Bonds go down Stocks go up. The US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield goes down after each blue pivot point signal. At the same time, the SPX moves up 6 out of 7 times. The US Government Bonds should come down a bit to the middle line of the bollinger bands and the SPX might move higher a bit. by ValerianKUpdated 5
Yield CurveThe yield curve has begun its process of change, making lows higher and highs higher....Longby ManzanexUpdated 1
Yields looking crazy. 2 year has pulled back. Everything else no2 years are coming back to sanity. 10, 20, and 30 are parabolic.by curtislanoue0
10 yr Bond yields - BullishAcross the board 10 year bonds look scary. The italy 10 yr is so clear i figured id publish it. Same with Cadanian 10 yr, US 10 yr. Central banks must be shitting themselves. It'll be an interesting next week or 2.Longby RobsPlanUpdated 7
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" |...who will win? | (Part.II)The market is waiting for one of the most important events that could give a clear direction for the coming months. Today FOMC will release interest rate decision and the main players ( TVC:DXY , TVC:GOLD , VANTAGE:SP500 and FX:EURUSD ) will suffer the consequences. Even if we cannot rule out a 25bp increase, most analysts believe that a pause may be the right choice, also because the usual press conference is not scheduled for the next FOMC meeting, so the board could take advantage of this opportunity, to explain this "temporary change in direction" to the market. So, what will happen today? No I have an objective answer to this question, unfortunately I am not a guru but a simple Trader, so today we will limit ourselves to following events. Having said that, from a technical point of view, we were lucky in March because we widely predicted this increase in yield rates from 3.30% area to a new high (wave 5 for Elliottians) in Part. I of this Analysis. On weekly chart the trend is bullish and the next technical levels are around 4.46%, 4.61% and 4.7%, but today TVC:US10Y could take any direction. US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" |...who will win? | (Part.I) (Click on chart below) Trade with care Like | Share | Commentby TheAnonymousBankerUpdated 9921
Setup for a new high in 2 year yieldWe have a setup for another spiky move up in 2 year yield to a new high of the year 2023. The target for the subwave -c- of wave -iii- up = 5.365% Longby CastAwayTrader2
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting week is over?Markets spend the previous week digesting the latest information from the FOMC meeting regarding interest rates levels in the coming period, as well as FOMC economic projections for the next two years. It all created one quite a challenging week on US financial markets, as well as for the US Treasuries. The 10Y yields reached 4.5% immediately after the Fed Chair speech after the FOMC meeting on September 20th, however, during the previous week yields continued to surge further, reaching the highest weekly level at 4.67%. This could be treated as a sort of market overreaction, as yields soon returned to the level of 4.57% where they are finishing the week. Yields continued to move within an overbought momentum for a second week in a row. This adds to the high probability that yields will further move toward the 4.5% levels which is more realistic to current economic prospectus and wording supported by the Fed. At this moment on charts, a 4.3% level could be the next target for 10Y yields, however, it might take some week or more until yields clearly reach this level.by XBTFX16
Final Chart for VN indexSummary VN index information. The relationship between DXY, VN-index, USD/VNDShortby trungson917
US10year yieldHi my followers as i have said before i am bearish on us 10 year bond yield , So this is another fact why i am on that camp always ntice to price patterns on the charts .....dont go across them easily ... Gooooood LuuuuuuckShortby Logical_Markets0
There is a risk that $US10YR may further breach the 5% rate The US 10-YR Government Bond Yield is at risk of breaching further to as high as 5% which will then weign in more on the other safer haven yellow precious metal #Gold. A rising yield for the past years since Covid erupted has brought pressure on both equity markets and Gold was never an excuse for this.Longby marketpainterPH440
Why Gold shall keep falling? Real yields.dear fellows. we believe gold prices are likely to keep falling, because unlike many analysts say, it is not a hedge against inflation, rather against real yields. real yields have been rising, and thus, gold prices should fall. in this video idea, we show how much divergence currently exists between these charts, and why in the next couple of weeks one can expect further losses in the gold price. thank you for your attention. best regards.Short04:59by greenfield_br6611
US20YR - The end is in sightBonds have been selling off at unprecedented rates for unprecedented lengths. The yield curve as started the un-invert indicating the recession is less than a year out. The question remains if rates will remain "higher for longer" or if the flattening will include a swift fall in rates due to recessionary pressures, possibly leading to deflation. If Steven Van Meters and Harry Dent 's predictions are (eventually) true then a play in TLT or TMF is warranted and would lead to gains in the multiples.Shortby Merit-Ocrasse3
BArt ThingssssLooks like the bart is a real possibility here. This pattern is famous by now, you all know what it is.Longby MikeMMUpdated 2218
#us30y #bonds #yields #dxy #elliottwave short welcome bullsThis count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.Shortby alibadshah88Updated 0
US BONDS 10 YEARS YIELD (daily)As you see the diametric pattern is completed and we can expect to that begin a downtrend.Shortby mahdi-sheykh0
US bonds 10 years yield As you see the diametric pattern is completed and we can expect to that begin a downtrend.Shortby mahdi-sheykh0
The DXY and Yields are Set up to Make a Midday ReversalThe DXY and the 30 Year Yield have been on the decline for most of the day but are now showing signs of reversing back up at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat and a Bullish Shark in the form of MACD Bullish Divergence and PPO Confirmation, respectively. When these two start to rise again it is very likely that the QQQ start to continue down as it is trading at the PCZ of a Bearish Deep Crab and has formed Potential MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence and if it starts to go down it will also give us Bearish PPO Confirmation which from there may result in a fast move down to make a lower low. All of this will likely be triggered by whatever the Fed has to say today.Longby RizeSenpai116
Inverted Yield US10Y-US02Y==Late 1970s to Early 1980s: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted several times between the late 1970s and early 1980s. Economic Outcome: The U.S. experienced two recessions during this period: one in 1980 and another in 1981-1982. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experiencing declines during these recessions. ==Late 1980s: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 1988 and early 1989. Economic Outcome: This inversion was followed by a mild recession in 1990. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a downturn in 1990, with the DJIA dropping by around 20%. ==Late 1990s to Early 2000s: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in 2000. Economic Outcome: The U.S. entered a recession in 2001, partly due to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market began a decline in 2000, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index dropping significantly due to the collapse of many internet-based companies. ==2006-2007: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 2006 and remained inverted into 2007. Economic Outcome: The Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009, triggered by a housing market crash and subsequent financial crisis. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market experienced a significant decline, with the DJIA losing more than 50% of its value from its peak in 2007 to its trough in 2009. ==2019: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in August 2019. Economic Outcome: While many analysts were concerned about a potential recession, the U.S. economy remained resilient in 2019 and early 2020. However, the unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a global economic downturn. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a sharp decline in early 2020 due to the pandemic, with the DJIA dropping by over 30% in a matter of weeks. It's essential to note that while the inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of recessions in the past, the exact timing between the inversion and the onset of a recession can vary. Additionally, other factors, such as global events, fiscal policies, and technological shifts, can also play significant roles in economic outcomes.Shortby MidasAlgo10
2 year yield keeps pushing higherThe final exhaustive push higher in a subwave -c- of wave -v- up quite often comes as a strong rally resembling the heart of the rally in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up. Longby CastAwayTrader2
Inverted curve V.S S&P = Economic crisis"History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes." Shortby Ed_Ale3
Why we expect EURUSD SPX to keep falling.Dear fellows. In this short video we present our case that EURUSD tracks US10Y since 2020 on an inverse relationship. We also expect the yield curve to keep steepening, and by assuming Fed funds rate "higher for longer", US10Y is expected to rise further. Higher US10Y, thus, implies in lower EURUSD and SPX, as well as other major market indexes. The particular dynamics of each does not ensure a day to day follow up, however, eventually they do catch up. Thank you very much for your time. Critics and suggestions are welcome. Best regards.Short11:24by greenfield_br332
US 10 Year Yield - hitting resistanceYields Surging on the long end. Hitting resistance. Will this level hold and give the equity markets a breather to bounce? If this continues to surge you will see a massive selloff in equities at some point as the bond market is pricing in entrenched inflation. by Trading-Capital110
US05Y-EU05Y EURUSD, just went long $FXEMy two most recent posts were identifying a potential upcoming trade idea behind Euro bouncing back vs. USD soon, the chart today has made it looked more prime for reversal, finding ever increasing support, and slightly weakening 5 year yields in both Euro and U.S.. The difference between the two looks like it may start to contract a little in the coming weeks as well, which should send Euro higher. As a slight update to my previous post linked at the bottom, I've updated that chart to include the EU05Y and US05Y yields on the same scale, and the difference between the two (US05Y-EU05Y) on a different scale on the left. It gives a little more complete picture that may help pick out the longer term trend shifts. Zoomed in some on just the EURUSD, seeing how it's seemingly bottomed out, finding support here, and attempted a sharp rally this morning that was equally sharply rejected, but seems like this it's found support again and the trend for the coming weeks may well be a reversal to the upside for the Euro. On the 5 year bonds side of things, both have set slightly lower highs than last week, with there being a bigger drop for the US 5 year than the Euro. Possible we're seeing a slow down of those yields going higher, with the US possibly losing a little more yield than the Euro. Seems prime for a reversal after more than a month and a half of the Euro sliding. With that in mind, I did go long some AMEX:FXE 20 Oct 23 101 strike calls this morning. A little risky and out of the money with some time left, but if this rallies as I hope it will, the payoff should be pretty nice. Trading price at the time of trade was about $98.81. Ask side was 0.30. Contracts in the money at the moment trade for more than 1.00.Longby dieseldubUpdated 4