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🌕DOOMSDAY POST #236🌖 : THE GREAT RESET🌗MAKE OR BREAK🌒Okay lets break it down ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ Technical analysis is a very important factor in prediction, despite the fact we like to downgrade and bruise the egos of traders who are overly reliant on it of traders but lets put the jokes aside its all just data and interpreting it is the objective history repeats itself simple That said im going to be predicting the coming interest rates by predicting the TVC:US10Y (similar beta in trend) which will lead to strengthening TVC:DXY and large capital outflows from emerging economies experiencing foreign investment boom resulting in one big financial doo-doo aka RECESSION i know nothing new under the sun and i 100% live by it, but with the amount of new variables to filter in i feel like this might be bigger than we anticipate or might just be brushed under the rug as if nothing happend after experiencing a big retracement of sorts in the markets but not big enough to lose our shxxs the significance of the variables as a result of their magnitude is what concerns me and their impact to the panic which i also suspect could work in the markets favour for some reason WARS and the increasing division among allied nations Market liquidity (more participants) Social media and changing social standards (the consumers livelihoods) US debt ceiling US Real estate mortgage rates Shift in power dominance (China) LET ME KEEP IT SHORT 4 NOW
TVC:US10Y
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
10Y yields - Elliott Wave count points to further downsideFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like more weakness should be seen on the 10Y yields after the end of the corrective wave B (or wave 2). Since that top at 4.74%, we have seen a five wave decline which was followed by a three wave advance (it could still be developing). I believe the 5-wave decline was wave 1 of a 5-wave impulsive decline that could take yields to 3.50%, where wave C would be equal to A. This view is negated if we break above the aforementioned top of wave B.
TVC:US10YShort
by tchamoun
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE data is coming From week to week investors are shaping the sentiment in line with the latest available data on the US inflation and probability of when the Fed might make its first rate cut during the course of this year. Expectations from the first quarter of this year are turned toward September, where the CME FedWatch Tool is now showing that traders are currently pricing around 50% probability for this period and 63% probability for the rate cut in November. There are also some significant names on the market, who are publicly noting their expectation that the Fed most probably will not cut interest rates during this year. All this needs to be digested by the market, so some volatility might continue in the future period. This is especially relevant for the week ahead, for when US April PCE data are set for a release. The 10Y benchmark was moving within a relatively short range during the previous week, between levels of 4.4% and 4.49%. It could be expected that the market will open on Monday around 4.5%, however, there is no indication that the yields can go higher from this level. Certainly, any surprises on PCE data might change it. At this moment, charts are more oriented toward downside, with higher probability that levels modestly below 4.45 could be tested for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10YR yields approaching symmetrical triangle formationKey Pivot to reach Apex which would result in Breakout is around US Election period.(Nov start) 1) Election Outcome favourable and CPI under control (fed cuts) - Yields drop further 2) Election outcome not favourable & CPI under Control - Yields to move up in medium term (above 4.467% level) & throwback to apex. 3) Election outcome favorable & CPI increases - Yields to move down in medium term below 4.467% & pullback to apex level.
TVC:US10YShort
by Lifelonglearn
We have a Grey Rhino here - Markets are driven by ignoranceThe US long-term bonds have hit new lows, the yield curve has been inverted for two years now, and inflation remains uncertain, meaning interest rates may not ease at all. Yet, stock markets are reaching new highs. We have a "grey rhino" in this market. A grey rhino is a large and visible animal that cannot be ignored. Try not to get too close to them because when they start charging, we can never outrun them. In this market context, we face a big, obvious problem that investors completely ignore until it becomes a crisis. It's different from a "black swan," which is a rare and unpredictable event. When we recognize that there are problems many do not understand, we have already won half the battle. U.S. Treasury Bonds Futures & Options Ticker: ZB Minimum fluctuation: 1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US02YShort
by konhow
5
US two-year yields climbed four basis points to 4.87%.The latest minutes had more hawkish undertones than the market was expecting. "Participants at the meeting assessed it would take longer than previously anticipated to gain greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably to 2%." "Various participants mentioned willingness to tighten policy further should risks to outlook materialize and make such action appropriate." Though it largely repeated rhetoric used by FOMC officials after the latest policy meeting, US stocks still weakened while the dollar and Government bond yields strengthened It is unlikely to make a material difference to the long term outlook for US policy, as is reflected by little change in US interest rate futures. The Hawkish undertones can be justified given the lack of the April CPI data before the minutes were recorded. The stock market fell during regular trading hours as the most recent Federal Reserve minutes indicated that officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates. After fighting for direction for most of the session, the S&P 500 fell sharply as several Fed officials expressed concern about the extent to which policy is constraining the economy - but the minutes also indicated policy "was regarded as restrictive. Treasuries were under pressure, with shorter maturities underperforming. US two-year yields climbed four basis points to 4.87%. The dollar rose, weakening the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.
TVC:US02YShort
by Adipong
US10Y held the 1D MA200 and is starting a new rallyThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023 and test initially the previous Higher High of the 2-year Channel Up. Our Target is slightly below at 5.000%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
2
US 10Y TREASURY: smooth optimismInvestors are still weightening the latest inflation data posted during the previous week. Posted inflation figures were in line with the market estimate. Inflation rate reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April. By putting it into a perspective of jobs data and consumer sentiment, inventors are perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year, with currently 54% odds. This sentiment pushed the equity markets in the US, however, US Treasuries were traded in a mixed manner. Namely, the 10Y benchmark yields started the previous week around 4.5% level, and during the week were pushed to the lowest weekly level at 4.32%. Still, yields are ending the week at 4.42%. The level of 4.2% is currently tested. Market will start the week ahead trying to break the 4.2% line to the upside. Some volatility might be expected in the coming period, and data are still not completely clear in which direction the inflation in the US is heading. In this sense, there is some probability for the 4.5% level to be tested for one more time, but there is no indication that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, the easing of yields might go down to the level of 4.3% for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen. I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference.
TVC:US10YLong
by RizeSenpai
The INFAMOUS Blow Off Top!!! US10Y US02Y $TLTThe indicators from this chart which backtested to call the 1990s Gulf War recession, the Thai Baht, the 1998 LTCM, the 2000 dotcom bubble, the great financial crisis, and the COVID pandemic all before they officially happened. It is calling for whatever this next crisis is going to be called. I placed MOAB or mother of all speculative bubbles for the crisis holding name. I am sure the talking heads on TV who never saw this coming will give their two cents about how great everything is. Clearly, we have issues in society and those issues are being pasted over on the market with money printing. This isn't doom-bear BS, it's just an indicator that has front-run every single one of these black-swan events. The best way to play this is to reduce broad market exposure and sell into the big up days. Look at defensive plays like bonds, gold, and US dollars. Now that doesn't mean you can't stay net long, for that consider option spreads, but this tells you to clearly lower your exposure. NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:GLD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:IEF AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
TVC:US02Y
by rwoods187
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom. I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.
TVC:US10Y
by Mikhiavelli
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for CPIMoves in Treasury yields during the previous week are showing that the market has already priced all known information, and waiting for new ones in order to decide on a further action to the up or downside. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was moving between levels of 4.51% down to 4.42% on one occasion. The majority of deals were around the 4.5% level. It should be mentioned that a 30-year bonds auction was held the previous week, where strong demand for these bonds was evident. This demand was led by latest US unemployment data and investors expectations of rate cuts during the course of this year. In this sense, a demand for other maturities, including 10Y was left out of the focus. In a week ahead a fresh US consumer price index data will be released, which might bring back some volatility on the Treasury yields. If the CPI is higher from market expectations, then yields might be pushed to the upper side, at least 4.55%, with low probability for 4.6%. However, if the CPI data show some relaxation, then the Treasury yields will continue their current path to the downside, and the level of 4.4%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX