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US 10Y TREASURY: digesting Fed`s narrative Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some relaxation in 10Y Treasury yields, so they moved from 4.34% as a highest weekly level toward the supporting 4.2%. Current question is whether yields are preparing for a move toward levels from the beginning of March, when they were standing at 4.0%? On a long run, they will certainly make this move, however, probably not during the week ahead. The reason is that markets take time to digest all the information received, and then make a decision on a clear move. In this sense, for the week ahead the most probable scenario is that 10Y Treasury yields will take some time to test the 4.2% before they decide for a move toward the lower grounds.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Ten Year Yields: Potential OutcomesThis is the yearly perspective Ten-year Treasury. Note the break of the secular downtrend and the push above the 3.35% pivot. It's worth noting that the MACD oscillator has turned higher for the first time since 1985. The basic definition of an uptrend is a market consistently defining higher highs and higher lows. For instance, a great example of a downtrend can be seen in the annual ten year Treasury chart, where over several decades yields consistently made lower lows and lower highs, defining a very clear and obvious bull market (yields down/prices up). For bonds to begin defining a secular bear (bond prices down/yields up) will require yield to set back from a high pivot, define a higher low pivot, and subsequently make a substantive new high. From that point, tentative annual and monthly trendlines and channel projections can be drawn and Fibonacci and point-and-figure price projections made. Importantly, this structure would define a secular bear and place weekly and monthly momentum in harmony with annual momentum. I fully expect this transition to occur over the next 12-18 months. The biggest question in my mind is whether last October's 4.98% high print marked the terminal point for the bearish structure that has built since the 0.40% low. I suspect that is indeed the case and that by midyear yields will be falling. But there is also a reasonable case for one final push higher, into the stronger resistance zone around 5.25%, before subsequently setting back and defining the higher low. Given this view, the evolution of the weekly chart over the next few months becomes particularly important. Conclusion: The next few weeks should represent a significant juncture in the daily, and potentially the weekly chart. The market has been generally consolidating over the last several months and the breakout of the pattern could be meaningful. For shorter term traders the direction out of the consolidation will likely define the direction of travel into the fall. In other words, it is a go with. If yields do break out higher I am likely to begin selling the breakouts of bear (prices down/yields higher) flags and will view short term declines in yields as selling opportunities. If lower, I will likely be a buyer of bull flags and setups (yields down/prices higher) as they develop. If the market falls away from the trendline with velocity, first solid support there is found in the 3.79% zone. I continue to see a not trivial chance of one last push higher into the 5.25-5.50% zone before beginning a major weekly and monthly perspective correction (yield down/price up) that eventually makes the higher low. And while I see an advantage to being generally bullish over the next few months (falling yields, rising prices), the analysis is tentative with only a small near-term advantage to the trade. In my own trading, I would consider it non-actionable without additional price/volume development or reasonable structure to trade against. In deference to my macro work and business cycle work, I will be a better buyer of bullish inflections in the weekly chart over the next few months as I fully expect a significant economic slowdown to develop into the end of the year. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
2
Understanding Treasury Yields And Govt BondsUnderstanding yield curve correlations is essential for traders and investors seeking diversification and hedging opportunities across forex, indices, and commodity markets. The yield curve, a graphical representation of bond yields across different maturities, provides valuable insights into interest rate expectations, economic conditions, and market sentiment. 1️⃣ Understanding Treasury Yields and Bonds: Treasury yields represent the interest rates on government-issued bonds with varying maturities, ranging from short-term Treasury bills to long-term Treasury bonds. Bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship: as bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa. The yield curve plots these yields against bond maturities, typically ranging from one month to 30 years. Understanding the shape and dynamics of the yield curve is crucial for assessing the market's expectations for future interest rates and economic growth. 2️⃣ Interpreting the Yield Curve: The yield curve can take various shapes, including normal, inverted, and flat. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher yields for longer-maturity bonds, which is typically associated with expectations of economic expansion. An inverted yield curve, on the other hand, slopes downward, indicating lower yields for longer-maturity bonds, which may signal expectations of economic recession. A flat yield curve suggests little difference in yields across different maturities and may indicate uncertainty or impending market changes. 3️⃣ Yield Curve Correlations Across Markets: Yield curve correlations can offer valuable insights into market relationships and potential diversification opportunities. For example, correlations between the yield curve and forex markets may indicate the impact of interest rate differentials on currency valuations. Similarly, correlations between the yield curve and commodity prices may reflect expectations for inflation and economic growth. By analyzing these correlations, you can identify hedging opportunities and mitigate risks across different asset classes. 4️⃣ Identifying Diversification Opportunities: Diversification involves spreading investments across different asset classes to reduce overall portfolio risk. Yield curve correlations can help identify assets with low or negative correlations, offering diversification benefits. For example, if the yield curve is positively correlated with stock market indices, you may seek to diversify your portfolios by allocating funds to assets with negative or uncorrelated returns, such as gold or government bonds. 5️⃣ Utilizing Hedging Strategies: Hedging involves taking positions to offset potential losses in existing investments. Yield curve correlations can inform hedging strategies by identifying assets that move in opposite directions under certain market conditions. For instance, if the yield curve is inversely correlated with commodity prices, traders may hedge their commodity positions by taking long positions in treasury bonds or short positions in currency pairs correlated with the yield curve. 6️⃣ Yield Curve and Forex Markets: For example, consider a scenario where the yield curve steepens, indicating expectations of rising interest rates and economic growth. In this case, currency pairs with higher interest rate differentials may appreciate relative to those with lower differentials. Traders may capitalize on this by buying currencies with higher yields and selling currencies with lower yields, taking advantage of yield curve correlations to profit from interest rate differentials. 7️⃣ Yield Curve and Commodity Markets: Alternatively, suppose the yield curve flattens, signaling uncertainty or expectations of economic slowdown. In this scenario, commodities sensitive to economic growth, such as industrial metals or crude oil, may experience downward pressure on prices. Traders may hedge their commodity exposure by taking long positions in treasury bonds, which tend to benefit from safe-haven demand during periods of economic uncertainty. Yield curve correlations provide valuable insights into diversification and hedging opportunities across forex, indices, and commodity markets. By understanding the dynamics of the yield curve and its correlations with different asset classes, traders and investors can optimize their trading and investment strategies to manage risk and capitalize on market trends.
TVC:US20Y
by WillSebastian
Analysing the US 10-Year Treasury YieldAnalysing the US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Fed Meeting Focus and Key Resistance Levels Market attention is currently fixated on the upcoming two-day Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. The expectation is for the Fed to maintain interest rates at their current level, with investors closely monitoring any updates to economic projections and interest rate forecasts by policymakers. Following a notable rally last week, the US 10-year Treasury yield has returned to a critical juncture, hovering around the key resistance level of 4.35/36. This level marks the highs seen in August 2023 and February 2024, representing a pivotal point on the short-term chart. In terms of future movement, attention is drawn to potential upward movement beyond 4.36. A longer-term analysis reveals that an established trendline now acts as resistance at 4.60. Just before this level, the 61.8% retracement of the recent downward trend sits at 4.55 (October to December 2023). For further insights, referring to the video posted on February 19th could be beneficial. Critical near-term support is identified at the March 24 low of 4.04. Additionally, the 200-day moving average provides support at 4.21, while the 55-day moving average is situated at 4.15, further underlining key support levels. #TreasuryYield #FedMeeting #InterestRates #EconomicProjections #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #ResistanceLevels #SupportLevels #Investing #technicalanalysis #lovecharts Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
US10Y - Can We Get That Last Bullish Push4.329% - 4.354% is unfinished business! A healthy retracement to 4.200% is not ruled out and would be considered as 'healthy' as price action would still be in a premium. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince
US 10Y TREASURY: rethinking timeSince the beginning of this year, until last week, the markets were certain that inflation is on the down-path and that the Fed might cut interest rates somewhere in May this year. However, the February inflation data made the markets rethink their initial assumptions. The inflation seems to be more persistent than initially estimated, in which sense, the rate cutting time by the Fed might come somewhere in the second half of this year. The market reacted on officially released data, so the 10Y benchmark yields returned a bit toward the higher grounds, reaching the level of 4.3% during Friday`s trading session. It should be considered that the week ahead might bring back some volatility. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, as well as FOMC economic projections. The market will gain more insights into the course of the potential future monetary actions by the Fed and will position accordingly. In this sense, some increased volatility might be expected. However, the level of 4.3% seems as a peak on charts at this moment, from where some relaxation might be expected, at least toward the 4.2% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
3
US10Y - Will We See Lower Rates Going Into The FutureThis week was a waterfall. Next week will be the week of short seller payback! A continuation of yields trading @ CE; 4.046%, even sweeping Sellside liquidity @ 4.038% is still a possibility but for the past 4 days, the sentiment is more weighted to the downside rather than the upside, with the lowest displacement NWOG being my last line of defence @ 4.024%. Going into next weeks trading, we can see that there are many relative equal highs and short term highs that have many buy stops placed above them. My bet is smart money will look to target those buy stops. Just how far they are willing to reprice to will be something to analyse over the days next week. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince
US10Y Expect to see a new High.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target (TP = 4.600%) is intact. If the 0.786 Fibonacci level breaks, we will buy after the first 1D MA50 pullback. The 1D RSI is also posting a similar early rally sequence to April-May 2023 and December 2022-January 2023. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
US 10Y TREASURY: currently without doubtsDuring the previous week the market was pricing released job data in the US. Increasing unemployment rate boosted investors expectations that the Fed's rate cuts are round the corner. Also it has been confirmed through the Fed Chair Powell`s testimony to the Senate, with wording “at some point” during the course of this year. Although, initially, it was expected that the rate cut might occur in May, currently the odds are 80% that it might happen in June this year. Treasury yields were aligned accordingly. The 10Y US benchmark rate slipped from the level of 4.2% at the start of the week toward the 4.0% as of the weekend. Such a move was a clear sign that the market has no more doubts that the rate cuts are coming. Inflation rate for February as well as retail sales in the US are set for a release in a week ahead. Any surprises on this side might impact some volatility on the markets, however, without a significant move toward either side. The 10Y Treasuries will continue to test the 4.0% with a low probability that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, some moves toward 4.1% are more probable.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Yield Inversion US10Y-US02Y vs SPXEvery time the yield curve has gone negative, a market crash follows eventually. The trick is knowing when that happens. Nobody knows. When the yield inversion starts rising again, that's a sign it's about to pop. Better start selling out of markets into USD. DXY will start rising again eventually. Looking at the charts, my guess is 3-6 months tops before we reach a market high in a mega melt-up. Markets will become very volatile! Sell on the way up! Put in sell orders at specific prices you'd be happy with profits. Then wait for your sell orders to trigger and for the money to come in! We are at the end of a multi-year bubble which is about to pop. Protect your capital! But not yet!
TVC:US10YLong
by brian7683
Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control--- The carry trade - an investment strategy that takes advantage of differences in borrowing costs between countries - has provided bumper returns this year as most central banks have hiked rates, causing yields to rise, but at different paces. "The world's favourite carry trade," according to Bank of America, involves investors borrowing Japanese yen where the central bank has pinned rates low, and converting them to Mexican peso to buy much higher-yielding bonds. One-year bond yields are about 0.1% in negative territory in Japan , but their Mexican counterparts yield around 11%. A hypothetical $50,000 invested in a short yen, long peso carry trade for the first six months of the year would have yielded a profit of $15,100, according to Refinitiv Eikon. --- As the Japanese Bonds start to escape BoJ's Yield Curve Control - this extremely leveraged carry trade is going to explode in everyone's face.
TVC:JP10YShort
by kesor6