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US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC induced volatilityThe 10Y US Treasuries reacted to jobs figures data posted on Friday. The data were somewhat mixed. On one side, unemployment for May showed an increase to 4.0% from 3.9% posted for the previous month. On the other hand, the non-farm payrolls with 272K jobs added, significantly surpassed market expectations of 190K. The market is expecting for the jobs market to slow down as it will be the first sign for the Fed to pivot, as inflation is holding sticky above 3%. However, May data were sort of mixed. The Fed is meeting on Wednesday, and the majority of market participants are of the opinion that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Based on the CME Group's FedWatch Tool there is currently a 68% chance that the Fed will pivot in September this year., based on traders’ expectations. A mixed mood has been evident during the previous week. The 10Y US benchmark was moving toward the downside during the week, reaching its lowest weekly level at 4.27%. Still, Friday’s trading session brought a change in sentiment, where the market returned yields toward 4.43%, due to posted jobs data. As FOMC will decide on interest rates on Wednesday and will communicate its macro projections with the wider community of investors and traders, it implies that the increased volatility might be ahead for another week. Still, the markets should eventually calm after they price all available information.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Extensive Analysis of the US Government Bonds 10YR Yield Chart (Overview The chart for US Government Bonds 10YR Yield on the 4-hour timeframe shows significant movement with the price rebounding from a recent low. The indicators used include Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), MACD, and Support and Resistance levels. Key Observations 1. Moving Averages (200 MA and 50 MA): • 200 MA (Green Line): The price is currently below the 200 MA, indicating a bearish long-term trend. • 50 MA (Blue Line): The price is also below the 50 MA, reinforcing the short-term bearish sentiment. 2. Bollinger Bands: • The price is at the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that the market may be at an equilibrium point. The previous move was from the lower band, suggesting the market might be moving back towards the upper band. 3. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): • The CCI is likely around 0 or slightly positive, indicating neutral to mildly overbought conditions. This suggests a potential for a continuation of the current trend or a mild pullback. 4. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): • The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram is showing increasing positive values, indicating bullish momentum. 5. Support and Resistance Levels: • Resistance Zones: Strong resistance is seen around 4.550% and the strong high zone above. • Support Zones: The recent low at 4.250% is marked as a weak low, with further support below. Comprehensive Technical Analysis 1. Current Trend: • The long-term trend is bearish, as confirmed by the price being below the 200 MA. However, there is a short-term bullish sentiment as indicated by the price moving upwards and crossing the 50 MA. 2. Equilibrium Conditions: • The price is near the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a balance point. A move above this band could suggest a continuation towards the upper band, while a rejection could mean a return to the lower band. 3. Volume: • Increased volume during the recent upward move indicates strong buying interest, which may continue to push the price upwards. 4. Key Support and Resistance Levels: • Resistance: Significant resistance levels start from 4.550% to 4.700%. • Support: The recent low at 4.250% and significant support around this level. 5. Momentum Analysis: • The MACD indicates bullish momentum, suggesting the possibility of further upward movement in the short term. Best Trade Opportunity Given the current market conditions, the best trade opportunity appears to be a short-term buy trade to take advantage of the recent bullish momentum and potential for continuation towards higher resistance levels. Trade Setup: • Buy Level: Around 4.435% (current level near the middle Bollinger Band) • Stop Loss: Below 4.300% (to account for potential pullbacks) • Take Profit: • First target: 4.550% (near the first resistance level) • Second target: 4.650% (middle resistance level) • Extended target: 4.700% (upper resistance level) Trade Rationale: • Bullish Indicators: The MACD and the recent upward movement suggest bullish momentum. • Volume Consideration: Increased volume during the recent move up indicates strong buying interest, supporting further upward movement. • Risk-Reward Ratio: Entering a buy position near 4.435% offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, especially with a stop loss below the recent low. Summary • Buy Opportunity: Enter at 4.435% with a stop loss below 4.300%. • Targets: 4.550% (first target), 4.650% (second target), and 4.700% (extended target). • Rationale: The market is currently showing bullish momentum, and the potential for continuation towards higher resistance levels is high given the MACD and volume indicators.
TVC:US10Y
by KironKavanagh
1
1O year US T Bond Yield:A hot jobs report Friday sent shivers through the bond market, prompted yet another repricing of rate-cut expectations and may have ruined Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s weekend. Treasurys sold off, sending yields (which move opposite to price) jumping Friday. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, the most sensitive to policy expectations, jumped 15 basis points to end at 4.87%, while the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose 14.8 basis points to 4.428%. For the purist TEchnical Analyst, teh writing was on the wall. And till 4.66% rise, they woudl still be relaxing in their Lazy Boy Chair.
TVC:US10YLong
by SWFguy
Analysing US 10-Year Yield Trends Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll DataI know we have non-farm payrolls tomorrow, but in my view, the US 10-year yield is telling a powerful story on the charts. On the daily chart, the yield has broken into 2-month lows and fallen back below the 4.35% February peak, indicating potential near-term weakness. The weekly chart shows a recent clear failure at the previous uptrend, suggesting that 4.74% was an interim peak. This implies we are likely to see short-term weakness. Unless the market breaks above the recent high of 4.74%, I maintain my near- to short-term view that US 10-year yields are likely to slip back to their 20-month moving average at 4.05%. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YShort
by The_STA
TNX 10 year note here we go againThe ten year has done a double pump each time it collapsed. This time it has hit its second top, and down we go to its 50% fib, or there abouts, just as it has in the past. Election coming, gotta make thin gs better than they seem and are. Lower rates in July .25, just a start, then another .25 in September, and then another in November. If they wait until September, the effects of lowering wont be felt by real estate in time to have the affect they want on voters. Commodities will surge, because inflation is still not under control, and this will actually make that worse. In fact it will cause home prices to surge up also. And with brics hitting in October, Gold is gonna skyrocket, silver follows. Idiots. All to stay in power, and cover all the lies with that power, and by that power. They cannot afford to loose. In fact if this doesn't work, along with stimming the economy also with easy to get HLOC loans starting in July (yep Freddie Mac gonna back second mortgages - to squeeze every last drop of equity out of those inflated priced homes - wait didn't we do something similar in 2008?) , its WW3, to cover it up and delay elections. What a world. God bless us all.
TVC:US10YShort
by claydoctor
Treasury Yields Search SupportYields on the US 10-Year seem to have broken the January uptrend, threatening another test of key support at 4.26/32 - a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 1998 low-close, and the 61.8% retracement of he 2000 Decline. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a break / close below needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway here. Resistance now eyed at the yearly high-week close (HWC) at 4.66 with a breach / weekly close above 4.75/83 ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption. Michael Boutros @MBForex
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXcom
The Bond DilemmaThis is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential milestone for a scenario in which in case it is hit, and only in this scenario, a pivot point might be expected at the marked time stamp. The marked price level is also relevant in case a correction is formed near it, leading to a potential end of it, with a candlestick potential reversal pattern that can signal an opportunity to jump on the action of the next wave. We use Japanese Candlesticks in our analysis to compute the tendencies of the market, the sentiment, the overall context of each wave, but also to assess any potential weakness in a wave (useful and required for position management), or a complete reversal. While the obvious scenarios in which a turnaround can occur at the upper rectangle, a bounce from the red one, or an incursion towards the big green one, might sound appealing to us, we must also not limit ourselves to such scenarios and keep an open mind for any other opportunities signaled by the candlestick analysis, and the overall context of the flows and events in the market. As usual, this project will be followed by short updates for milestones, highlights, or potential red alert scenarios (pivot points or reversals). Trade with care, and may the force of profits be with you!
TVC:US10
by UnknownUnicorn903284
5