US 10Y TREASURY: the last call for 4.2%?Although the US equity market was strongly supported during the previous week, where one of the reasons was expectation on forthcoming rate cuts, still, the US 10Y Treasuries reacted in a bit different manner. Yields were testing the level of 4.2%, after successfully breaking the 4.0% level. As per CME's FedWatch tool, traders on the futures market have decreased their expectations for the rate cut in March this year. The percentage dropped from 71% to 53% within a week. This came after the jobless claims were released, which were at its lowest level since 2022. A too strong jobs market might be an indication of increased spending and in this sense, potential for the increased inflation, which might impact Fed's decision to postpone rate cuts for the second quarter of this year.
The level of 4.2% will be tested at the beginning of the week ahead. However, there is a relatively low probability that this level might be breached in a week ahead. In this sense, yields might look toward the 4.0% support line to test it once again.
