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Understanding the US10Y Crab Pattern in 2024 The US10Y refers to the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is a key indicator of the overall health of the economy and is closely watched by investors. "Analyzing the US10Y trend, a bearish butterfly pattern has emerged at the 1.276 and 1.618 level, indicating a potential bullish trend in 2023. This pattern suggested a reversal in the current market direction, and The US10Y bond market has been exhibiting an intriguing pattern known as the "CRAB PATTERN," with implications for the year 2024. This pattern suggests that the market may experience a period of consolidation before potentially reversing its direction. Additionally, the presence of a parallel channel further supports the notion of a bearish trend, as this technical indicator typically indicates a downward trajectory in the market. Traders and analysts should closely monitor these developments and consider potential strategies to navigate the market amidst this anticipated trend. It is crucial to conduct thorough analysis and consider various factors before making any significant trading decisions in response to the observed pattern and trend.
TVC:US10Y
by SEYED98
3
Why Are Bonds Still Crashing?Why are US, UK, and EU bonds still crashing since March 2020? In this video, we are going to study the relationship between bonds, yields, and interest rates, which many of us find confusing. How can we understand them, and why are bond prices leading the yield, followed by interest rates this season? 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US30YEducation
by konhow
9
US 10Y TREASURY: June inflation and PPIMarkets reacted to released unemployment data during the previous week. The increasing unemployment to 4.1% in June from 4.0% in May was an indication to investors of a possibility that inflation pressures will slow down on decreased employment and that it will provide the necessary space for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. After struggling to sustain yields during the past several weeks, the market finally reacted in a relaxed manner during the previous week, by bringing the 10Y benchmark yields down to 4.28% on Friday. Yields started the week around level of 4.48%. For the week ahead, it should be considered that June inflation and PPI data will be published. Although surprises in inflation data are not expected, still, in case that posted figures do not fit market expectations, the market will correct current pricing. As per current charts, the level of 4.20% is indicated as the next level to be tested. However, some volatility might be expected, but not higher from 4.30%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US01Y Treasury Head and ShouldersBeen watching the US01Y treasury as its chart patterns certainly are just as valid as normal stocks, but it really reflects the basis of the whole US economy being highly correlated to the fed interest rate. Right now we have a very well-defined head and shoulders pattern after quite the straight line up from near-zero from the covid era. The action this week in particular is interesting, in that it may be starting to reveal an initial tipping point. Up until this week, I wasn't sure if it was going to be a head-and-shoulders fakeout leading to a continued uptrend in rates, but this looks more like the possible beginning of a new trend back down, **if this decline continues over the next few weeks...** The 200-week SMA on the left screen would be a likely target, so somewhere between 2.5% - 3%... Let's see!
TVC:US01YShort
by tyler_sim
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting inflation dataFriday brought some higher volatility on the markets as newest inflation data were released, as well as the consumer sentiment. Although 10Y Treasury yields spent the first half of the week testing levels above 4.20%, still, released inflation data pushed the yields toward the 4.40% level. Released PCE data showed inflation at 2.6% y/y, which was the lowest level for the last three years. Still, the market also took into consideration Michigan consumer sentiment, which reached the level above the market estimate, and exposed consumer expectations that the inflation will stay elevated around 3% within the next year. The market priced recent available information regarding the potential Fed's move in the coming period. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is still showing that the majority of participants are expecting that the first rate cut might occur at September`s FOMC meeting. Still, it should be noted that Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted in an interview during the week, that she does not dismiss the possibility of increasing interest rates if inflation turns to the upside again. Since the market reached the 4.4% level on Friday, it could be expected that digesting of the latest inflation data will continue within the week ahead. In this sense, there is a higher probability that yields will ease during the week, at least to the level of 4.3%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
10yr Treasury Yields Consolidate at Key 4.32% LevelThe world’s most important market, the 10yr US Treasury, is trading directly at a critical level. Going back years, the 4.32% level has served as reliable support/resistance, and today’s drop after peeking above that level yesterday has only emphasized the importance of that key level. At the same time, the 10yr Treasury yield has put in a series of lower highs and higher lows dating back to Q4 of last year, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern that could lead to an outbreak of volatility in the coming weeks. A bullish breakout above 4.60% would hint at a possible retest of 5.00% (and likely weigh on risk assets like stocks and higher-yielding currencies), whereas a bearish breakdown in yields would open the door for a drop toward the December lows near 3.80%. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXcom
Yields are in a do or die situationYields are pulling back a bit from the run they had yesterday. It was expected to have a bounce at the support levels. The 2Yr & 10Yr #Yield both look as if they want to settle a bit but time till tell . We will see how Yield reacts over the next few days. It is important as a crashing yield can mean higher prices all across the board in many assets. We've stated before that they CANNOT lower rates but at the same time CANNOT raise them. Seems as if they are playing around a bit providing liquidity to keep markets propped up a bit AND they may keep rates steady or just have 1 rate drop, before election. TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE weekUS Treasury yields had a relatively calmer week. Higher volatility was exhausted after the FOMC meeting, two weeks ago. The economic data are weighted and in expectation of the new ones the 10Y US benchmark was moving within a relatively short range, between levels of 4.20% and 4.29%. However, the major concern of market participants continues to be when the Fed will cut interest rates? Recent economic data are showing some potential that the US economy is beginning to slow down. This might be one of the triggering events for the Fed to cut interest rates, despite relatively elevated inflation figures. The week ahead is bringing PCE data for May, which is Fed`s favorite inflation gauge. In case of any surprises, the volatility might be easily back on markets. As per current charts, there is some potential for 10Y yields to test a bit higher ground, above 4.30%, while continuing to test the 4.20% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX