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Government bonds

US 10Y TREASURY: more volatility ahead?The 10Y US Treasuries exhibited some higher volatility during the previous week. Nervousness prior to the release of the PCE data was evident, when yields reached their highest weekly level at 4.62%. However, as the PCE was fully in line with the market expectations, yields cooled down a bit until the level of 4,50% for one more time. Shifts in investors sentiment will continue to be impacted by broader economic conditions and market forecasts, in line with significant policy developments. Economic data which will be posted in the week ahead are non-farm payrolls and unemployment data for May. In case of any surprises on this side, the market might react again with a new jump in Treasury yields. However, in case of no-surprises, the yields should continue their relaxation. Still, the first Fed's rate cut continues to be the major topic on financial markets for the future period.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Long term perspectiveThe short term pull back can be an effect due to the upcoming interest rate this upcoming june, and this pull back is a good sign of buying opportunity for long-term. The key point in here is that the bond is set to move downward means the dollar might also fall and so the stocks will do the opposite direction. Dollar cost averaging I believe is the best strategy for now due to uncertainty of when will the market executw the direction that we are eyeing. This is a pov, an speculation, invest at your own risk.
TVC:US01YLong
by IMODERAT0RI
Forecasting the US 10-Year Yield: Insights for Q2 and Q3Traders, as we navigate through the second and third quarters, understanding the potential movements of the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y becomes increasingly crucial. Join me as we analyze the factors shaping the bond market and anticipate the trajectory of the 10-year yield in the coming months. I'm excited to share a comprehensive outlook, encompassing a short-term surge to 4.625%, a subsequent retracement to 4.3%, and finally, a bold move up to 5% by the end of July. TVC:US10Y Prepare for market turbulence! With inflation data grabbing the spotlight, brace yourself for a potential seismic shift in the financial landscape. As inflation data becomes the talk of the town, all eyes turn to the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y , which stands on the brink of a surge towards the pivotal 4.625% threshold. We're in for a wild ride as inflation data takes center stage and sets the stage for market volatility. Reasoning: Economic Recovery Outlook: Assessing the pace and trajectory of economic recovery will be paramount in forecasting the US 10-year yield. Keep an eye on key indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, employment figures, and consumer sentiment surveys. Inflation Expectations: Rising inflation expectations can put upward pressure on bond yields as investors demand higher returns to offset the eroding purchasing power of their investments. Monitor inflation data releases and central bank statements for insights into future policy actions. Profit-Taking Opportunity: In anticipation of the yield surge, I'm eyeing profit-taking opportunities on USD pairs. The heightened yield environment could attract investors seeking higher returns, driving up demand for the USD in the short term. Inflation Data Surge: As inflation data takes center stage, the US 10-year yield is poised to surge towards the critical 4.625% threshold. This anticipated increase in bond yields is likely to trigger a ripple effect across the forex market, particularly impacting USD pairs. Global Economic Trends: Global economic trends and geopolitical developments can also impact the US 10-year yield. Factors such as international trade dynamics, monetary policy decisions by major central banks, and geopolitical tensions can influence investor sentiment and bond market movements. As we journey through the second and third quarters, let's stay proactive and informed to capitalize on opportunities in the bond market. Join the discussion as we navigate the intricacies of bond yield forecasting! #US10YearYield #Forecasting #BondMarketAnalysis 📈📉💡
TVC:US10YLong
by mackmackeyy
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
🌕DOOMSDAY POST #236🌖 : THE GREAT RESET🌗MAKE OR BREAK🌒Okay lets break it down ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ Technical analysis is a very important factor in prediction, despite the fact we like to downgrade and bruise the egos of traders who are overly reliant on it of traders but lets put the jokes aside its all just data and interpreting it is the objective history repeats itself simple That said im going to be predicting the coming interest rates by predicting the TVC:US10Y (similar beta in trend) which will lead to strengthening TVC:DXY and large capital outflows from emerging economies experiencing foreign investment boom resulting in one big financial doo-doo aka RECESSION i know nothing new under the sun and i 100% live by it, but with the amount of new variables to filter in i feel like this might be bigger than we anticipate or might just be brushed under the rug as if nothing happend after experiencing a big retracement of sorts in the markets but not big enough to lose our shxxs the significance of the variables as a result of their magnitude is what concerns me and their impact to the panic which i also suspect could work in the markets favour for some reason WARS and the increasing division among allied nations Market liquidity (more participants) Social media and changing social standards (the consumers livelihoods) US debt ceiling US Real estate mortgage rates Shift in power dominance (China) LET ME KEEP IT SHORT 4 NOW
TVC:US10Y
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
10Y yields - Elliott Wave count points to further downsideFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like more weakness should be seen on the 10Y yields after the end of the corrective wave B (or wave 2). Since that top at 4.74%, we have seen a five wave decline which was followed by a three wave advance (it could still be developing). I believe the 5-wave decline was wave 1 of a 5-wave impulsive decline that could take yields to 3.50%, where wave C would be equal to A. This view is negated if we break above the aforementioned top of wave B.
TVC:US10YShort
by tchamoun
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE data is coming From week to week investors are shaping the sentiment in line with the latest available data on the US inflation and probability of when the Fed might make its first rate cut during the course of this year. Expectations from the first quarter of this year are turned toward September, where the CME FedWatch Tool is now showing that traders are currently pricing around 50% probability for this period and 63% probability for the rate cut in November. There are also some significant names on the market, who are publicly noting their expectation that the Fed most probably will not cut interest rates during this year. All this needs to be digested by the market, so some volatility might continue in the future period. This is especially relevant for the week ahead, for when US April PCE data are set for a release. The 10Y benchmark was moving within a relatively short range during the previous week, between levels of 4.4% and 4.49%. It could be expected that the market will open on Monday around 4.5%, however, there is no indication that the yields can go higher from this level. Certainly, any surprises on PCE data might change it. At this moment, charts are more oriented toward downside, with higher probability that levels modestly below 4.45 could be tested for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10YR yields approaching symmetrical triangle formationKey Pivot to reach Apex which would result in Breakout is around US Election period.(Nov start) 1) Election Outcome favourable and CPI under control (fed cuts) - Yields drop further 2) Election outcome not favourable & CPI under Control - Yields to move up in medium term (above 4.467% level) & throwback to apex. 3) Election outcome favorable & CPI increases - Yields to move down in medium term below 4.467% & pullback to apex level.
TVC:US10YShort
by Lifelonglearn
We have a Grey Rhino here - Markets are driven by ignoranceThe US long-term bonds have hit new lows, the yield curve has been inverted for two years now, and inflation remains uncertain, meaning interest rates may not ease at all. Yet, stock markets are reaching new highs. We have a "grey rhino" in this market. A grey rhino is a large and visible animal that cannot be ignored. Try not to get too close to them because when they start charging, we can never outrun them. In this market context, we face a big, obvious problem that investors completely ignore until it becomes a crisis. It's different from a "black swan," which is a rare and unpredictable event. When we recognize that there are problems many do not understand, we have already won half the battle. U.S. Treasury Bonds Futures & Options Ticker: ZB Minimum fluctuation: 1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US02YShort
by konhow
5
US two-year yields climbed four basis points to 4.87%.The latest minutes had more hawkish undertones than the market was expecting. "Participants at the meeting assessed it would take longer than previously anticipated to gain greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably to 2%." "Various participants mentioned willingness to tighten policy further should risks to outlook materialize and make such action appropriate." Though it largely repeated rhetoric used by FOMC officials after the latest policy meeting, US stocks still weakened while the dollar and Government bond yields strengthened It is unlikely to make a material difference to the long term outlook for US policy, as is reflected by little change in US interest rate futures. The Hawkish undertones can be justified given the lack of the April CPI data before the minutes were recorded. The stock market fell during regular trading hours as the most recent Federal Reserve minutes indicated that officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates. After fighting for direction for most of the session, the S&P 500 fell sharply as several Fed officials expressed concern about the extent to which policy is constraining the economy - but the minutes also indicated policy "was regarded as restrictive. Treasuries were under pressure, with shorter maturities underperforming. US two-year yields climbed four basis points to 4.87%. The dollar rose, weakening the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.
TVC:US02YShort
by Adipong