closely to see how it changes over the following days and weeks.
This market is CRAZY !!!
WHAT'S FLOWING: EURAUD | CADCHF | GBPAUD | BRENT | COPPER + MORETop Row Charts:
EUR/AUD (Top Left): Market is trending upwards, labeled as "LONG", possibly indicating a buy signal based on the trend or setup shown.
CAD/CHF (Top Middle): Seems to be range-bound with no distinct trend breakout, potentially in consolidation.
GBP/AUD (Top Right): Marked as "LONG", showing a bullish trend continuation.
Bottom Row Charts:
Brent Crude Oil (Bottom Left): Labeled as "SHORT", indicating potential bearish momentum or correction.
Copper (Bottom Middle): Another chart marked "SHORT", likely reflecting a downtrend or sell signal.
UK100 Index (Bottom Right): This chart also indicates "SHORT", suggesting possible weakness in the index.
DXY (Bottom Right): Labeled as "FLAT", indicating a lack of directional bias in the U.S. dollar index, showing indecisive or range-bound trading.
These charts seem to be using TPO (Time Price Opportunity) profiles and volume profiles, which help traders analyze price action around key levels, identifying areas of value or imbalance. You are likely monitoring multiple assets (forex pairs, commodities, indices) for potential trade setups, distinguishing between trending and consolidating markets.
THE MACRO: GOLD / $ / COMMODITIES / ASIA EMWelcome to THE MACRO, where we take a big-picture view of the financial markets, analyzing long-term investment trends, macroeconomic shifts, and strategic positioning for major plays. In today’s episode, we’re diving into gold, bonds, the U.S. dollar, commodities, and global indices to understand where the smart money is flowing for 2025 and beyond.
Key Macro Themes in Focus
1. Gold & Gold Miners – Inflation Hedge & Safe Haven?
• Gold futures continue their long-term uptrend, holding strong above key support levels.
• Gold miners (GDX ETF) are lagging behind physical gold prices, presenting a potential value gap—is this an opportunity for long-term investors?
• With real yields fluctuating, gold remains a hedge against monetary policy uncertainty.
2. U.S. Government Bonds & Interest Rate Outlook
• The U.S. 2-Year Yield is stabilizing after an aggressive tightening cycle.
• Global bond yields (EU, CAD, MXN) suggest divergence in monetary policy—could rate cuts in 2025 boost bond markets and risk assets?
• Watching yield curve movements to gauge potential economic slowdown or soft landing.
3. U.S. Dollar Strength & Its Macro Impact
• The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is showing relative strength, bouncing off support levels.
• A strong USD puts pressure on emerging markets and commodities—if the dollar weakens, expect risk-on assets to rally.
• What are central banks doing? Watching foreign exchange reserves and monetary policy adjustments.
4. Commodities – Inflation, Supply, & Demand Shifts
• Corn & Wheat futures are showing signs of a bottoming structure, supported by demand-side recovery and potential supply constraints.
• Agricultural commodities are historically undervalued compared to inflation-adjusted levels—this could be an inflation hedge for long-term investors.
5. Global Equities – China & Hong Kong Markets
• Hang Seng Index is forming a potential reversal pattern, suggesting renewed investor interest.
• Global capital flows into Asian equities might indicate a shifting macro landscape as China attempts stimulus-driven growth.
Macro Investment Takeaways
1. Gold remains a key inflation & risk hedge, but miners are lagging—potential opportunity?
2. Bond markets are stabilizing—watch yield curves for signals of recession or soft landing.
3. The U.S. Dollar’s strength is a key macro driver—will it break higher or roll over?
4. Commodities (corn, wheat) are showing long-term bottoms, could be undervalued.
5. Asian equity markets (Hang Seng) are at critical turning points—global capital shifts in play.
Final Thoughts: Positioning for the Long Term
• Are we in a late-stage cycle where defensive assets shine (gold, bonds)?
• Or are risk-on plays like commodities & emerging markets primed for a comeback?
• Watching global policy decisions for clues on positioning in 2025 and beyond.
This has been THE MACRO, where we track long-term investment plays and macroeconomic trends. Stay tuned for more insights as we follow the big picture moves shaping global markets!
#TheMacro #LongTermInvesting #MacroTrends
Euro Schatz Future Quote Feature | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Euro Schatz Future Quote Feature
- Double Formation
* 1st Trendline | Completed Survey | Subdivision 1
* 2nd Trendline | Uptrend Bias & Entry
- Triple Formation
* 012345 Wave Count & Long Set Up Feature | Subdivision 2
* ABC Flat | Sideways Mark Up | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
LONG 10YR Note FuturesThis could have just as well been 10Y. Forex or ZN Futures in any case a rate play in a cycle of increasing commodity prices (Cocoa, Soybeans, Corn, Cotton, Cattle, etc...) so to the 10yr rate in a period of accelerating rates and accelerating to stagnant growth. We are here at the edge or LOWER BOUND of a daily risk range volatility adjusted in a bull market which means its time to pull the trigger. Play a stop on a break a little bit below the trend line to your own risk tolerance but give it a little room to breathe.
Is the US 10Y yield dropping below 4%?My short-term profit-generating system is giving a strong signal that the US 10Y yield is about to drop below the 4% level.
The US Treasury market is regaining its safe haven status.
