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Yield Inversion US10Y-US02Y vs SPXEvery time the yield curve has gone negative, a market crash follows eventually. The trick is knowing when that happens. Nobody knows. When the yield inversion starts rising again, that's a sign it's about to pop. Better start selling out of markets into USD. DXY will start rising again eventually. Looking at the charts, my guess is 3-6 months tops before we reach a market high in a mega melt-up. Markets will become very volatile! Sell on the way up! Put in sell orders at specific prices you'd be happy with profits. Then wait for your sell orders to trigger and for the money to come in! We are at the end of a multi-year bubble which is about to pop. Protect your capital! But not yet!
TVC:US10YLong
by brian7683
Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control--- The carry trade - an investment strategy that takes advantage of differences in borrowing costs between countries - has provided bumper returns this year as most central banks have hiked rates, causing yields to rise, but at different paces. "The world's favourite carry trade," according to Bank of America, involves investors borrowing Japanese yen where the central bank has pinned rates low, and converting them to Mexican peso to buy much higher-yielding bonds. One-year bond yields are about 0.1% in negative territory in Japan , but their Mexican counterparts yield around 11%. A hypothetical $50,000 invested in a short yen, long peso carry trade for the first six months of the year would have yielded a profit of $15,100, according to Refinitiv Eikon. --- As the Japanese Bonds start to escape BoJ's Yield Curve Control - this extremely leveraged carry trade is going to explode in everyone's face.
TVC:JP10YShort
by kesor6
Bearish Yields Could Send USDollar LowerUS Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%. At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in 2023. Currently we can see some recovery for the USdollar, as Yields are in a corrective rally within wave B, but as soon as wave C shows up, USdollar can be back to bearish mode. If we respect technical analysis, Elliott wave theory and positive correlation in the markets, then Yields could send USdollar - DXY lower away from important trendline connected from the highs soon.
TVC:US10YShort
by ew-forecast
US10Y - Playing Hot Potatoes With RiskGoing into this weeks trading, I was exuberant about the third profit @ 4.40% but the highest yields went up to was 4.321% before a shift in market structure occurred on a smaller timeframe. Currently closed @ 4.184% with a higher possibility of macro EQ @ 4.137% being the next target. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
US10Y Touched its 1D MA50. Time to rebound?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the new Higher High. As a result, we are bullish as long as it closes the 1D candles above it, with our 5.000% Target intact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
2
Pivotal Point for Rates. Lower Rates Can Mean Lower Equties. I know the idea of lower rates / lower equities sounds silly by classic theory but if you close social media and go through the historic events you'll see it's more common. When rates are rising we usually rally for at least 3-6 months and more commonly somewhere like a year. The classic sell signal at the top of big trends has been price selling off a bit while rates topped and the crash event has always come with a dropping of rates. And that makes this all very interesting. I've previously described how we're at a major inflection point for trend decision in SPX. We have a pending short signal forming in yields. Butterfly extension into the top and we're now into the critical fib supports levels. If we can not make a low on the 76 (Close to where we are) we might be due to see a sharp drop in rates. Ever since the dot-com bubble, falling rates after parabolic markets have been a really big red flag for trouble to come. This would also link in with the BTC trend failure thesis. At this point it's only rational to expect BTC to be risk correlated and under perform the indices in risk off situations. This has been the recurring theme since 2018.
TVC:US10YShort
by holeyprofit
US 10Y TREASURY: it`s clear to the market Based on the moves from Treasury yields during the previous week, it seems that Fed's rate cuts are coming. This is what the market is saying, however, we still need this input from the Fed. At this moment, it is irrelevant whether it will be at March`s FOMC meeting or later within the course of this year, the important thing is that the market is now certain about it. Still, what we do not know at this moment is how many rate cuts will occur. The 10Y benchmark rates dropped down during the week from 4.31% down to 4.18%. This was a significant move toward the downside, which sent a signal over market certainty. In a week ahead it could be expected that the market will test the 4.20% level. A move toward the lower grounds could be questioned at this moment, taking into account fundamentals set for a release within a week ahead. There are non-farm payrolls for February and unemployment rate data, which could bring back some volatility on the market. There is also Fed Chair Powell testimony on March 6th, which the markets will watch very closely. However, based on current charts, there is a low probability that yields could go back to previous levels, they will rather oscillate around 4.20% levels.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y - Was My Overall Bias Burned?We started with continued upside movement with Friday creating the shift in market structure. My overall bias was bullish and still is on a macro perspective up to 4.40%. Thursday and Friday were the days that we witnessed buy stop raid before a reverse which gives me the idea that we are in the cards for some form of continued retracement, at least up to the 4.2% region. From a intra-day timeframe perspective, the NWOG upper and lower displacement I the area I would be looking at to expect tome form of rejection. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
US 10Y TREASURY: rate cut on a long stick It seems that the market would have to wait longer than initially anticipated for the first rate cut. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed during the previous week showed that Fed officials are optimistic regarding the outcome of already taken monetary measures, however, they would like to be certain that the inflation is clearly on the road toward the targeted 2%, before they decide to make a move toward lower reference rates. The market reaction was further increase in Treasury yields, where the 10Y benchmark reached the highest weekly level at 4.34%. Yields are ending the week modestly lower, at the level of 4.25%. In the week ahead there is PCE data scheduled for a release. In case of any negative surprises in data, the Treasury yields might move to the higher grounds, at least till the level of 4.4%. Still, in case that there are no surprises, then there will be further relaxation in yields, at least till the 4.20% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
SG10Y forewarns of a blowout top in the S&P500... The SG10Y had been previously established to be a reliable indicator of the US S&P500 index, and US markets in general. It has had a 100% read accuracy in forewarning of imminent volatility, particularly when the SG10Y breaks out of trendlines. So the end of the week saw Nvidia spark a rally in the S&P500, and closing at record highs for the week. Usually, I would be excited about this, but the SG10Y break out of the Finbonacci fan trendline, as well as the correlated bearish zone for S&P500 (red box) and MACD turning more bullish again... all these tells of a blow out top on the S&P500, which we must be wary about. Clear indicator that in the coming week or two, we should see a quick reversal on the S&P500. Check out the previous linked posts to see how reliable and accurate this has been since I started tracking and reporting. Stay safe!
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
US10Y - Weekly Continued Run On Buy Stops?This week was not easy for those looking to short back down to broken resistance; 4.137%. We saw TVC:US10Y 4.196% buy stops liquidated before rejecting from a HTF 6-month bearish order block that has been respected in the past. Based on Thursday's sell stop raid, with the lows being 4.187%, we swiftly retraced before closing 50% of thew daily range @ 4.283. I am not ruling out the chance of a short term bearish run towards the upper and lower displacement new week opening gap as that could be a great area for the accumulation of longs to begin. A bearish run 4.187% would bring me back to the drawing boards as there would be a higher probability chance that my idea will get negated What do you think this means for CBOT:ZB1! My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince