The yield Curve almost Inverted again while Inflation soaredThe yield Curve almost Inverted again while Inflation soared. The worst thing for the risk assets like equity is full of participants who now need to face the Fed Fund Rate being hiked up by the Fed, which is currently under more pressure to increase Fed Fund Rate against higher Inflation which is 8.6% released this week. In contrast, the 2-year bond yield goes up this week.
That means three things:
1. The higher rate, the higher the "cost of money" - Bad things for Risk Assets
2. The spread of 10 yr treasury yield minus 2 yr treasury yield almost goes down to negative, which means short-term bond yield has potential higher than long-term. Once 10yr-2yr is negative, the inverted yield curve occurs.
3. the S&P 500's chart is now like 2008; the former is a Head & Shoulders, and the latter was a Double-TOP.
We are probably already in the worst stock market condition since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Whether the Fed will increase its rate or not, the stock market needs to pay back since the Fed printed a lot of money to "save" the market in early 2020. Conservatively, I won't say that the U.S. economy is plunging into a recession right now, but at least the stock market's value is into a contraction in advance. The exogenous factors like Ukraine War and China's lockdown are affecting the manufacturing of the USA. Inflation is now causing the consumption problem in such an environment, the U.S. Saving Rate is going down, and the PCE is. But if you look back in 2009 and 2019-2020, while the PCE was going down, the U.S. Saving Rate was going up, which means that the consumers in the U.S. still had spending power, unlike this time.
