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US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptBo88
"The President wants lower rates"On February 5th we heard the following from US Treasury Secretary: “The president wants lower rates,” Bessent said in an interview with Larry Kudlow, “He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” Bessent has further stated: “He wants lower rates. He is not calling for the Fed to lower rates,” Bessent said. Trump believes that “if we deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself.” “We cut the spending, we cut the size of government, we get more efficiency in government, and we’re going to go into a good interest rate cycle,” Bessent said. Currently, the bond market is calling BS on the above. IMO the only way the bond market will come down meaningfully is if and only if there is fiscal responsibility. At some point the government will understand what the bond market demands...until then we will stay higher for longer. I would not be surprised at all if the 10 year hits 5.3% this year. A doubling of the move in the lower orange box should not surprise anyone....that puts the 10 year somewhere in the 5.4% range. IMO anywhere between 5.3 and 5.6 is certainly possible and maybe even probable.
TVC:US10YLong
by Vixtine
4
US 10Y TREASURY: tariffs negotiationsAnother rollercoaster of US Treasury yields calmed down after the FOMC meeting held during the previous week. As expected, the Fed did not make any changes to the current levels of interest rates. However, in case that trade tariffs cause some harm to the US economy, the Fed is in position to react swiftly. The economy is still growing at a solid pace, as Fed officials see it, and the jobs market is relatively strong while the inflation is still on the target to reach gradually 2% in the coming period. The 10Y US benchmark yields reached lowest weekly level at 4,26% and moved to the higher grounds in the after FOMC meeting trading. They have closed the week at the level of 4,39%. Markets will spend the week ahead by digesting the latest economic data and also April inflation which is due for the release on Monday. However, the US-China trade tariffs negotiations are expected to start soon, which might bring again some higher volatility and nervousness among investors and traders on the market. As per current charts, some relaxation in the 10Y yields is quite possible, however, the impact of news related to negotiations could impact moves to both sides.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y Monthly, Weekly and Daily Bias(note ill be using the charting tool Trading view for faster annotations for multi-timeframe analysis) A. Please check relevant US Economic news that might influence price action {eco us } May 13 US Cpi & Inflation day May 15 Jobless Claims, Retail sales, PPI, Empire Mfg Index, Fed Powell Speech May 16 Housing Starts you may also access in the web and filter the high impact news feed (www.myfxbook.com) B. Monthly Range Price action is currently confined to April range high of 4.59% and range low 3.86% C. Weekly Range My Bias for the week is to target 4.43% possibly 4.489% if yield starts trading below 4.262% our bias would change. D. Daily Bias (May 12) will try to update this daily Previous day high has already been mitigated and I'm more biased to say the first weekly old high's 4.438% will be targeted
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US10Y - Yield Volatility Amid Fed Policy StanceThe 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated between 4.30% and 4.39% this week, closing at 4.382% on May 9. The Federal Reserve maintained benchmark rates at 4.50%, dismissing pressure from the Trump administration for cuts. Chair Powell emphasised persistent inflationary risks and labor market stability, reinforcing a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance. 4.400% intermediate term buyside liquidity is a point of interest going forward.
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince
The Long, Flat Road AheadWith the Federal Reserve’s rate decision in focus, I wanted to revise a previous idea that called for 6% on the 10 year T-bill, and provide a clearer read on what I’m seeing as the larger trend, which could provide important clues for the future of everything from monetary policy, to mortgage rates, and stocks. Starting with the 500R chart, I think we are seeing a clear flat correction form, with the current segment of the trend being Wave C of (B). In a flat correction, the endpoint of (B) should reach at least 100% of (A). It can also extend further or, in less common cases, only reach 90% of (A), however for the purposes of this idea I will assume the yield will retrace to the 100% level, which is just above 5%. If this were to play out, it would suggest incoming pressure to financial markets that will eventually subside, likely later in the year. Something else to look for is that if this (B) wave were to fit a Zig Zag structure, that would cause waves (A) and (B) to be of the same pattern, so we should anticipate an alternate pattern in (C), such as a flat, diagonal, or triangle. The question on everybody's mind at the moment is if/when the next interest rate cut is coming. For today's announcement, I expect there to be no surprises, which can also be supported by short term technicals. Looking at the 100R chart (right) and Daily chart (left) at the same time provides useful context. The yield bounced off the 0.618 retracement of the 4/4 - 4/11 rise (labeled as 0.382 on the fib extension) and should have upward momentum. On the contrary, the Daily chart shows resistance at what appears to be a more well-defined lower high, with imbalances below. On the 100R chart, I also have a box drawn to show the extremities of the 500R bar. I expect the yield to move higher without creating a new 500R bar - which means the max low would be just below 4.10%. A retracement to this level would lead to the yield hitting the middle line of the lower imbalance, which should be a key liquidity zone. From there, a move to the 1.618 extension would take the yield to the targeted 5%. Something else I look for when detecting reversals is divergence on the Fisher Transform oscillator. I have it on both charts, which suggests a near-term move to the downside. Divergences are even more reliable on the Range charts, so a slightly lower low on the yield occurring while Fisher makes a higher low would signal that yields are about to rise higher. Assuming we see similar action play out, this would support my fundamental prediction that FOMC will temporarily provide relief to the markets - possibly from there being no surprises or dovish comments on rate cuts. I would, however, expect this to be short lived. Since I am already calling for stocks to be near a major reversal level, I expect a sharp rise in bond yields to correspond with a more powerful sell off of stocks than what we saw in February-April. More likely catalysts could be hot CPI and/or failure of US/China trade talks. Since there isn't much left to comment about on the technical side of things, I'll leave it at that. I ultimately expect the yield to start moving to 5%, so if it starts moving higher from here (4.36% currently), it would invalidate the idea that this will make one more push lower this week. We'll see what happens. Thank you for reading and let me know what you think!
TVC:US10Y
by ap769
Will The FED cut rates? Maximum employment & stable prices were the choice of words from Jerome Powell last meeting addressing the economy. While the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in March 2025, the core PCE, which excludes food & energy, increased by 2.6%. Additionally the NY Fed's multivariate core trend suggests underlying inflation may be closer to 3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The April jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, with unemployment remaining steady at 4.2%. This robust labor market reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts. Recent tariff implementations have contributed to rising inflation expectations, with a one year outlook projecting 6.5% inflation. This complicates the Fed's decision making, as cutting rates amid rising inflation expectations could undermine its credibility. Now let's zoom out to June 2025 the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting has decreased to 37% following strong economic data. My Chart gives a great outlook on rate cut possibilities and how we can take an overall outlook on the economy based on 10 yr Government Bond. I was able to add in a few important dates along with starting & ending points of rate cuts throughout those time frames. I did not include all the rate cuts in between. However, it can still serve as a great indicator moving forward. I hope this helps and let's hope for the best in our economy moving forward.
TVC:US10Y
by jflanagan229
US 10Y TREASURY: rollercoaster, againMarket movements in a previous period are clearly showing how high uncertainty is currently among market participants. The US Treasuries for one more time took the downtrend during the previous week, clearly testing the 4,2% level with 10Y US benchmark, but Fridays better than expected jobs report, was a trigger for a move back toward the higher grounds. The lowest weekly level of 10Y yields was 4,13% on Thursday, however, the rest of the trading week the market was looking at the upside. The strong move up, brought the 10Y yields toward the level of 4,30% where yields have closed the trading week. The volatility might continue also during the week ahead. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for May 6-7th, while on Wednesday will be the interest rate decision day, and also Fed Chair Powell's address to the public. As per current market expectations, as posted by the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the Fed could leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting, considering stronger than expected jobs data posted during this week. In addition, the market is expecting that the Fed will not change interest rates until their meeting in July. At the same time, analysts are noting that it is too early to see the reflection of trade tariffs in real economy, concretely in jobs data, in which sense, they are taking precaution with current strong jobs data. In this sense, the Fed Chair Powell's speech, after the FOMC meeting will be closely watched by markets, for a standing of Fed on the current state of the US economy as well as their view on tariffs repercussions in the future period.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
10Y Note Auction & Why Markets did %10 Movement with Last Data?Hello Traders tomorrow we have 10-Year Note Auction data and I wanted to prepare a nice little information for you about this topic because the data released last month showed an immediate 10% increase and from what I saw, many people had no idea what was happening. 📌 What is the 10-Year Note Auction? The U.S. government regularly issues 10-year Treasury notes to finance its budget. The auction result reflects investor demand and long-term interest rate expectations. The yield (interest rate) that results from the auction is a key benchmark for financial markets globally. 🔄 Connection to U.S. Stocks and EUR/USD 🟢 If Demand Is Strong (Yields Stay Low): Investors are eager to buy U.S. debt, pushing prices up and yields down. This indicates confidence in the U.S. economy and little concern about inflation or rate hikes. Stock markets generally react positively. 🔴 If Demand Is Weak (Yields Rise): Investors require higher returns, possibly due to inflation fears or policy tightening expectations. This pushes yields up, increasing borrowing costs and reducing the attractiveness of risk assets. Stocks typically decline, and the dollar strengthens. 💱 Effect on EUR/USD 🟢 If Yields Rise: U.S. dollar becomes more attractive due to higher returns. Investors buy USD to invest in Treasuries. EUR/USD typically falls. 🔴 If Yields Fall: Lower yields reduce the appeal of the dollar. Investors may move capital elsewhere. EUR/USD tends to rise. 🗓️ Latest 10-Year Treasury Auction – April 9, 2025 Auction Size: $39 billion High Yield: 4.435% Expected (WI) Yield: 4.465% Outcome: Strong demand – yield came in lower than expected. 📊 Post-Auction Market Reactions 🔹 10Y Treasury Yield: Before auction: ~4.466% After auction: Dropped to ~4.38% ➝ Reflects strong investor demand and confidence in long-term stability. 🔹 S&P 500 Index: Lower yields reduce borrowing costs and support equity valuations. Investors often shift toward riskier assets like stocks when yields fall. The S&P 500 responded positively after the auction. 🔹 EUR/USD: Falling yields reduce the dollar's relative appeal. This may push EUR/USD higher, depending on other macroeconomic influences (like ECB policy or geopolitical risks). ✅ Conclusion The April 9, 2025, 10-year Treasury auction showed strong demand with a yield lower than market expectations. This led to a drop in yields, a positive reaction in U.S. stock markets, and potential downward pressure on the dollar, which may support EUR/USD.
TVC:US10Y
by UmutTrades
US10YA bond is essentially a loan made by an investor to a borrower, which can be a government or a corporation. It is a fixed-income financial instrument where the borrower agrees to pay back the principal amount (face value) on a specified maturity date and usually makes periodic interest payments called coupons to the bondholder. What Is a Government Bond? A government bond is a type of bond issued by a national government to raise funds. When you buy a government bond, you are lending money to the government in exchange for regular interest payments and the return of the bond’s face value at maturity. These bonds are often considered low-risk because they are backed by the government’s credit and taxing power. Why Do Governments Offer Bonds? Governments issue bonds primarily to: Finance Fiscal Deficits: Bonds help cover budget shortfalls without immediately raising taxes or cutting spending. Fund Public Projects: Money raised can be used for infrastructure, schools, hospitals, and other public services. Manage Debt: Governments use bonds to refinance maturing debt or restructure their debt profile. Control Monetary Policy: Central banks may buy or sell government bonds to influence money supply and interest rates. Develop Financial Markets: Issuing bonds establishes benchmark yields that help price other financial instruments and deepen capital markets Provide Investment Opportunities: Bonds offer a relatively safe investment option, encouraging savings and investment within the economy. Summary Aspect Explanation Bond A loan from an investor to a borrower with interest payments Government Bond Debt security issued by a government to fund spending Why Issued To finance deficits, fund projects, manage debt, and control monetary policy Risk Level Generally low risk due to government backing Investor Benefit Periodic interest (coupon) and principal repayment at maturity In short, government bonds are a crucial tool for governments to raise capital sustainably while providing investors with a relatively safe income stream. Difference Between Bond Yield and Bond Price and Their Effect on the US Dollar Bond Price vs. Bond Yield: The Inverse Relationship Bond Price is the current market value or price investors pay to buy a bond. It can be above (premium), below (discount), or equal to the bond’s face (par) value. Bond Yield is the return an investor earns on a bond, expressed as a percentage. It reflects the income from coupon payments relative to the bond’s current price, and can be calculated as the current yield or yield to maturity. Key point: Bond price and bond yield move in opposite directions. When bond prices rise, yields fall because the fixed coupon payments represent a smaller return relative to the higher price paid. When bond prices fall, yields rise to compensate investors for the lower price paid for the same fixed coupon payments. Why This Happens If interest rates in the market increase, new bonds offer higher coupon rates. Existing bonds with lower coupons become less attractive, so their prices drop to increase their effective yield to match market rates. Conversely, if interest rates fall, existing bonds with higher coupons become more valuable, pushing their prices up and yields down. How Bond Yields and Prices Affect the US Dollar Higher US Treasury Yields (rising yields due to falling bond prices) tend to strengthen the US dollar. This is because higher yields attract foreign investors seeking better returns on US debt, increasing demand for USD to buy Treasuries. Conversely, falling yields (rising bond prices) make US assets less attractive, potentially weakening the USD as capital flows out or seek higher returns elsewhere. The US Dollar Index (DXY) often moves in tandem with US Treasury yields because both reflect investor sentiment about US economic strength, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy. When the Fed raises interest rates, bond yields typically rise, boosting the USD. When the Fed cuts rates, yields fall, putting downward pressure on the USD. In essence: When bond prices fall and yields rise, the US dollar tends to strengthen due to increased demand for higher-yielding US assets. Conversely, rising bond prices and falling yields usually weaken the dollar.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
$US10Y making new lows. 4% upcoming. 3.5% target low.TVC:US10Y is going through a volatile period. After ‘Liberation Day’ the standard deviation if the movements in the TVC:US10Y has gone up significantly affecting the Equity and Bond indexes. This has been volatility story for the last 1-2 months. Now we are touching the midpoint of the downward sloping parallel channel which lies at 4.1 %. On the medium term the downward sloping channel indicates we can touch the Midpoint of 4.0 %. The downward spiral in the rates will continue for the foreseeable future because the Fed will decrease rates, and this will put pressure on the $US10Y. In the long term the rates will touch 3.5% by end of the year. Verdict: TVC:US10Y to 4% in near term and 3.5% by Dec 2025. Short $US10Y.
TVC:US10YShort
by RabishankarBiswal
Macro Bullish Rates?An over simplification? I hope so. The narrative fits too close for me. Needless to say, it's worth keeping an eye on. If we manage to keep interest rates low for a while but inflation creeps in again (not due to high demand but because of monetary inflation) I can see the debt spiral scenario playing out in full force. This is a chilling thought, not something my generation has been exposed to and I believe it could have a very different impact to the population than the previous cycle. The difference being of course, the inflation not being demand driven but monetary debasement driven. To me this practically means a more impoverished population that is already struggling and those holding assets will further increase their portion of the pie. There are a lot of unknows for me, as I basically know nothing about this. These are just my back of napkin thoughts. Me, trying to make sense of the world we live in because I know you can't look to anyone for the answer. Why? Frankly, I have learned that 98% of us don't know anything. Ps - I am still not taking the deflationary narrative play off the table. Population decline, low interest rates and using robots to increase GDP etc. But either way all I can see is a exponential increase in debt creation. What other option is there? Both scenarios can't possibly lead to the same outcome, can they?
TVC:US10Y
by merchtank19