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Government bonds

Bond markets pricing in a possible recessionary scenarioSpread between US 2 year yield and Fed Funds Rate is one of the key indidcators to watch out for the state of the economy. Fed Funds Rate is an overnight rate. Historically, before any recessionary scenarios the spread was seen moving to negative territory, during Middle East Crisis in 1989/1990, dotcom crisis in 2000/2001 and Credit crisis in 2008. Currently, the spread is at -1.67%, second lowest in history only to 2008 Credit crisis which was at -1.76%. This leads to a strong conclusion that the interest rate markets are possibly pricing in a recessionary scenario. Interesting times ahead...
TVC:US02Y
by scorpiomanoj
2
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP implied yieldsFriday was the major trading day on the US financial markets, after the release of jobs data for August. The US nonfarm payrolls came weaker than market was expecting, which implied market higher volatility. The nonfarm payrolls came at the level of 142K, while the market was expecting to see 160K for the month. On the positive side was a modest decrease in the unemployment rate from 4,3% to 4,2% in August. Such weak figures were an indication to markets that the Fed might need to cut interest rates at least by 50 bps in order to support the economy, which might be potentially entering into a recession. Of course, the US economy is still holding in a relatively good shape, where relatively weaker jobs figures should be taken with a reserve. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was pushed to the downside, reaching the lowest weekly level at 3,65% at one occasion at Friday's trading session. Still, yields are ending the week at the level of 3,71%. The week ahead will be used by investors to digest the latest jobs data and reassess their positions accordingly. In this sense some adjustments in yields are possible to the upside. The level of 3,8% might be tested for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Direction of the 10yr yield and mortgage rates. So here is my analysis on the 10yr yield: The long-term trend is contained in a bull channel (upwards). In the short term: I believe it comes down to 3.2% percent as that was a very important level back in 2022 and 2023 so it will first act as a level of support plus it should be around the bottom of the trendline. If it can break below that level, then i do see the 10yr coming down to 2.7%. The 50,100,150,200 moving averages has almost all crossed over and are sloping down which is a bearish signal. For price action traders the chart has formed a head and shoulders top which is also why i believe it will retest the neckline. The direction of the 10yr will depend on FEDs further plans to cut rates.
TVC:US10YShort
by Betitio
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FX:BUNDEducation
by AlexSoro
1
Bond yield curve shift changeBSE:754GS2036 Nothing technical about this trade but the very basics of profiting from fixed income security analysis We know that the stock markets are at an all time high and valuations seem to be getting steeper day by day, we also know that we are going to be entering a rate cutting environment for the coming future initiated by the Federal reserve So predicting that a similar suit will be followed by the RBI, Long term duration bonds would benefit from the convexity effect the most and interest rate cuts will shoot the bond prices further, also this investment contains very little to know risk because it is a government sector bond and at the current price an approximate YTM of 6.8 - 7% will be achieved My forecast is that interest rate cuts will take place in India soon enough, on top of that, having a flight to safety security like the G-sec bonds will also be beneficial considering that we are at very high market levels. If you agree, do consider buying G-sec bonds not only for the annual 7% return but actually to capitalize on the forecast that there will be future interest rate cuts in India in the coming 1-1.5 yrs.
BSE:754GS2036Long
by SNCtradess
US10Y - Playing With New Week Opening GapsWith Sellside delivering, the expectation was for a retracement to target the previous weeks trading range which never came to fruition. Instead, Thursday delivered into a Sellside imbalance buyside inefficiency, failing to reach into the NWOG, indicating signs of weakness before Friday came about and delivered a bearish inside day candle. I believe there is unfinished business down at 3.763%. I have my eyes on the 25% quadrants within the volume imbalance
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
US 10Y TREASURY: adjusting for a rate cutAfter Powell`s the “time has come” for the Fed to pivot, and the latest PCE data, markets were adjusting their expectations for the level of Fed's rate cuts in the coming period. The Julys PCE data came surprisingly lower from market expectations, of 2.5% on a yearly basis, compared to 2.6% expected by markets. At the same time, investors are considering both personal income, which was higher by 0.3% in July, and personal spending which was higher by 0.5% for the month. The 10Y treasury yields started the previous week around 3.78%, however, they are ending it at 3.90%. Highest weekly level was 3.92% on one occasion. The week ahead might also trigger higher volatility. The Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for August are scheduled for a release, where any surprises might induce higher market moves. However, at the current point, there is some probability that the level of 4.0% might be tested, but not higher grounds. There is also a potential for a short reversal, but not too lower from current levels.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Yield Curve Inversion: A Warning Sign You Can't IgnoreThe yield curve, which shows the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates on government bonds (US10Y-US02Y). In normal market conditions, this number should be positive because the interest that investors require on 10Y bonds is higher than the interest required on 2Y bonds. Interest is a value of risk perception. Higher risk of default means higher required interest on bonds. As seen on the chart, the moment that the yield-curve "un-inverts" (yellow circles) is a critical market indicator that can often predict upcoming recessions. In the last 35 years, the un-inversion has always preceded a dump in stock prices and a recession. Seeing this chart, it's not too far-fetched to assume that the world will go into a recession at some point in the next 1-2 years.
TVC:US10Y
by FieryTrading
4
Yield Curve De-Inverting: A Bearish September IndicatorFlying under the radar for much of this month is the spread between the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year note. The gap is now just five basis points, having traded at negative 0.5ppt as recently as June 25. As we enter September, notoriously the worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500, if we see short rates continue to fall while the 10-year holds steady, I assert that it would be a bearish indicator for the S&P 500. Here’s how it might play out: if we see a weak payroll report on Friday, September 6, then chances are bad news will be seen as bad news, resulting in a flight to safety in the Treasury market. Of course, intermediate-term notes could see significant upside pressure, leading to a drop in the 10-year. The next key report following the August NFP update is the CPI report later in September. After today’s in-line PCE numbers, there should be a firm beat on where inflation stands. Now that earnings season is over, the focus will turn back to the macro. Considering that the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remains sharply in the red, we need to see better economic data to help support the growth narrative looking ahead. Sure, the Q2 second update on US real GDP growth was solid, and the Q3 tracking numbers are sanguine, but the market will be forward-looking. So, keep your eye on the 2s10s spread—a yield curve disinversion during this spooky seasonal stretch could bring about volatility.
TVC:US10YShort
by mikezaccardi