I am still waiting for a credit crunch event Note RSI level once have come to the 30 level while the fed hikes. I would not hold stocks positions right now.
Government bonds
US 2 year yield bonds vs copper and gold miners .... US 2 year yield bonds vs copper and gold miners .... strong correlation for finding bottoms and tops in bond yields
US 20 Year Yield: Bearish Harami at Bearish Bat PCZThere is a Bearish Harami at the HOP level of a Bearish Bat with Impulsive RSI BAMM Confirmation. Alongside that, we also have 2 Major Squareups significantly below the current level and also an unfilled gap. If these Bearish Signals at the highs are to play along, this should be the start of an even greater retrace to fill the downside gap and to complete the square ups. This would likely come with some Bearishness in DXY and upside in the TLT which may also spillover into the IEF.
US 10Y TREASURY: to be or not to be a rate cut?During the previous period investors had been pretty confident that the Fed might cut interest rates in May, however, the latest published inflation data for January made them rethink expectations. Namely, as January inflation came higher than expected, the reaction of the Treasury yields was imminent one to the upside. This move was additionally supported by the released producers price index of 0.3% for January. The 10Y US benchmark made a move during the week from 4.15% up to 4.31%.
In the week ahead there are FOMC Minutes scheduled for a release. In case that there is no news that the market did not priced in until now, then it might be expected some further volatility on the market. In the opposite case, some relaxation in Treasury yields should be expected, but not the significant ones. It could rather be a move toward the 4.2%.
US 10Y Yield Faces pivotal Resistance.The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently encountering significant resistance at the levels of 4.335 and 4.36, marked by peaks observed in 2022 and August 2023. This resistance zone also aligns with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. There are indications that the market is exerting considerable pressure at this juncture: price action is showing persistence, and a buy signal has emerged on the Directional Movement Index (DMI) with the positive directional indicator (+DI) surpassing the negative directional indicator (-DI).
Where will it go to above 4.36?
Looking at the longer-term chart we can see an old trendline now offers resistance at 4.53, which co-coincides beautifully with the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down, which also lies at 4.53.
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us 10 yrtesting
think im having mike issues.
2.11 is the floor on 10yr.
looking for 2.99 at the least.
1yr vs 3 month yieldMarket priced in rate cuts for later this year based on the December Dot Plot, but you can see that the market has started to price that back out because of CPI and PPI numbers. PCE release on Feb 29th, and Fed meeting in March with a new Dot Plot.
The Fed once again f'ed up by showing rate cuts in their Dot Plot, we'll see if they screw up again. Appears that Powell isn't the only village idiot, he's got company there at the Fed, lol. There gonna figure out that they can't SCHEDULE a rate cut, it should only happen when necessary.
This is how rebound inflation happens, the Fed did it with their Dot Plot. Morons. The incompetence is staggering.
US Treasury Head and Shoulder Pattern visible May be potential drop will start soon. Head and Shoulder Pattern Visible in daily chart.
Would like to know your opinion
US10Y - Weekly Buyside Attack! #1Throughout the week, rates has been predominantly bearish until a break in market structure occurred on Wed 7th Feb 24, 9:00AM, sweeping 6th Feb 24 - 15:00PM sellside before swiftly repricing higher, targeting the prior highs @ 4.169% and rallying up to where we are today.
Studying price action throughout this week, it can be observed that a liquidity void has been formed (highlighted in blue on the 1H timeframe) and throughout the week, US10Y has respected it as a resistance (as seen @ 7am on Wednesday 7th), Thur 8th, 13:00PM as well as Fri 9th, 8:00AM indicating that there is a lot of sell stops below the 4.127% region.
I am currently looking for higher rates at the moment, targeting 4.3%, following the bullish trend that kicked off from sellside was swept last Wednesday when equities opened @ 9:00AM
Interest Rates are paramount to the movement of all asset classes, hence the reason why I place such importance on it even though I do not trade it.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Dire warning by $JPM CEO - We've been saying this for some time.Good Morning Update!!!!!!!
The real #economy is NOT represented by #equities or other public investments.
NYSE:JPM CEO has been vocal on what has been happening but this is his most dire warning in some time. Personally, am shocked this gets air play.
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#yield pumping a bit after "hotter" #inflation than expected reported.
2 things we've been saying for some time!!!!!!!
Be in #stocks but, Have Hard assets!!!
#gold #BTC #silver
Pls see our profile for more info!!!
The Yield Movement Since Peak in 4Q23I want to check which series give the highest Yield to Maturity among Indonesia Government Bonds
SG10Y suggesting another round of volatility Track record of tracking the SG10Y yields in giving heads up to the S&P500 or US market direction has been quite uncanny...
This time, the technical outlook for the SG10Y is suggesting a breakout, and in doing so, should see market volatility to the downside.
MACD is suggesting a potential breakout, as is a recent close to the high and breaking the Fibonacci fan resistance.
Any quick pop up would be confirmation of market volatility being imminent.
The Bond Market this era Vs the Great Depression If this pattern continues to coincide, we should expect a massive downturn across all major indices over the next 5 - 10 years
CRE & Small Banks coincide with each otherSmall banks account for about 70% of #commercialrealestate.
Small #banks are considered those with assets less than $10B.
We've been bearish CRE for a long time. We believe that this sector will likely not get better anytime soon.
#interestrates are still holding fairly strong. They are at banking crisis levels or higher.
TVC:TNX
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting January inflationDuring the previous week there has not been significant news published for the current state of the US economy, so the Treasury yields remained relatively stable, moving within a short range. The US Labor department revised its data for the inflation in December from 0.3% down to 0.2%, but the US Treasuries did not react much to this news. One of the reasons might be that the week ahead will bring a release of the inflation rate for January, in which sense, December`s data might be of less importance at this moment. At the same time several Fed officials publicly noted that the Fed is resilient to cut rates too soon, in which sense, the first rate cut might be postponed from the period currently expected by the market.
The 10Y US Treasuries started the previous week around the 4.0% level, but moved to the higher grounds during the week. Highest weekly level reached was 4.19%. Yields are testing the highest level from the end of January, but without an indication that this level might be clearly breached. This increases probability for a short reversal to the down side, however, at this moment on charts there is indication for the level of 4.0%, with quite low probability that yields could go lower from this level in the coming week.
Treasury Yields look ripe for further movesCurrent state of the short and long term #Yield.
The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher.
10Yr vs 30Yr
The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but.......
The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still treasury selling pressure.
Downtrend has been broken, next wave incoming.Uptrend has commenced and we have barely begun. Generally inflation has 3 waves, and we have had our first. Rates are only up from here. Next stop is 10% ish and a 618 retrace.
Wishing for 5% to be terminal rate was a joke.
US10Y: Key Moment for Stock MarketHi Trader!
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against interest rate cut bets, pushed European bond yields higher. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, followed suit, with the uptick gaining momentum after Commerce Department data showing retail sales in December grew by 0.6% month on month, above the 0.4% economists had expected in a poll. Weak demand for a 20-year bond auction also helped lift yields later on Wednesday.
💡 "December retail sales reflect an economy that, although slowing, continues to be underpinned by consumer spending," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. "For the Federal Reserve, slower consumer demand would help propel inflation to decelerate at a faster pace; however, with consumer confidence gaining momentum, the economic landscape remains on solid ground," she said in a note.
🔴 The short-end of the yield curve, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, led the move higher. Two-year yields rose about 13 basis points to 4.354%, their biggest daily increase in over a month. Benchmark 10-year yields US10Y added about four basis points to 4.104%, their highest since Dec. 13.
🔴 From a technical perspective, chart shows a bearish impulse structure forming, and this technical bounce could form the second corrective leg (wave 4) before another bearish swing (wave 5). That said, the key resistance is around 4.23, and a rally above it could invalidate the technical structure.
We correctly predicted the surge in inflation last year, but now the geopolitical context has become more complex:
(Click on chart below)
In conclusion, if this analysis is correct, Stock Markets (SP500, Russell, DJ,...) should see another rally with potential new High Top...
Trade with care
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Looking at short & long term yieldsGood Morning Update
Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields.
Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels.
The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels.
The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels.
Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels?
CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV
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Digesting longer term data = 10 & 30Yr #yield.
Higher lows
Bullish moving average crossover > circles
Moving avgs trending higher
Forming small uptrend
2nd pic = WEEKLY
Back above previous uptrend
Trading under moving avgs
TVC:TNX #Gold #silver #BTC
If crude oil breaks down then USD can stop at resistanceHey guys,
Crude oil came down recently, which can help inflation to come down as well if energy market will continue to decline. In fact I see nice bearish pattern, so my assumption is that US yeilds and USD can be trading at resistance.
In this video I will also look at the chart of the 10 year US yeilds where I see greater chance for a drop to 3% rather than rally back to 5%.
Hope you will enjoy the content.
Grega
AT100The 100-year government bond is an extremely interesting investment opportunity. Bonds tend to price this recession more than stocks, so in the case of a soft landing, they should perform significantly stronger than stocks, which may have this already priced this in. Additionally, the 100-year bond, with its high duration, has extreme sensitivity to interest rates. This offers a very good opportunity to potentially benefit greatly from changes and expectations in interest rates.
$DXY, long and short term rates looking betterGood Morning! Let's get it done!
Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see?
Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit.
Do any of these look weak to you?
RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process.
Short term
#Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and the higher the chance of it breaking through.
Long term
Forming higher lows.
TVC:DXY
