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Government bonds

Huge potential implications from YIELD SPREADS (US10y-DE10y)Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn in the sequence of stronger US data? If so then in coming weeks/months we could see: Weaker data Lower yields (esp in the front end) Curve "disinversion" Weaker DXY Higher risk assets = stonks, commods (gold silver, Uranium, oil etc), Bitcoin
TVC:US10Y
by WVS_Stockscreen
US 10Y yield key support under pressureWe suspect that the US 10Y yield chart has topped short term having tested and again failed at its previous uptrend at 4.74 (which is now acting as resistance) . Please see the weekly chart. This throws the spotlight on key nearby support where we find a short term uptrend, last week's low, the 55-day ma and the 200-day ma together with a previous high all converging 4.44-4.33 (see daily chart) . While this could well hold the initial test, it is now under the spotlight, and should it give way we would allow a return visit to the 20-month ma at 4.03. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
US02Y Next Move The matter still requires deeper analysis, despite the absence of wide-ranging movement today. The recent decline in bonds did not help boost gold prices. The yield on the two-year US bond is currently at a support level of about 4.8% on the one-dimensional chart and may look to rise. If the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy, gold may struggle to rise. However, if we begin to receive signals indicating that the Federal Reserve may wish to continue lowering interest rates this year, gold may be more optimistic. We should monitor the level of two-year and ten-year bonds, the direction of the dollar index, and geopolitical aspects to be clear about the direction of gold.
TVC:US02Y
by HezhaRavandi
US10Y - Sloppy Bearish BiasThe weekly range spans from 4.570% - 4.739% and with the weekly EQ being tagged alongside buyside getting swiped, I am scoping out for the daily order block which is near the weekly sellside @ 4.593% and the second target being the lows at 4.570%. Some form of a pullback into the lower displacement weekly fair value gap is a projection for throughout the trading week is logical to expect, especially during volatile days where there is a lot of news releases. Also to note, the Sep - Oct 2023 weekly liquidity void is also a area of importance, especially the consequent encroachment which already aligned with the daily order block so during the week I will update this post if bias has changed.
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
US 10Y TREASURY: space for further relaxation?During the previous period the market was trying to price its expectations of a less than three rate cuts during the course of this year, giving up on the Fed's announcement from the latest FOMC meeting. The meeting held on May 1st, showed that the market was right in its assumptions, considering that the emerging US inflation might put halt on rate cuts this year. This was also confirmed by the Fed Chair Powell in an after the meeting speech, considering that the Fed will stay devoted to the 2.0% inflation target. Treasury yields reacted during his speech, however, the major impact on 10Y Treasury yields had an April jobs report. The weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls, as well as, increased unemployment to 3.9% in April from 3.8% posted for the previous month, were main triggers for 10Y Treasury yields to reach the lowest weekly level at 4.45%. Still, they are ending the week at 4.51%. The market will slowly digest the new information during the week ahead. Still, some further relaxation in the 10Y Treasury yields might be expected. However, they first need to test the 4.5% level before they start their move toward the 4.4%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Powell pullback as Fed will slow QT.The critical support level to watch here is the 50-day MA at 4.38%, as a failed break below this yield will allow yields to spike to 5% off the back of a continued sell-off in US long-term paper despite the Feds efforts to aid the US bond market. Keep an eye on the tail in this week’s US 10-year note auction! The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last week. US bond yields and the dollar tumbled off the back of the increased bets for rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50% but the real dovish sentiment started flying when the Fed announced that they will slow their balance sheet taper to $25 billion, down from $60 billion, per month. That is a whopping $35 billion that will technically be injected into the market. The dovish FOMC meeting was followed by a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI print along with a feeble non-farm payrolls print of 175 thousand in April, down from 315 thousand in March. These data prints along with the recent weak US GDP results is increasing the odds for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later as the Fed may be forced to stimulate the economy before they reach their lauded 2% inflation target. On top of all this, last week US regulators announced the first US bank failure of the year with Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank being forced to close its doors. The week ahead will allow markets to digest the Fed’s more dovish stance as there are no major data prints on the calendar. The US 10-year and 30-year bond auctions will be the main attraction for the week ahead and we will be able to gauge whether investor appetite for long-term US debt has improved following the latest monetary developments. The recent demand for long-term US paper has been fragile with long tails forcing dealers to pick up the slack in the US bond market
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
Fat finger buys on US10y in Asian sessionThe early morning Asian sessions saw some peculiar moves with the USDJPY pair falling to a low of 154.56. There are rumors of possible FX intervention from BoJ to save their vulnerable Yen. Simultaneously, there was strong buying pressure for the US 10year which is pulling yields down aggressively. The US 10-year yield is showing signs of pulling back following the strong selling pressure since March and we should keep a hawk’s eye on yields given the volatility on the USDJPY pair. I however expect the broader treasury sell-off to continue as long as the Fed stiks to its current hawkish stance. Big data is on the calendar as well with the FOMC statement and the US NFP's. A failed break below 4.50% will allow the US 10-year to return to the 2023 high of 5% in my opinion. The yen is a particularly important domino in the current financial system since it is the carry trade currency of choice and Japan is also the biggest holder of US treasuries with roughly $1,500 billion US treasuries on their books. Intervention methods to save the yen will either be to sell-off US treasuries or increase interest, both of which cause the carry trade margin to decrease which will severely rattle the foundations of the financial system. The carry trade has been an exceptionally profitable one since the inception of casino capitalism as it allows investors to borrow (sell the yen) at 0% interest and then re-investing those borrowed funds into higher yielding bonds. This system is however showing sign of fragility and fx intervention from Japan may just close the buffet on this free lunch…
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
US 10Y TREASURY: all eyes on FedReleased data for the US economy during the previous week could point to the stagflation moment in the US during the course of this year. Posted data for core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index show that in March it increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis, from 2.6% expected by the markets. At the same time, the first estimate for the US GDP Growth Rate was 1.6% for the first quarter of this year, while the market was expecting to see the figure of 2.5%. As it is evident that the inflation will persist during the course of this year, markets have decreased their expectations on three rate cuts for this year. As per CME Group FedWatch gauge, the market is currently estimating two rate cuts with a 44% probability rate. One more week markets spent eyeing higher yields for US Treasuries, in order to adjust their previous estimates to new available information and sentiment. Although 10Y Treasury yields started the week around 4.6% level, they were looking for the higher grounds during the week, reaching the highest weekly level at 4.73%. Still, yields relaxed a bit during Friday`s trading session, when they returned to the level of 4.66%. The market nervousness will continue during the week ahead, considering that the FOMC meeting and Fed's rate decision is scheduled for the 1st May. Any new information that Fed Chair Powell shares with markets will be immediately priced through yields. Based on current charts, there is some probability for yields to reach 4.8%, but it should be taken with precaution. On the other hand, there is also high probability that yields have peaked, and that some relaxation might be expected in the coming period. What is certain at this moment, is that markets will continue to trade in a nervous manner until they finally hear the Fed's decision and their perception on the US economy and potential future rate cuts.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX